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研究生:沈育霖
研究生(外文):Shen Yu
論文名稱:在不確定需求下供應鏈決策模式之研發
論文名稱(外文):The Development of Decisive Models for Three-echelon Supply Chain under Demand Uncertainty
指導教授:陳明德陳明德引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中正大學
系所名稱:企業管理所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2005
畢業學年度:93
語文別:英文
論文頁數:50
中文關鍵詞:供應鏈管理風險共擔數學規劃不確定需求
外文關鍵詞:supply chain managementrisk poolingmathematical programminguncertainty demand
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現今,面臨競爭激烈的全球化企業,使得供應鏈管理在決策上扮演重要的角色。這樣的驅動力下,縮短了產品生命週期、交付前置時間以及降低邊際利潤。很多企業面臨著不可預測的未來之不確定需求。

本文的研究針對在不確定需求下之三階供應鏈的風險共擔策略下影響。我們發展出一個數學規劃的模型,使整個供應鏈的總成本達到最小。模型考慮的成本有採購成本、生產成本、運輸成本、存貨成本及處罰成本。

經過測試的分析後,我們發現一有趣的現象,當需求滿足率提高,而結果使總成本下降的ㄧ個情況。雖然這樣的結果不是一定能適用在不同的成本結構上,但是在每一期不同產品的生產水準下,適當的控制將可以使成本降低。運用風險共擔的策略,由於總需求可以較精確的估計,生產規劃的執行將更有效率。因此,存貨與處罰成本將可大幅降低。模擬的結果證明風險共擔的策略的確降低了整個供應鏈的總成本。
Nowadays, supply chain management is playing an important role on decision-making for the global enterprises facing severe competition. The driving forces are the shorter product life cycle, delivery lead time, and the decreasing marginal profits. Most of the companies have been facing the unpredictable future with uncertain demand.

This study attempts to investigate the impact of the risk-pooling strategy on the performance of a three-echelon supply chain under uncertainty. The mathematical programming models are developed to minimize the total costs of the entire supply chain. The costs considered include the purchasing, production, transportation, inventory, and penalty costs.

An interesting observation from the tested example is that the higher demand fulfillment rate is, the lower total costs turn out. Although the result does not always hold for different cost structure, the appropriate control of the production levels for different products in each period sheds light on reducing the total costs. By risk-pooling strategy, production planning can be done more effectively since the total demands can be more accurately estimated. Hence, inventory and penalty costs are dramatically reduced. The simulated results from this study show that the risk-pooling strategy indeed significantly trims the total supply chain costs.
ABSTRACT 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
LIST OF FIGURE 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
LIST OF TABLE 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
Chapter 1 Introduction 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
1.1 Background and Motivation 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
1.2 Problem Description 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
1.3 Objectives 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
1.4 Organization 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
Chapter 2 Literature Review 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
2.1 Supply chain management 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
2.2 Taxonomies of supply chain modeling 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
2.3 Supply chain design 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
2.4 Key component of supply chain modeling 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
2.4.1 Constraints 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
2.4.2 decision variables 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
Chapter 3 Model Formulation 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
3.1 Notations for parameters and decision variables 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
3.2 Model for specific demand 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
3.2.1 The objective function 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
3.2.2 The constraints 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
3.3 Model for uncertain demand 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
3.3.1 The objective function 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
3.3.2 The constraints 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
Chapter 4 Numerical Analysis 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
4.1 Problem description 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
4.2 Specific demand 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
4.3 Uncertain demand 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
4.4 Comparison 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
4.4.1 Compare models for specific demand and for uncertain demand 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
4.4.2 Compare model for uncertain demand with different customer service levels 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Recommendations 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
5.1 Conclusions 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
5.2 Recommendations for future research 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
References 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
Appendices 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
Appendix A 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
Appendix B 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
Appendix C 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
Appendix D 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
Appendix E 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
Appendix F 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。
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