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研究生:李俐嫺
研究生(外文):Li-Hsien Lee
論文名稱:法人持股比例與分析師對上市公司盈餘預測之探討
指導教授:何加政何加政引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中正大學
系所名稱:財務金融所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2005
畢業學年度:93
語文別:中文
論文頁數:54
中文關鍵詞:法人持股比例分析師預測預測頻率預測品質
外文關鍵詞:Institutional investoranalyst forecast
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:7
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  • 下載下載:159
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:4
台灣股市的投資者多以散戶為主,然而散戶的資訊不足,所能依據的買賣指標大約可分為二種,其一是機構投資人的交易動向,其二是分析師的分析報告及買賣推薦。本文以三大法人持股比例的變化,來觀察機構投資人的交易行為,並選定分析師預測頻率與預測品質兩大主題,分別探討與三大法人持股比例之間的關係。
本文的目的,在於探討三大法人持股比例與分析師預測頻率之間是否存在正向關係,以及三大法人持股比例與分析師預測品質之間是否存在正向關係等二部分。藉由計算每家上市公司之分析師預測次數和預測誤差,再分別與每家上市公司之法人平均持股比例做迴歸分析。
實證結果發現,自營商部分普遍呈現不顯著的結果,而外資與投信大部分呈現顯著,其中預測頻率的部分呈現顯著為正的結果,符合本文預期,亦即法人持股比例較高的公司,其分析師預測頻率的確是較多;而預測品質的部分呈現顯著為負的結果,與本文預期相反,亦即法人持股比例較高的公司,其分析師預測盈餘的品質並不會較佳,反而會較差。
目錄
第壹章 緒論 ………………………………………… 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 ……………………… 1
第二節 研究目的 ……………………………… 4
第三節 研究架構 ……………………………… 5
第貳章 文獻探討 …………………………………… 6
第一節 投資類別簡介 ………………………… 6
第二節 相關文獻 ……………………………… 10
第參章 研究設計 …………………………………… 16
第一節 研究範圍 ……………………………… 16
第二節 資料來源 ……………………………… 16
第三節 研究方法 ……………………………… 17
第肆章 實證結果 …………………………………… 24
第一節 資料描述 ……………………………… 24
第二節 實證結果分析 ………………………… 25
第伍章 結論與建議 ………………………………… 29
第一節 研究結論 ……………………………… 29
第二節 研究建議 ……………………………… 30
參考文獻 ……………………………………………… 31
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黃慶輝(2002),「台灣股市三大法人交易資訊公佈之研究」,未出版碩士論文,國立中正大學財務金融研究所。
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