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研究生:丁偉民
研究生(外文):Wei-min Ting
論文名稱:不確定性之下,ERP的投資評估:使用權重模糊實質選擇則權
論文名稱(外文):ERP Investment under Uncertainty: A Weighted Fuzzy Real Option Approach
指導教授:陳昭宏陳昭宏引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立雲林科技大學
系所名稱:資訊管理系碩士班
學門:電算機學門
學類:電算機一般學類
論文種類:學術論文
畢業學年度:92
語文別:英文
論文頁數:46
中文關鍵詞:實質選擇權模糊實質選擇權權重模糊選擇權企業資源規劃
外文關鍵詞:Real optionFuzzy real optionWeighted fuzzy real optionERP
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ERP investment is an important issue in information technology investment. It will cause heavy damage if without good decision. Traditional approaches are very difficult to make decision better when an investment project is under uncertainty. However, there is a new approach which calls fuzzy real option. In this study, we are not just evaluating by fuzzy real option. Furthermore, we modify the model which inspires us from Robert and Peter (2003). The new model named “weighted fuzzy real option”.

In this study, we show weighted fuzzy real option is more powerful than fuzzy real option. Thus, we consider managers can deal with the uncertainty and accommodate more risk factors by weighted fuzzy real option.
ERP investment is an important issue in information technology investment. It will cause heavy damage if without good decision. Traditional approaches are very difficult to make decision better when an investment project is under uncertainty. However, there is a new approach which calls fuzzy real option. In this study, we are not just evaluating by fuzzy real option. Furthermore, we modify the model which inspires us from Robert and Peter (2003). The new model named “weighted fuzzy real option”.

In this study, we show weighted fuzzy real option is more powerful than fuzzy real option. Thus, we consider managers can deal with the uncertainty and accommodate more risk factors by weighted fuzzy real option.
Table of Contents
Abstract………………………………………………………………………………...i
Acknowledgements…………………………………………………………………....ii
1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………….1
2. Literature Review………………………………………………………………3
2.1 The Uncertainty of ERP Investment……………………………………….3
2.2 Tradition Methodology of Capital Budgeting Decision Making…………..7
2.2.1 Net Present Value (NPV)…………………………………………...7
2.2.2 Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)……………………………………...9
2.2.3 Decision Tree Analysis (DTA)…………………………………….10
2.2.4 Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)……………………………...11
2.3 Real Options Presentation………………………………………………...12
2.3.1 The Concept of Real Options……………………………………...12
2.3.2 The Formulation of Real Option…………………………………..13
2.3.3 Recently Researches and Critical Issues…………………………..14
2.4 Fuzzy Real Options……………………………………………………….17
2.4.1 The Simple Concept of Fuzzy Numbers…………………………..17
2.4.2 The Fuzzy Real Option Approach…………………………………17
2.5 Summary………………………………………………………………….20
3. The Structure of Research Model....…………………………………………..21
3.1 The modification of Fuzzy real option………………..…………………..21
3.1.1 An example of express f-weighted possibilistic mean value….…...23
3.1.2 Weighted possibilistic mean and variance…………………………24
3.2 Weighted Fuzzy Real Option Model…………...…………………………26
3.3 Research Process………………………………………………………….27
4. Empirical study……………………………………………………………….29
4.1 Information about ERP investment……………………………………….29
4.2 Identify related parameters………………………………………………..31
4.3 Results…...………………………………………………………………..34
4.4 Conclusion………………………………………………………………..40
5. Implication……………………………………………………………………42
References……………………………………………………………………………44


List of Tables
Table 1:Summary of the risk factors in IT investment………………………………4
Table 2:Summary of the risk factors in IT investment………………………………5
Table 3:Summary of the risk factors in ERP project………………………………...6
Table 4:Finance Option V.S Real Option……………………………………………13
Table 5:Summary of the reviewed studies………………………………………….15
Table 6:The critical issues about real options………………………………………16
Table 7:The comparison between real option and fuzzy real option approach……..20
Table 8:The information of implement ERP………………………………………..29
Table 9:The information of implement ERP in Swedish……………………….……29
Table 10:The benefit (tangibles only) after implement ERP……….……………….31
Table 11:The benefit (tangibles & intangibles) after implement ERP...…………….31
Table 12:U.S. Treasury…………………………………….……….…………….....32
Table 13:The value of fuzzy real option in 10 years……………………………….37
Table 14:The value of weighted fuzzy real option in 10 years…………………….38
Table 15:The value of fuzzy real option in 5 years………………………………….39
Table 16:The value of weighted fuzzy real option in 5 years……………………….39

List of Figures
Figure 1:The different between NPV and Real option………………………………8
Figure 2:The probability distribution of project payoffs when real options are involved…………………………………………………………………………..9
Figure 3:The Concept of Call Options………………………………………….......12
Figure 4:The trapezoidal fuzzy numbers……………………………………………18
Figure 5:The possibility distribution of Fuzzy real option values…….…………….35
Figure 6:The possibility distribution of Weighted Fuzzy real option values……….36
Figure 7:How would you rate the ERP project? Source: Technology Issues for Financial Executives………………………………………………………...….42
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