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研究生:吳兆傑
研究生(外文):Chao-Chieh Wu
論文名稱:高階主管在產業風潮下的決策行為—以世界電訊產業泡沫化為例
指導教授:林子銘林子銘引用關係
指導教授(外文):Tzu-Ming Lin
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中央大學
系所名稱:管理學院高階主管企管碩士班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2004
畢業學年度:92
語文別:中文
論文頁數:96
中文關鍵詞:高階主管購併群羊行為決策電訊產業泡沫
外文關鍵詞:ExecutivesMergers & AcquisitionHerd BehaviorDecision MakingBubbleTelecommunication Industry
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2000 年全球電訊產業由盛而衰,期間反轉的速度令人驚訝,許多電訊公司在一夕之間進入破產法保護之列,許多執行長及高階主管在此波風潮中黯然失色,輕則聲望受挫,下台負責、重則違法入獄,產業大幅裁員也造成數十萬的電訊從業人員失去工作,還有為數眾多的投資大眾因為電訊產業的崩盤而蒙受巨大的損失,等待解套之殷望,至今仍遙遙無期。這些現象的發生與產業泡沫化的形成、破裂,在人類文明進程中所留下來的產業發展史與經濟史中,皆有許多前例可供殷鑑,然而類似的事情卻一再發生,其中必有留給高階主管回顧及省思之處。

產業高階主管普為社會菁英賢達之人,須能深思熟慮、繼往開來,資方及勞方必定也委以重任,他們也無不全力以赴,以追求公司、個人及社會三贏之局面,但是 2000 年許多跨國電訊公司執行長及高階主管卻鮮少能帶領公司豁免於危機之境,反而加速公司傾頹之勢,考其原因,無非是其決策行為錯誤所致,而背後的因素與高階主管的群羊行為,加上因公司最高職務所伴隨而生的人格特質有莫大的關聯。

高階主管身處知識經濟時代中,資訊雖隨手可得,然而重要的是在建立系統性的概念能力的同時,也需建立抽象性的思維能力,再以「膽」與「識」貫徹心中定見,方能做出卓然出眾的決策,引領公司邁向榮景,古云「胸中自有百萬兵甲」、「決勝於千里之外」,正是如此。

本研究以電訊產業興衰為背景題材,將當時指標性的執行長與產業要角,在當時所採取的決策行為模式加以整理,期能提供企業高階主管決策時之參考。
目錄....................................................................................................................................VI
圖目錄................................................................................................................................VII
表目錄..............................................................................................................................VIII

第1 章 緒論........................................................................................................................1
1.1 研究背景.................................................................................................................. 1
1.2 研究動機...................................................................................................................3
1.3 研究目的...................................................................................................................3
1.4 研究流程...................................................................................................................4

第 2 章 文獻探討.............................................................................................................5
2.1 電訊產業發展背景及過程 ...................................................................................6
2.2 產業生命週期現象探討 ......................................................................................16
2.3 造成電訊產業風潮的因素 ................................................................................. 22
2.4 群羊現象探討..........................................................................................................24
2.5 高階主管決策失敗的原因 ..................................................................................31

第 3 章 研究設計............................................................................................................39
3.1 研究問題定義 ........................................................................................................39
3.2 研究設計及方法......................................................................................................39
3.3 研究架構..................................................................................................................39
3.4 研究限制..................................................................................................................40

第 4 章 電訊產業高階主管思維及決策行為.........................................................41
4.1 歷史上的幾次泡沫經濟 .......................................................................................41
4.2 各種產業風潮之 Boom and Bust 現象 ..............................................................43
4.3 世界主要電訊公司市場表現與泡沫化現象 .....................................................48
4.4 高階主管對產業發展的見解................................................................................55
4.5 權威人士及從眾心理.............................................................................................61
4.6 不理性的購併行為 ...............................................................................................63
4.7 電訊產業大規模裁員............................................................................................68
4.8 幾家電訊公司高階主管的案例...........................................................................69
4.9 高階主管的決策行為............................................................................................77

