企業在面臨多變的市場環境，為謀生存或提升營運之績效，除了生產製造之努力之外，同時也開始體認到新產品研發的重要性，因此，對新產品發展投入更多的心力。為了開發新市場及鞏固原有的顧客群，企業唯有不斷的創新與求變，才得以更具備競爭力。對企業而言，開發新產品是一項艱鉅之任務，其投入人力、時間與資金等資源為數可觀，而且其成功之機會相對的低，常讓一般企業裹足不前。有鑒於新產品研發關乎企業存續及高失敗率的關鍵地位，其有效管理將扮演重要角色。

新產品研發之任務，內涵複雜、多變而且是難以預測的不確定因素，為建立有效管理機制並評估其開發相對風險性之高低，並縮短進入市場的前置時間，以有效的搶得市場的先機，是一項刻不容緩的研究課題。過去的相關文獻中尚未提及新產品研發之不確定因素及衡量模式，本研究採用模糊理論為量化基礎，建立衡量新產品研發不確定因素之數學模式。在許多研究中模糊理論已被廣泛運用於衡量具有不確定性因素的事件及環境，因此以模糊理論評估不確定性對新產品成敗之影響應甚為恰當。

Making an effort on production functions is not the only way to seek for achieving survival or promotion operational performances, managers start to realize the importance of new product development (NPD), and thus devote more endeavors to the new product development, when facing changeable market environment. In searching for expanding new markets and fortifying their customers, the companies should constantly have the ability of innovation and change to gain or maintain the competitive advantage. Developing the new product is not an easy task for the company, as it may invest a considerable number of resources, including manpower, time and cost. However the probability of success is relatively low, which often let some company hesitate to move forward. Having the essential status associated with the company survival and the high failure rate of the new product development, the effective management of the NPD will play the vital role.
In the relevant literature the research of the NPD uncertainty has not yet been paid attention in the area of the NPD. It also has no measurement model for the application of uncertainty evaluation. This research applied the fuzzy set theory as the quantification foundation and established mathematical model for measuring the elements of uncertainty in the new product development. The fuzzy set theory has been widely applied to the factors, concerned with vague, imprecise and hard to specify the event and the environment. It is therefore appropriate to apply the fuzzy set theory to evaluate the uncertainty of developing a new product, as it inevitably affiliate to the success or failure of the NPD project.

中文摘要--------------------------------------------------------------------- i
英文摘要--------------------------------------------------------------------- ii
誌謝--------------------------------------------------------------------- iv
目錄--------------------------------------------------------------------- v
表目錄--------------------------------------------------------------------- vii
圖目錄--------------------------------------------------------------------- viii
第一章緒論--------------------------------------------------------------- 1
1.1 研究背景---------------------------------------------------------- 1
1.2 研究動機及目的------------------------------------------------- 2
1.3 研究範圍與限制------------------------------------------------- 3
1.4 研究流程---------------------------------------------------------- 4
第二章文獻探討---------------------------------------------------------- 6
2.1 新產品的定義---------------------------------------------------- 6
2.2 新產品開發流程------------------------------------------------- 10
2.3 環境不確定性---------------------------------------------------- 13
2.4 不確定性在企業管理的相關文獻----------------------------- 21
2.5 新產品開發的不確定性---------------------------------------- 24
第三章研究設計---------------------------------------------------------- 29
3.1 供應的不確定性------------------------------------------------- 30
3.2 需求的不確定性------------------------------------------------- 32
3.3 組織的不確定性------------------------------------------------- 34
3.4 競爭的不確定性------------------------------------------------- 37
3.5 配銷的不確定性------------------------------------------------- 38
3.6 生產技術的不確定性------------------------------------------- 39
3.7 環境的不確定性------------------------------------------------- 41
第四章研究方法---------------------------------------------------------- 43
4.1 模糊集合相關理論---------------------------------------------- 43
4.1.1 隸屬函數---------------------------------------------------------- 44
4.1.2 凸模糊集合------------------------------------------------------- 44
4.1.3 正規模糊集合---------------------------------------------------- 44
vi
4.1.4 模糊數------------------------------------------------------------- 44
4.1.5 三角模糊數------------------------------------------------------- 45
4.1.6 ?分割------------------------------------------------------------ 45
4.1.7 正三角模糊數---------------------------------------------------- 46
4.2 轉換相關語意變數成三角模糊數----------------------------- 48
4.3 重心法------------------------------------------------------------- 49
第五章實證研究---------------------------------------------------------- 51
第六章結論--------------------------------------------------------------- 66
參考文獻--------------------------------------------------------------------- 68
vii
表目錄
表2.1 新產品定義相關文獻----------------------------------------------- 9
表2.2 環境不確定性相關文獻-------------------------------------------- 15
表2.3 功能性與創新性產品的差異--------------------------------------- 21
表4.1 評估因素權重語意變數與三角模糊數對照表------------------- 48
表5.1 新產品開發不確定構面與因素------------------------------------ 54
表5.2 新產品開發不確定性權重值--------------------------------------- 56
表5.3 李克特尺度運用於供應的不確定性------------------------------ 58
表5.4 新產品開發成功1 S 不確定評估值--------------------------------- 59
表5.5 新產品開發成功2 S 不確定評估值--------------------------------- 61
表5.6 新產品開發中1 P 不確定評估值------------------------------------ 63
表5.7 三項新產品的不確定性評估值------------------------------------ 65
viii
圖目錄
圖1.1 研究流程圖----------------------------------------------------------- 5
圖2.1 決策情境-------------------------------------------------------------- 15
圖4.1 凸模糊集合----------------------------------------------------------- 44
圖4.2 模糊數----------------------------------------------------------------- 45
圖4.3 模糊數加法----------------------------------------------------------- 46
圖4.4 模糊數加法----------------------------------------------------------- 47
圖4.5 模湖數與實數之乘法----------------------------------------------- 47
圖4.6 五項語意變數轉換模糊數------------------------------------------ 48
圖5.1 新產品開發不確定性評估演算流程圖--------------------------- 52

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