臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究提出一整合性的財務危機預警模型架構，以系統化建置此問題模型系統。並依循此架構，提出一個以離群值為基礎的財務危機預警模型，其以局部離群值因子(Local Outlier Factor)來衡量樣本與同業間離群程度，輔以2D低維平面投射技術(2D low dimension projection)與依特徵排序架構(Rank-By-Feature Framework)來解決高維度資料空間中離群值不易搜尋的問題。
本研究所針對的對象為台灣上市電子科技業中的五項子產業，對於此五子產業於不同時空環境下，分別找出最適判斷其離群分析的2D低維投射平面，即模型解釋變量。在實證研究中發現，事實中財務危機公司是否進行窗飾或惡意舞弊行為，其異常現象亦傾向發生於不同類型的2D低維投射平面。
實驗結果顯示，此模型對於企業財務危機預警能掌握其徵兆，並且可使用量化的局部離群值因子來描述此一異常程度。藉由實驗案例，我們亦發現雖然異常並不必然代表其為財務經營陷入困境，但其結果仍可提供使用者充分決策資訊。

摘要 III
ABSTRACT IV
致謝 IV
表目錄 VIII
圖目錄 X
第一章　緒論 1
1.1 問題背景 1
1.2 研究動機 2
1.3 研究目的 3
1.4 研究範圍與限制 3
1.5 研究流程 4
1.6 研究架構 4
第二章　文獻探討 5
2.1 財務危機預警 5
2.2 特徵選取與維度降低 13
2.3 離群值偵測與分析 15
第三章　研究方法 19
3.1 維度降低處理 19
3.2 局部離群值因子 21
第四章　實證研究 23
4.1 整合性財務危機預警模型架構 23
4.2 實驗流程 24
4.3 實證結果分析與討論 38
第五章　結論與未來展望 47
參考文獻 48

中文部分：
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〔11〕 賴麗月，「企業失敗的預測－比例危機模型應用」，碩士論文，東吳大學會計研究所，民國八十二年。
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〔13〕 鄧志豪，「以分類樣本偵測地雷股－新財務危機預警模型」，碩士論文，國立政治大學金融學系，民國八十八年。
〔14〕 楊浚泓，「考慮財務操作與合併報表後之財務危機預警模式」，碩士論文，國立中央大學財務管理研究所，民國九十年。
〔15〕 施思佳，「電子業財務危機預警模式之研究--以現金流量觀點」，碩士論文，國立台北大學企業管理學系研究所，民國九十一年。
〔16〕 鄭國瑞，「多項財務危機預警模式之探討」，碩士論文，國立高雄第一科技大學金融營運所，民國九十年。


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