臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

行動通訊產業為近年世界各國極力扶植的新興產業。因處在高風險、不確定性的環境中，管理者為因應市場的變化，面對不同的狀況必須作出最適的投資決策，以增加企業成長機會。此外，通訊產業所面對的是競爭激烈的投資環境，投資決策者為提升本身競爭能力，擬定計畫方案時亦需考慮競爭對手帶來的影響。因此，本研究除考慮企業擁有多重彈性決策之外，也把以往所忽略的競爭因素納入考量，進而採用Trigeorgis (1996) 所提出的跳躍型對數轉換二項式模型來進行評價。此外，亦進行我國全部六家行動通訊廠商的投資機會價值評估，並且與傳統的淨現值法 (NPV) 進行比較。由研究結果顯示，當投資計畫加入選擇權價值後，擴展性NPV不僅大於傳統NPV，且在大於0情況下會採用此投資方案；但由於加入競爭因子後，確實造成部分型態的投資價值小於0，表示管理當局必須考量此一因素帶來的衝擊，才能作出最適決策。其次，當兩個選擇權混合後，其價值會大於單獨一種選擇權價值，三種選擇權的混合大於兩種，以此類推，若同時考慮四種選擇權作為決策考量後，價值最大。最後，這些選擇權彼此之間存在著交互影響，其價值是具有非相加性的(non-additive)，此與Trigeorgis (1993) 論點一致。

Mobile Telecommunication has been the most important emerging industry all over the world in recent years. Because it is under high risk and uncertainty, managers have to make applicable investment decisions to improve the growth opportunity while facing different conditions. Moreover, Telecommunication Industry is exposed to competitive investment circumstances, so that decision-makers have to take account of the influences of other competitors when drawing up plans in order to promote their competitive ability. Therefore, multiple flexible decisions and the exogenous competition factor ignored in past studies are both considered here. In this study, the Log-Transformed Binomial with exogenous jumps model of Trigeorgis (1996) is used to evaluate the values of investment opportunities of Taiwan’s six mobile telecommunication systems factories. Besides, the former results will be compared with standard NPV.
The findings are as follows. First, not only expanded NPV is greater than standard NPV, but the investment projection will be adopted when its computed expanded NPV is greater than zero. Empirical results also indicate that the management authority must think over the influences of the competitors to make the applicable investment decisions since the exogenous competition factor would make expanded NPV negative. Second, when two options are mixed, the combined-option value is greater than an individual option, for the same reason, the value of three-mixed-options is greater than that of two-mixed-options. Hence, if the four options are all taken into consideration at the same time, the greatest value could be created. Finally, the
interaction of real options do exist, and option values are
non-additive, which consists with the previous results of Trigeorgis (1993).

目錄
第一章 緒論................................................1
第一節 研究背景與動機......................................1
第二節 研究目的............................................3
第三節 研究流程輿論文架構..................................4
第二章 文獻探討............................................6
第一節 行動通訊產業........................................6
第二節 實質選擇權相關文獻.................................25
第三節 行動通訊產業在實質選擇權上的特性...................32
第三章 研究方法...........................................39
第一節 評價模式...........................................39
第二節 資料來源和參數估計.................................46
第四章 實證結果...........................................58
第一節 淨現值法分析結果...................................58
第二節 實質選擇權評價法分析結果...........................59
第三節 實證結果統整.......................................75
第五章 結論與建議.........................................79
參考文獻..................................................82
一、中文部分..............................................82
二、英文部分..............................................82

圖次
圖1-1 研究流程圖...........................................5
圖2-1 行動通訊技術發展藍圖.................................7
圖2-2 台灣行動電話市場生產成長率與出貨量(1Q02~4Q04).......33
圖2-3 中國大陸行動電話產業生產成長率與出貨量(1Q02~3Q04)...34
圖2-4 2003年V.S 2004年南韓行動電話系統標準出口產值........36
圖3-1 實質選擇權及現金流量時點圖..........................46

表次
表2-1 全球行動電話系統服務業投入3G系統標準現況............11
表2-2 實質選擇權與金融選擇權比較表........................26
表3-1 中華電信投資計畫價值................................48
表3-2 台灣大哥大投資計畫價值..............................49
表3-3 遠傳電信投資計畫價值................................50
表3-4 東信電信投資計畫價值................................51
表3-5 和信電訊投資計畫價值................................52
表3-6 泛亞電信投資計畫價值................................53
表3-7 六家行動通訊廠商現金流量表..........................56
表3-8 各家廠商主要參數值統整表............................57
表4-1 不同型態下中華電信的投資計畫價值....................62
表4-2 不同型態下台灣大哥大的投資計畫價值..................65
表4-3 不同型態下遠傳電信的投資計畫價值....................68
表4-4 不同型態下和信電訊的投資計畫價值....................70
表4-5 不同型態下泛亞電信的投資計畫價值....................72
表4-6 不同型態下東信電信的投資計畫價值....................74

一、中文部分
谷元宏 (2002)。探討行動通訊產業之營運模式及競爭優勢。國立 台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文，未出版，台北。

張興華 (2004)。台灣第三代行動通訊業務執照發放政策之經濟分析。管理評論，23(3)，71-92。

曹銘峰 (2001)。第三代行動通訊執照發放與產業競爭。台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文，未出版，台北。

蔡明洵 (2005)。五百大服務業整體表現。天下雜誌，322。

簡卡芬 (2001) 。我國行動電話產業之競爭策略。國立交通大學科技管理研究所碩士論文，未出版，新竹。

AISP情報顧問服:全國高科技產業研究資料http://lib.ncue.edu.tw/dbs.htm

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