第 5 章 結論與建議................................................................................................... 85

參考文獻.............................................................................................................................89

圖目錄
圖 1.1 : 近 4 年來 NASDQ 電訊服務及設備產業群組指數(.TES)走勢圖........2
圖 1.2 : 本研究流程 ....................................................................................................... 4
圖 2.1 :本研究文獻探討架構圖 ................................................................................... 5
圖 2.2 :AT&T 在 1985 年以後其長途電訊市場通訊時間佔有率趨勢圖 ...........7
圖 2.3 :新電訊產業結構................................................................................................13
圖 2.4 :電訊產業價值鏈 ..............................................................................................15
圖 2.5 :壟斷與不不均衡現象關係 ............................................................................ 17
圖 2.6 :產業的演進五個階段 .....................................................................................18
圖 2.7 :Moore 的產業生命週期 .................................................................................19
圖 2.8 :Nairn 的 5 階段模型 .....................................................................................20
圖 2.9 :Asch 群體壓力實驗套卡 ................................................................................ 27
圖 3.1 :本研究架構圖 ...................................................................................................40
圖 4.1 :1820 年–1830 年 英國採礦概念股股價指標與相對走勢圖 ................. 44
圖 4.2 :1811 年–1851年 英國運河股價指標相對走勢圖 .....................................45
圖 4.3 :1826 年–1920 年 英國鐵路股價相對走勢圖 ...........................................46
圖 4.4 :1903 年–1927 年 美國汽車公司的倒閉率 ...............................................47
圖 4.5 :1911 年–1925 年 General Motor 股價相對走勢圖 ..................................48
圖 4.6 :2000 年– 2004 年 世界主要電訊服務公司股價走勢圖 .......................50
圖 4.7 :2000 年– 2004 年 世界主要電訊設備公司股價走勢圖 .........................52
圖 4.8 :「牛鞭效應」(Bullwhip Effect)示意圖 .............................................................53
圖 4.9 :AT&T 與 Lucent 股價波動比較圖 ...............................................................54
圖 4.10:Cisco 與 Broadcom 股價波動比較圖 ...........................................................54
圖 4.11:Consensual Vision 認為寬頻價格下跌對市場規模之影響 .........................56
圖 4.12:國際 PSTN 及 VoIP 流量的研究報告 ........................................................59
圖 4.13:美國產業購併風潮與經濟衰退關係 .............................................................64
圖 4.14:美國電訊產業員工雇用數目走勢圖...............................................................69
圖 4.15:電訊產業 CEO 失敗迴旋 ..............................................................................81
網站部分:

http://www.businessweek.com
http://www.wallstreetcity.com
http://www.bankruptcydata.com
http://www.telegeography.com/
http://www.oecd.org
http://quotes.nasdaq.com
http://www.chiefexecutive.net/depts/routetotop2003/186.htm
http://www.bloomberg.com/
http://www.challengergray.com/

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124. Zolnierek, Rangos., “ Industry Analysis Division Common Carrier Bureau ”, Federal Communications Commission, September 1998, pp.3-18 .

