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研究生:吳月賢
論文名稱:武力威脅與人口成長
指導教授:謝智源謝智源引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:中國文化大學
系所名稱:經濟學研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2004
畢業學年度:92
語文別:中文
論文頁數:81
中文關鍵詞:軍事支出武力威脅人口成長最適控制理論戰後嬰兒潮
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本文將武力威脅與國防支出的的特質納入Becker and Barro (1988)模型中,並利用此一總體均衡模型來探討國內軍事支出與國外武力威脅對總體經濟體系相關變數的影響。根據本文的分析,我們發現:
1. 若國內軍事支出增加對於「小孩所帶來的邊際效用的影響」小於國內軍事支出增加對於「消費的邊際效用的影響」時,國內軍事支出增加會造成均衡的人口數及均衡的消費下降。相反地,若國內軍事支出增加對於「小孩所帶來的邊際效用的影響」大於國內軍事支出增加對於「消費的邊際效用的影響」時,國內軍事支出增加會對於均衡人口數及均衡消費數量的影響並不確定。值得一提的是,若國內軍事支出增加使得長期的人口數下降時,長期的消費水準必定會呈現下降的現象。
2. 若民眾未預料政府短暫性地增加軍事支出時,在政策實施的期間內,人口數呈現下降的現象,待政府回復原先的軍事支出水準後,人口逐漸上升。這或許可以解釋戰爭的期間內,國內的軍事支出增加,促使人口呈現減少,但戰爭結束後,人口數轉而呈現上升,也就是所謂的「戰後嬰兒潮」現象。
3. 當國外武力威脅恆久性地提高時,對於長期均衡人口數的影響是不確定的。其關鍵在於武力威脅增加對於「消費的邊際效用的影響」與對於「小孩所帶來的邊際效用的影響」二者間的相對大小。更明確地說,若國外武力威脅增加對於「小孩所帶來的邊際效用的影響」小於(大於)對於「消費的邊際效用的影響」,國外武力威脅提高會造成長期人口數及長期消費水準均呈現增加(減少)的現象。
4. 若武力威脅為短暫性提高時,不管武力威脅增加對於「消費的邊際效用的影響」與對於「小孩所帶來的邊際效用的影響」二者之相對大小,在政策執行的期間內,人口數與消費先會呈現同向變動再反向變動的現象。
目 錄
第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………1
第一節 研究動機與目的……………………………………………………1
第二節 論文架構……………………………………………………………5
附圖表…………………………………………………………………………6
第二章 理論模型……………………………………………………………7
第一節 模型設定……………………………………………………………7
第二節 動態特性分析………………………………………………………11
第三節 國內軍事支出的影響………………………………………………15
第四節 國外武力威脅對體系的影響………………………………………16
附圖……………………………………………………………………………17
第三章 國內軍事支出增加的經濟效果……………………………………18
第一節 未預料到恆常性的國內軍事支出增加……………………………18
第二節 未預料到短暫性的國內軍事支出增加……………………………24
第三節 預料到恆常性的國內軍事支出增加………………………………30
附圖……………………………………………………………………………34
第四章 國外武力威脅增加的經濟效果……………………………………47
第一節 未預料到恆常性的國外武力威脅增加……………………………47
第二節 未預料到短暫性的國外武力威脅增加……………………………53
第三節 預料到恆常性的國外武力威脅增加………………………………58
第四節 預料到短暫性的國外武力威脅增加………………………………64
附圖……………………………………………………………………………67
第五章 結論與展望…………………………………………………………75
參考文獻………………………………………………………………………78
一、中文部份:
陳妍霏(2003),「國防支出與內生成長」,天主教輔仁大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。
黄國書(1996),「武力威脅與體制變革」,國立中正大學國際經濟所碩士論文。
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