臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

The models of life cycle cost are closely related to weapon system acquisition and sustainment. The traditional life cycle cost is overly calculated by analogy to the other type system developed before, the model is normally coarse and do not reflect the dynamic nature of model factors. Under the current guidance of pursuing the appropriate performance of weapon system, it does not provide precise performance measure of cost effect evaluation. As the high cost nature of future weapon system, the U.S. military and the MND of R.O.C are both assuming the concept of “Performance Based Logistic (PBL)” as the logistic strategy for future weapon system life cycle management. The major viewpoint is “ready and sustainment”, which in turn change the concept of “Just in case” to “An index to evaluate the readiness of combat and mission capability.” The idea is actually originated from the concept of system efficiency, which is heavily relied on the correlation analysis of cost, efficiency and to achieve the best system performance at affordable cost. However, the key is the ability to evaluate system reliably.

In this research, we have proposed an innovated life cycle cost model, which is based on the idea of performance based logistic. The major viewpoints of model are to correlate the relation among system reliability, maintainability, availability and cost. The cost effect of availability and system life cost is also studied under limited resources conditions. The model is practically built by using system dynamic theory to simulate the correlated dynamic characters of cost, system performance and time. The model is centered from reliability to build the dynamic model operation availability and maintenance cost. The model had been verified by the coast guard fleet logistic data and demonstrated satisfied result. Through the adjustments of model factors, we can analyze their impacts on cost and system readiness, and provide the references of the result for policy decision. Finally, we have studied the optimization of model factors to achieve the best logistic performance under a set objection function and limited resources.

誌謝 v
摘要 vi
ABSTRACT vii
表目錄 xiii
圖目錄 xiv
1. 緒論 1
1.1 前言 1
1.2 研究背景 1
1.2.1 美軍後勤新思維 1
1.2.2 系統效能分析 5
1.2.3 壽期成本分析 6
1.2.4 相關文獻探討 6
1.3 研究動機及目的 9
1.4研究架構 9
2. 理論概述 11
2.1 系統效能分析理論及方法 11
2.1.1 系統效能分析 11
2.1.2 系統分析的特點及內容 12
2.1.3 系統效能的分析程序及方法 14
2.1.4 系統效能最佳化 14
2.1.5 系統效能影響因素分析 15
2.2 壽命週期成本 16
2.2.1 壽期成本架構 16
2.2.2 壽期成本分析流程及方法 19
2.2.3 傳統壽期成本估算缺點 24
2.2.4 壽期成本與系統效能影響因素關聯性 24
2.3 系統效費分析 27
2.3.1 系統效費比較法 29
2.3.2 傳統分析方法缺點 30
2.3.3 以可靠度為中心的系統效費分析 30
2.4 小結 32
3. 研究方法 33
3.1 系統效能影響因子 33
3.1.1 可靠度相關理論 33
3.1.2 維護度相關理論 38
3.1.3 可用度 46
3.2系統動態學理論 49
3.2.1 系統因果回饋結構 50
3.2.2 裝備結構的動態特性 52
3.2.3 系統動態學建模概述 53
3.3 小結 54
4. 全壽期成本動態模式建構 55
4.1 系統模式說明 55
4.2 全壽期成本結構 56
4.2.1 裝備獲得成本 56
4.2.2 操作及維持成本 57
4.2.3 系統汰除成本 60
4.3裝備停機修理成本 61
4.3.1 動態效能模型 63
4.3.1.1 可靠度模型 63
4.3.1.2 維護度模型 64
4.3.1.3 操作可用度（Ao）模型 65
4.3.2 維修勞動力模型 66
4.3.2.1 人力申補子模型 68
4.3.2.2 訓練子模型 69
4.3.2.3 離退子模型 70
4.3.3 裝備停機修理成本模型 71
4.4 全壽期成本動態模型 72
4.5 小結 73
5. 實例驗證及分析 74
5.1 實例驗證 74
5.2 模型參數分析 79
5.3 維修策略分析 84
5.3.1 預防性維修與矯正性維修對系統可靠度之影響 84
5.3.2 維修效能對操作可用度之影響 87
5.3.3 參數最佳化分析 89
5.4 小結 90
6. 結論與未來研究方向 92
6.1 結論 92
6.2 未來研究方向 93
參考文獻 95
附錄 100
自傳 103

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