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研究生:王啟璋
研究生(外文):Wang, Chi-Chang
論文名稱:「中、港自由貿易區」效益與影響──可計算一般均衡(CGE)模型之應用
論文名稱(外文):The Benefits and Influences of “China-Hong Kong Free Trade Area”─An Application of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model
指導教授:杜震華杜震華引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:國家發展研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:綜合社會及行為科學學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2003
畢業學年度:91
語文別:中文
論文頁數:136
中文關鍵詞:香港自由貿易區可計算一般均衡
外文關鍵詞:Hong KongFree Trade AreaComputable General Equilibrium (CGE)
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  本研究的目的,是就香港與中國大陸進一步的經濟整合,對香港的效益與影響,進行量化的評估。中國改革開放二十多年來,香港以「前店後廠」的模式,成功地成為中國的窗口,將深圳、珠江三角洲,以至於整個廣東省納為「大香港經濟圈」(Greater Hong Kong)的腹地,甚至結合了中、港、臺形成所謂的「大中華經濟圈」(Greater China)。1997年回歸中國之後,香港經濟更遭逢了亞洲金融風暴等重大衝擊,更面臨中國沿海城市急起直追的威脅。為了振興香港經濟,港府提出了「中、港自由貿易區」的構想,隨後正式定名為「內地與香港更緊密經貿關係安排」(Mainland/Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement, CEPA)。
  「更緊密經貿關係安排」的範圍將涵蓋商品貿易零關稅、服務業提前開放、貿易投資便捷化,乃至於更廣義的經濟整合之下進行雙方經濟建設與政策的合作;而主要的困難則是香港產品、香港公司的難以界定,以及開放時程的緊迫。
  本研究應用可計算一般均衡(CGE)架構的全球貿易分析計畫(GTAP)模型模擬中,發現服飾、紡織、其他輕製造業、電子等部門在中、港間關稅撤除下,獲得的正面影響最大,動力車輛及零件、其他運輸設備、皮革及鞋類所受負面影響最大。由於此一模擬僅撤除商品貿易之貿易障礙,因而使得香港的資源產生偏向製造業的重配置,對於服務業造成負面衝擊;此外,由於香港已屬自由港,此一自由貿易區難以再帶來進口品價格降低之利,而生產者從貿易自由化獲得的短期利益若未能進行再投資,結果反而將使得物價被抬高,未必能使實質經濟獲得成長;但若香港能繼續維持其國際化以吸引資本流入,則服務業也能因為商品貿易的增加而獲得擴展。
由於臺灣與中、港間緊密的經貿關係,模擬結果顯示,臺灣被排除在此一經濟整合之外時,紡織業、中間製造品業等傳統產業可能會受到輕微的負面影響。而中、港間原本就存在高度的整合關係,其進一步整合對於中國大陸、香港的其他主要貿易夥伴與競爭對手的影響都不大。
  若將「中、港自由貿易區」置於香港的「國際化」(Hong Kong-International)與「大陸化」(Hong Kong-China)爭論之中,可以看出此一倡議雖屬於與中國整合的「大陸化」,卻不必也不能以放棄香港的「國際化」為代價。相反地,本研究結果顯示了,此一自由貿易區的成立,在香港維持其自由開放之下,甚至可能進一步吸引國際投資人將香港作為前進中國的區域總部。
  事實上,香港的產業結構朝向服務業轉型是長期趨勢,中、港間的貿易自由化也不可能將此趨勢逆轉,但短期之下,若是能將此一貿易自由化帶來的利益,適當地作跨部門跨期間的分配,卻可能可用於緩解香港產業轉型過程中所帶來的摩擦。
The purpose of this study is to quantitatively evaluate the benefits and influences of the further economic integration between Hong Kong and Mainland China. With its “front-shop, back-factory” model, a capitalist Hong Kong has successfully served as the window to China, with the Pearl River delta as the hinterland of the “Greater Hong Kong.” In an attempt to enhance integration with China as a way to boost Hong Kong’s recent faltering economy, the government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region proposed to establish a form of “China-Hong Kong Free Trade Area,” which afterwards was formally named as “Mainland/Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement,” or CEPA, and sealed on June 29th, 2003.
