臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

摘要
本文將討論Tobin, Brunner和Meltzer, Bernanke三者之貨幣傳導機制，其次探討造成各不同學派差異之原因以及此差異對經濟活動之影響。最後由三者之實證方法，以Morrison and Morgan (1999) 之觀點討論理論、模型與經驗事實之關係，並且分析三者實證因果關係之論證。
本文發現在貨幣傳導機制之理論中，Tobin與Bernanke可視為是凱因斯學派之理論，前者繼承傳統凱因斯學派價格僵固性之假說與強調資金成本傳遞管道之主要精神；而後者所提倡之信用學派中信用仲介成本之傳遞管道則可視為凱因斯學派在考慮信用市場後之資金成本傳遞管道。而Brunner和Meltzer主張之相對價格傳遞管道之貨幣學派傳導機制理論，則被認為是凱因斯學派之競爭理論。
此外，在分析理論、模型與經驗事實之關聯中，發現Tobin與Bernanke之實證模型較偏重於檢驗其理論與經驗事實是否一致，但差別在於Tobin之實證模型為Tobin’s q與其解釋變數關係之測量工具；而Bernanke之實證模型則另可作為發現或精鍊理論之工具。相較之下，Meltzer之實證模型較偏向透過陳述與說明的方式來驗證其傳導機制理論，較不關注於利用實證模型檢定理論與經驗事實是否一致。
最後，在因果關係的論證上，Tobin之因果論證是結合經濟計量方法與經濟理論以進行因果推論，時間轉折點之研究方式則非其評斷因果關係之證據；而Meltzer與Bernanke則倚賴循環轉折點之時間領先指標作為其因果關係論證之依據，兩者之差異在於Bernanke是利用Granger Causality作為整個因果關係解釋的主要依據，透過衝擊反應函數來達到時間點轉折之研究，而Meltzer僅是由經驗事實中顯示經濟變數時間點轉折之先後順序。

Abstract
This thesis investigates the history of the development of the monetary transmission mechanism. The theories of Tobin, Brunner and Meltzer, and Benanke are taken as case studies. The differences between these channels of monetary transmission mechanism are discussed historically and methodology. Historically, Tobin’s capital-cost channel and Benanke’s credit channel are regarded as Keynesian, while Brunner and Meltzer’s relative-price channel is more close to monetarist tradition. Methodologically, as long as the relationships between theory, model and data are concerned, Tobin’s, Brunner and Meltzer’s, and Bernanke’s empirical models perform various functions. The issues of testing and causality are studied.

目錄
表次 ..………………………………………………………………VIII
圖次…………………………………………………………………VIII
第一章 序論……………………………………………………………..1
1.1 貨幣傳導機制之簡介……………………………………………….1
1.2 文獻回顧…………………………………………………………….5
1.3 研究目的與方法…………………………………………………….8
第二章 Tobin之資金成本傳遞管道…………………………………...9
2.1傳統凱因斯學派之貨幣傳導機制…………………………………..9
2.1.1傳統凱因斯學派之貨幣傳導機制……………………………..9
2.1.2傳統凱因斯學派傳導機制之主要精神……………………….10
2.2 Tobin與傳統凱因斯學派………………………………………..11
2.2.1 Tobin對傳統凱因斯學派傳導機制之批評……………… ..11
2.2.2 Tobin’ s q………………………………………………….12
2.3 Tobin之貨幣理論模型…………………………………………..13
2.4 Tobin對其貨幣傳導機制之詮釋………………………………..17
2.4.1 Tobin之貨幣傳導機制…………………………………… ..17
2.4.2 Tobin傳導機制之主要精神 ……………………………….18
2.5 小結……………………………………………………………...20
第三章 Brunner與Meltzer之相對價格傳遞管道…………………….21
3.1 Friedman, Brunner與Meltzer……………………………………21
3.1.1 Friedman對傳統凱因斯學派傳導機制之批判…………….21
3.1.2 Meltzer對Friedman之批評..……………………………….23
3.2 Brunner與Meltzer之貨幣理論模型……………………………..24
3.3 Brunner與Meltzer對其貨幣傳導機制之詮釋…………………..28
3.3.1 Brunner與Meltzer之貨幣傳導機制 .………………………28
3.3.2 Brunner與Meltzer傳導機制之主要精神………………… ..30
3.4 小結…………………………………………………………….31
第四章 Bernanke之信用傳遞管道……………………………… .. 33
4.1 經濟大蕭條之信用傳遞管道解釋……………………………….33
4.2 Bernanke之貨幣理論模型 ..…………………………………..35
4.3 Bernanke對其貨幣傳導機制之詮釋……………………………..41
4.3.1 Bernanke之貨幣傳導機制……………………………… . 41
4.3.2 Bernanke傳導機制之主要精神………………………… ..42
4.4 小結……………………………………………………………….44
第五章 不同貨幣傳導機制之比較…………………………………..45
5.1 Tobin與傳統凱因斯學派之比較…………………………………45
5.2 Tobin, Brunner與Meltzer傳導機制之比較…………...…...47
5.2.1 Tobin, Brunner與Meltzer傳導機制之比較…………47
5.2.2 Tobin’s q與相對價格之討論 …………………. .50
5.2.3 Tobin, Brunner與Meltzer傳導機制差異之探討 ….52
5.2.4不同傳導機制之經濟影響分析…………………… ..53
5.3 Tobin, Brunner與Meltzer, Bernanke傳導機制之比較….54
5.3.1 Tobin, Brunner與Meltzer, Bernanke傳導機制差異之探討 61
5.3.2 不同傳導機制之經濟影響分析………………………… .62
5.4 小結……………………………………………………………… 64

第六章 不同貨幣傳導機制之實證研究比較……………………… .66
6.1 前言………………………………………………………….66
6.2 Tobin, Meltzer, Bernanke貨幣傳導機制之實證研究……….70
6.3貨幣傳導機制中之因果關聯分析……………………………… .76
6.3.1 Tobin實證研究之因果推論…………………………… 76
6.3.2 Meltzer實證研究之因果推論……………………… .77
6.3.3 Bernanke實證研究之因果推論…………………… ..78
6.4 理論、模型與經驗事實之關係………………………………….79
6.4.1模型為建立與發現理論之工具…………………………… ..79
6.4.2模型為測量之工具………………………………………….. 80
6.4.3模型為實驗設計與政策干預之工具……………………… ..81
6.4.4模型為陳述理論與經驗事實之功能……………………… ..82
6.5 小結………………………………………………………………82
第七章 結論與建議 ……………………………………………… .84
7.1結論 …………………………………………………………… .84
7.2 未來研究展望 ………………………………………………… 87
參考文獻………………………………………………………………88

參考文獻
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