臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

　　科技的快速發展帶來了許多便利，而企業也藉著科技，進行增加生產力以及改善品質等計畫來提升企業的競爭力，使企業增加在市場中的競爭優勢。並且當經濟規模飽和而使生產力達到瓶頸時，管理者便要考慮到市場需求、公司利潤以及成本等各項因素，以進行技術採用的方案。因此，產生了技術採用上的決策問題，而本研究目的在探討技術採用的最適宜時刻，並將技術採用之決策問題模式化，進而降低在技術的選擇中存在之不確定性與風險，且利用貝氏決策分析方法，將決策者的主觀經驗和客觀的市場資訊加入決策模式，進行事前分析與事後分析的討論，協助管理者進行技術採行時間點最適決策的選擇，另外，研究中亦以統一企業的實例數據，及部分的假設數據，進行技術採行決策模式的應用分析，制定出統一公司的技術採用最佳時點之策略，而達到使統一公司之期望利潤最大的最終目的。

摘要........................................Ⅰ
目錄........................................Ⅱ
圖目錄......................................Ⅳ
表目錄......................................Ⅴ

第一章、緒論................................1
第一節、研究背景........................1
第二節、研究動機........................2
第三節、研究目的........................3
第二章、文獻探討............................4
第一節、科技管理............................4
一、科技管理的基本概念...............4
二、科技管理的重要性.................6
第二節、技術採行............................8
一、技術採行之評估準則...............9
二、技術採行之決策分析...............12
第三節、決策分析方法........................15
第三章、技術採行時點之貝氏決策模式..........20
第一節、問題描述............................20
第二節、研究架構............................28
第三節、技術採行最適時間點之決策模式建構....30
一、技術採行最適時間點之決策模式.....30
二、事前分析與事後分析...............33
三、事後分析之前置分析...............42
第四章、應用分析............................46
第一節、技術採行時間點實例說明..............46
第二節、決策分析及結果......................50
一、事前分析.........................50
二、事後分析之前置分析...............50
三、事後分析.........................52
第三節、決策分析之討論......................54
一、分析結果比較與討論...............54
二、參數分析.........................56
第五章、結論與建議..........................61
第一節、研究成果............................61
第二節、研究限制............................62
第三節、未來研究方向........................63
參考文獻....................................65
附錄一......................................69

參考文獻
一、中文部分
高海翔，（民68），決策管理，黎明文化，台北市
張昌財，黃廷合，賴沅暉，張盛鴻，吳贊譯，李沿儒，梅國忠，（民93），科技管理導論，全華科技圖書，台北市
黎子良，（民82），統計推論與決策，聯經，台北市
顏月珠，（民78），統計學，三民，台北市
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三、網站部分
統一企業 http://www.uni-president.com.tw