The CEPA covers three broad areas: zero tariff on trade in goods, early access in certain service industries, and measures on trade and investment facilitation. The major difficulties in striking the deal were the definitions of Hong Kong products and companies, given Hong Kong’s extent of globalization and entrepôt characteristic.
This study applies a widely used Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, namely the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, to simulate the main component of the CEPA─the zero-tariff scheme. The results show that industries of apparel, textiles, other light manufactures, and electronics would be biggest winners thanks to the elimination of barriers to trade in goods, while motor vehicles and parts, other transport equipment, and leather and shoes, where Hong Kong has explicitly comparative disadvantage, would wane further. The service industries, especially trade and transportation services, would also flourish due to the expansion of trade in goods, if and only if Hong Kong manages to remain free and attractive to foreign capital. While a manufacturing-biased CEPA clearly deepens Hong Kong’s integration with the Mainland and, Hong Kong cannot afford to, and does not have to, pursue “Hong Kong-China” at the expense of “Hong Kong-International.”
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 研究目的 4
1.3 論文架構 5
第二章 香港經濟發展與中、港經貿關係概觀 7
2.1 香港經濟發展背景與現況 7
2.1.1 香港經濟發展─1978之前 7
2.1.2 香港經濟發展─1978之後:前店後廠模式 8
2.1.3 香港經濟現況 11
2.2 香港與中國大陸間之貿易障礙 17
2.2.1 香港的進口貿易障礙 17
2.2.2 中國大陸的進口貿易障礙 18
2.3 「內地與香港更緊密經貿關係安排」的內容與困難 25
2.3.1 「更緊密經貿關係安排」的內容 25
2.3.2 「更緊密經貿關係安排」的困難 28
第三章 文獻回顧 31
3.1 經濟整合效益與估計 31
3.1.1 經濟整合的效益來源 31
3.1.2 整合效益與影響的量化估計 33
3.2 香港與中國大陸的經濟整合 34
3.2.1 香港與中國大陸經濟整合的非正式性質 34
3.2.2 中國的改革開放與香港特殊地位的變化 36
3.2.3 「前店後廠」模式的停滯 37
3.2.4 「國際化」與「大陸化」爭論 39
3.2.5 香港與珠江三角洲整合的影響估計 41
第四章 研究方法 47
4.1 顯示性比較利益指數 47
4.2 出口相似度指數 49
4.3 其他衡量指標 50
4.4 可計算一般均衡分析 52
4.4.1 全球貿易分析計畫(GTAP)架構 54
4.4.2 需求行為 55
4.4.3 生產行為 57
4.4.4 國際部門 59
4.4.5 價值體系 59
4.4.6 總體封閉法則 61
4.4.7 求解方式 61
4.5 模擬設定 62
4.5.1 區域分組 62
4.5.2 部門分組 63
4.5.3 外生衝擊設定 64
4.5.4 總體封閉法則設定 64
第五章 研究結果分析 66
5.1 要素秉賦結構 66
5.2 顯示性對稱比較利益指數 70
5.3 出口相似度指數 76
5.4 其他指標 78
5.5 可計算一般均衡分析 84
5.5.1 模擬分析程序 84
5.5.2 實質貿易障礙估計 84
5.5.3 模擬進行方式 90
5.5.4 模擬一:自由貿易區、資本存量固定 91
5.5.5 模擬二:自由貿易區、資本報酬率固定 95
5.5.6 模擬三:運輸成本降低、資本報酬率固定 103
5.6 本章小結 106
第六章 結論 110
6.1 研究總結 110
6.2 研究限制 112
參考文獻 114
附錄 120
附錄一 本研究部門分組與GTAP第五版資料庫及ISIC分類對照 120
附錄二 GTAP模型中之會計關係式 124
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