中文部分:
1. 王平原 譯(民 85),《10 倍速時代》,大塊文化出版,台北。 譯自:Andrew S. Grove , 1996, “ Only the Paranoid Survive ” ,頁 95-100。
2. 王迅、徐鳴春 譯(民 92),《贏家的邏輯思維》,究竟出版,台北。 譯自:Salvator Cannavo ,1998, “ Think to Win “。
3. 毛治國 著(民 92),《決策》,天下雜誌出版,台北,頁 329。
4. 李田樹、李芳齡 譯(民 89),《啟動革命》,天下遠見出版,台北。 譯自:Gary Hamel , 2000, “ Leading the Revolution ”。
5. 李佩芝、高鴻翔 譯(民 88),《理性賭局》,商周出版,台北。 譯自:H. W. Lewis , 1998, “ Why Flip a Coin:The Art and Science of a Good Decision ”。 頁 210-215,218-223。
6. 林金榜 譯(民 92),《策略巡禮》,商周出版,台北。 譯自:Henry Mintzberg ,1998, “ Strategy Safari “,頁 229。
7. 林麗冠 譯(民 91),《決策制定》,天下出版,台北。譯自:Peter F. Drucker et al.,1965,1966,1989,1998,2001, ” Decision Making ”, Harvard Business Review。
8. 周翠如、齊思賢 譯(民 89),《非理性繁榮》,時報出版,台北。譯自: Robert
J. Shiller, 2000 “ Irrational Exuberance ”。
9. 洪財隆 譯(民 88),《克魯曼驚奇:大師解讀經濟亂象》,先覺出版,台北。譯自:Paul Krugman , 1998, “ The Accidental Theorist : and Other Dispatches from the Dismal Science ” 頁 105-110。
10. 陳光禎,「國際化及自由化的電信產業」,台灣經濟研究月刊 86 年 12 月號,頁 11-12。
11. 殷海光 著(民 68),《思想及方法》,大林出版,台北,頁 77-81。
12. 黃佳瑜 譯(民 92),《企業策略家的遠見:在不確定中尋找精準的 RU 策略理論》,商智文化出版,台北。 譯自:Hugh Courtney , 2001, “ 20/20 Foresight : Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World “。
13. 劉世平 譯(民 91),《北電網路:高科技公司的成功典範》,商周出版,台北。 譯自:Larry MacDonald , 2000, “ Nortel Networks : How Innovation and Vision Created a Network Giant ”,頁 5-14,208-217。
14. 劉世平 譯(民 89),《雄霸天下:思科成功的奧祕》,商周出版,台北。 譯自:Sdavid Bunnell and Adam Brate , 2000, “ Making the Cisco Connection : The Story Behind the Real Internet Superpower “,頁 137-146。
15. 滕淑芬 譯(民 91),《風險世界:掌握變動時代下的新策略》,商周出版,台北。 譯自:Mark Haynes Daniell ,2000, “ World of Risk : Next Generation Strategy for a Volatile Era ”,頁 60-62。
16. 葛立書 譯(民 92),《領導人的逆思考》,臉譜出版,台北。譯自:Steven B. Sample, 2002, ” The Contrarian’s Guide to Leadershi ”,頁 87-93。
17. 賴柏洲、戚瑞國 譯(民 91),《電訊狂潮 : 無限頻寬如何改變世界》,先覺出版,台北。 譯自:George Gilder , 2000, “ Telecosm : How Infinite Bandwidth Will Revolutionize Our World ”,頁 206-226,313-326。
18. 齊思賢 譯(民 89),《知識經濟時代》,時報出版,台北。譯自:Lester C.
Thurow, 1999, “ Building Wealth ”,頁 56-59,85-87,。
19. 齊思賢 譯(民 88),《貪婪時代》,時報出版,台北。譯自:Edward Chancellor
1999, ” Devil Take the Hindmost. ”。
20. 聯合報編譯組 譯(民 87),《全球資本主義危機》,聯經出版,台北。譯自:George Soros,1998, ”The Crisis of Global Capitalism ”,頁 55。
21. 蘇育琪 等譯(民 92),《勇者致富:全球化,在拒絕與接受之間》,天下雜誌出版,台北。 譯自:Lester C. Thurow , 2003, “ Fortune Favors the Bold:What We Must Do to Build a New and Lasting Global Prosperity ”,頁 77-81。
22. 羅耀宗 譯(民 91),《誰說大象不會跳舞》,時報出版,台北。譯自:Louis
V. Gerstner Jr. , 2002, “ Who Says Elephants Can’t Dance ? ”。
23. 顧淑馨 譯(民 83),《全球弔詭:小而強的年代》,天下文化出版,台北。 譯自:John Naisbitt , 1994, “ Global Paradox : The Bigger the World Economy , the More Powerful Its Smallest Players ”,頁 61-116。
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