天氣好壞是否會影響財務市場表現呢？過去的研究並沒有得到一致性的結論。本研究以公司進行IPO為事件來分析天氣的狀況(陽光量)與公司IPO折價發行(Underprice)程度的關係。我們利用1980到2003年在美國紐約証券交易所(NYSE)首次公開發行的公司來分析。基於心理學上陽光對於人們的決策判斷會有影響，本研究假設IPOs的投資人在晴天時的過度樂觀與歸因錯誤導致首日報酬率偏高，造成IPOs研究上所謂的折價現象。然而本研究的樣本並不支持陽光與IPOs折價有相關的推論。

　　Whether weather influences the financial market or not is still a puzzle. Although Hirshleifer and Shumway in 2003 show some empirical evidence to support the argument that weather is related to the stock market, other research do not always show the consistency. In the study, we investigate IPO events to test the sunny effect: “do firms go public in sunny days have higher first-day returns than those in cloudy days?” We examine data from New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) between 1980 and 2003 to see how New York City weather is associated with IPOs’ performance in NYSE. Our hypothesis is based on Psychology that human’s judgment is affected by sunshine and tends to be overoptimistic in sunny days which leads to higher IPOs first-day return. However, our samples do not support our hypothesis that IPO’s initial return is related to sunshine.

序論 1
第Ⅰ章：陽光、心情、判斷與行為 4
A. 陽光、行為與心情 4
B. 心情、判斷與行為 5
C. 過度自信與決策判斷 6

第Ⅱ章：IPOs折價發行 7
A. IPOs折價現象與理論 7
B. IPOs折價、資訊、心情與判斷 9

第Ⅲ章：資料介紹 11
A. 首次公開發行資料 11
B. 紐約市天氣資料 13

第Ⅳ章：統計資料分析 14
A. 簡單線性迴歸模型 15
B. 複線性迴歸模型 16
C. 類別型陽光的統計分析 19
D. 虛擬變數型陽光的統計分析 24
E. 發行公司風險分組下，陽光對IPOs的影響 24

第Ⅴ章：結論 28
附錄 30
參考文獻 33

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