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研究生:莊寶玉
研究生(外文):Pao-Yu Chuang
論文名稱:空氣品質資料分析-以中部空品區臭氧為例
論文名稱(外文):Ambient O3 Concentration
指導教授:楊錫賢楊錫賢引用關係
指導教授(外文):Hsi-Hsien Yang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:朝陽科技大學
系所名稱:環境工程與管理系碩士班
學門:工程學門
學類:環境工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2005
畢業學年度:93
語文別:中文
論文頁數:67
中文關鍵詞:Kruskal-Wallis 分析空氣品質標準信賴區間Monte-Carlo 分析
外文關鍵詞:air quality standardMonte-Carlo analysisKruskal-Wallis analysisConfident Interval
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  • 被引用被引用:15
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  • 下載下載:97
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影響空氣品質的環境因子甚多,而造成空氣品質不良的因素亦甚為複雜,本文針對1998 至2002 年的中部空氣品質監測站的O3 監測數據進行研究,計算每年每日最大小時值,估計每年第八高(MAX8),建立極值統計模式,以Monte-Carlo 模擬O3 濃度及其信賴區間。進一步探討O3 濃度與時間、週末日、溫度及降雨的間的關係。研究結果顯示,使用線性及二次項迴歸模擬各年度的MAX8 值,二次項迴歸法具有較良好的模擬結果。但無論是線性或二項次的模擬方法,估計MAX8 值的信賴區間結果均顯示中部空品區1998 至2002 年五年間,各空品測站的MAX8 值在統計上沒有顯著的差異。Kruskal-Wallis 相關性檢定分析顯示降雨、溫度及季節別與最大臭氧濃度發生有關,而星期假日則沒有明顯的相關性。建議後續研究針對Monte-Carlo 模擬的樣本大小、取樣方法及假設常態分布的模擬是否合理,該進一步予以釐清。
In Taiwan, the ambient air quality standard of ozone is 0.12 ppm; this value is not to be exceeded by the observed hourly ozone concentration to protect human health. For each day, the maximum hourly ozone concentration is to be
identified. For an entire year, the 8th largest value of the 365 daily hourly maxima is used to test the compliance of the standard. To account for the uncertainty in measurement, the regulation stipulates the three-year moving average of the 8th largest value is the figure for use in comparison with the standard. This research collated the observed ambient hourly ozone data from 1998 - 2002 at 8 continuous monitoring stations maintained by the Government. The 8th highest concentration (MAX8) was calculated for each site by year. For the estimate of confidence interval for MAX8, this research applied a linear regression of the ozone concentrations on their ranks, and a quadratic logistic regression of odd ratios on ozone concentration. To estimate the confidence interval by using the quadratic equation for inverse prediction, the latter method was carried out in conjunction with Monte-Carlo simulation. By taking into
account the uncertainty expressed by the confidence interval, MAX8 does not exhibit differences statistically for all stations in the period. Ozone concentration observed is a result of many influential factors. This research applied Kruskal-Wallis test to examine the relation between the ozone concentration and some environmental factors. The variation of ozone concentration with precipitation, temperature, and season is confirmed by the test, but the differences in concentration between weekday and weekend are indiscernible statistically.
摘要.....................................................II
Abstract................................................III
致謝.....................................................IV
總目錄....................................................V
表目錄..................................................VII
圖目錄....................................................X
第一章 緒論...............................................1
1.1 研究緣起..............................................1
1.2 研究目的..............................................2
1-3 研究架構及流程........................................2
第二章 文獻回顧...........................................4
2.1 空氣品質標準..........................................4
2.2 臭氧問題探討..........................................7
2.2.1 臭氧生成反應........................................7
2.2.2 臭氧污染現況........................................9
2.2.3 臭氧與氣象條件.....................................11
2.2.4 臭氧污染及對環境影響...............................11
2.3 極值統計與蒙地卡羅模擬分析應用.......................13
第三章 研究方法..........................................16
3.1 資料彙整及篩選.......................................16
3.2 年第八高值及信賴區間估計.............................16
3.2.1 線性迴歸法...................................... ..16
3.2.2 Monte-Carlo估計信賴區間............................18
3.3 相關性檢定...........................................19
第四章 結果討論...................................... ..21
4.1 空氣品質概況.........................................21
4.2 空氣品質第八高位統計分析.............................23
4.2.1 敘述統計...........................................23
4.2.2 年第八高位發生時間點分析...........................25
4.3 年第八高位估計及信賴間...............................42
4.4 降雨差異性檢定.......................................48
4.5 星期假日差異性檢定...................................52
4.6 溫度影響差異檢定.....................................56
4.7 季節影響差異檢定.....................................60
第五章 結論與建議........................................65
參考文獻.................................................66
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