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研究生:余芝穎
研究生(外文):Chin-Ying Yu
論文名稱:美國貨幣政策跨國傳遞--台灣的實證研究
論文名稱(外文):International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: The case of Taiwan
指導教授:黃朝熙黃朝熙引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chao-Hsi Huang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立清華大學
系所名稱:經濟學系
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2004
畢業學年度:92
語文別:英文
論文頁數:51
中文關鍵詞:貨幣政策衝擊Mundell-Flemming-Dornbusch模型跨期經常帳模型向量自我廻歸分析半結構性向量自我迴歸模型衝擊反應函數變異數分解跨國傳遞
外文關鍵詞:Monetary polich shocksMundell-Flemming-Dornbusch modelIntertemporal current account modelVARSemi-structural VARImpulse response functionVariance decompositionInternational transmission
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:7
  • 點閱點閱:366
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:136
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
有鑑於世界各國近年來彼此之間的貿易增加,國與國之間的關係日益密切,對現今的經濟學家和政策決策者而言,了解他國的貨幣政策是否對本國的實質經濟有所影響、或所此影響經由的跨國傳遞管道為何益顯得重要。故本文欲探討台灣和其主要貿易國--美國之間的貨幣政策跨國傳遞管道,本文同時採用向量自我迴歸模型和半結構性向量自我迴歸模型估計,並利用衝擊反應函數及變異數分解等分析,觀察美國的貨幣政策擴張對其自身的貿易收支和台灣總體經濟的實質效果。

本文實證結果顯示,美國貨幣擴張短期會造成美國本身的貿易收支赤字,在長期貿易收支則呈現盈餘的情形,而貿易收支長期的改善主要是來自美國進口的長期增加。在跨國傳導機制方面,美國的貨幣擴張,會藉由貿易收支管道或是實質利率管道,造成台灣的產出增加。
此外,不論從向量自我迴歸模型或從半結構性向量自我迴歸模型,所得出來的實證結果均一致;本文的實證結果亦與Mundell-Flemming-Dornbusch模型和跨期經常帳模型的預測相符。
This study examines the international transmission of the U.S. monetary shocks on the real economy of Taiwan for the flexible exchange rate period. One novel feature of our study is that we not only use the traditional vector autoregression model (VAR) but also the semi-structural VAR model. First, U.S. expansionary monetary policy shocks will worsen U.S. trade balance in the short run while the long run improvement of U.S. trade balance is caused by the lasting improvement in U.S. export. Second, as to the international transmission of U.S. monetary shocks, the U.S. monetary expansion shocks lead to booms in Taiwan. Both trade balance channel and real interest rate channel play important roles in the transmission. Overall, the results from VAR model are similar to that from the semi-structural model. The evidence about the international transmission mechanism appears to be consistent with the
prediction of both Mundell-Flemming-Dornbusch (MFD) model and the intertemporal current account model.
1 Introduction 1
2 Literature review 4
2.1 Theoretical framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.2 Empirical studies of international transmission of monetary shocks . . 8
3 Methodology 11
3.1 VAR modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
3.2 Identication scheme and extended system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
4 Empirical results 19
4.1 Impulse responses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
4.1.1 The trade balance channel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
4.1.2 The real interest rate channel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
4.2 Forecast error variance decompositions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
5 Extended experiments 32
5.1 International policy coordination and policy endogeneity . . . . . . . 32
5.2 Semi-structural identication scheme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
6 Conclusion 39
A JI model 45
B Data 48
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