面對愈來愈激烈的競爭環境，企業面臨在自有資源有限的情況下，在需求變動的環境中如何運用最少的生產成本，採行適當的產能設定決策以因應需求的變化，將是企業所追尋的方向。
鑑於過去管理人員在面對不確定性的問題時，通常利用機率分析來協助其制定決策，以變數的期望值作為決策依據，從而降低不確定性所可能產生的風險，然而卻忽略在相同變異的期望值下，風險對決策所產生的影響。因此，本研究主要目的是考慮風險因素，以需求變異大小來衡量風險程度，運用模式分析的方法，探討生產決策者面臨需求變異不確定的情況下，需求變異對產能設定決策之影響，以及如何決定其最適產能，最後更進一步探討需求變異與最適產能變動的關係。
研究結果顯示，在需求確定情況下，該最適產能為對應確定需求水準之產能；在需求變異不確定情況下，藉由預測的可能需求範圍來探討需求變異對產能設定決策之影響，並經由模式分析，求得最適產能成本調整係數，即可獲致最適產能。此外，本研究亦進一步探討需求變異擴大時，對最適產能設定決策之影響。

Facing the increasingly keen competition environment, does the enterprise faced with in innate resources limited situation, how utilize the least production cost in the de-mand change environment, suitably make the capacity decision by in accordance to the demand change, will be the direction which the enterprise tracks down.
The past administrative personnel, usually used the probability analysis for its deci-sion-making, took the decision-making basis by the variable expected value, to reduce the risk of uncertainty when faced the uncertainty question. However they ignore the in-fluence of risk to the decision-making under the same variance expected value. Therefore, this research main goal is considering the risk factor to weigh the risk degree by the de-mand variance size, using the model analysis method to discuss production policy-maker, influence when facing the demand variance uncertainty situation. Meanwhile, we talk about how to decide the optimal capacity. Further more, we discuss the relationship be-tween demand variance and optimal capacity.
The results indicate that, the optimal capacity is made by the capacity of certainty situation in the demand certainty situation; In the demand variance uncertainty situation, we can use the expectation of possible demand scope to discuss the demand variance to influence of the capacity decision. By way of the model analysis, we also obtain optimal capacity cost adjust factor and then get optimal capacity. In addition, this research also further discusses demand variance expansion to influence of the optimal capacity deci-sion.

內容目錄
中文摘要　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． iii
英文摘要　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． iv
誌謝辭　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． v
內容目錄　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． vi
圖目錄　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． vii
第一章　　緒論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 1
　　第一節　　研究動機與背景．．．．．．．．．．．． 1
　　第二節　　研究目的．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 3
　　第三節　　研究架構．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 4
第二章　　文獻探討．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 6
　　第一節　　需求不確定之相關文獻．．．．．．．．． 6
　　第二節　　產能成本之相關文獻．．．．．．．．．． 9
　　第三節　　需求不確定之產能規劃相關文獻．．．．． 11
第三章　　模式建立與分析．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 13
　　第一節　　基本假設與設定．．．．．．．．．．．．． 13
　　第二節　　模式分析與結果．．．．．．．．．．．．． 15
第四章　　結論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 29
　　第一節　　研究結論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 29
　　第二節　　研究限制與建議．．．．．．．．．．．． 31
參考文獻　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 32

一、中文部分
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徐忠榮(2001)，整合產能擴充與平行機器置換問題之研究，國立成功大學工業工程研究所未出版之碩士論文。
劉勇豪(1999)，產能成本及產能管理之探討－以某通信電纜纜公司為個案，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版之碩士論文。
謝瑞海(2003)，晶圓代工廠產能投資決策與需求管理模式之研究，國立台灣大學商學研究所未出版之碩士論文。
二、英文部分
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