美國在太平洋區域具有長久的經濟、政治與戰略利益，而此一區域的經濟活動佔全球經濟的二十五％，每年與美國的雙邊貿易約達六千億美元，因此，亞洲可以說是美國繁榮的重要基石。爲了塑造有利的環境，確保亞洲地區的和平與穩定，美國必須有效因應各種不同的重要挑戰。至於在這些不同的挑戰中，美國最關切的課題之一即是朝鮮半島問題。自從一九九三年~一九九四年平壤突然威脅要退出「核不擴散條約」，並拒絕聯合國原子能總署人員進入北韓對其進行無限制核子設施檢查後，北韓的核武野心與能力就吸引了全世界的注意。雖然柯林頓政府與北韓因簽署「協議架構」而暫時解決這次的核武危機，然此後卻陸續引發批評的聲浪。不僅許多人批評「協議架構」施行成效不彰之外，更認為實際上根本無法有效制約北韓，而這些聲音乃至北韓發射飛越日本領空的飛彈後，終迫使柯林頓政府進行政策上的修正。
布希政府上任之後，其所面對的依舊是不穩定的朝鮮半島局勢。二○○一年的九一一恐怖攻擊事件，除了影響美國的外交政策外，北韓在二○○二年十二月擅自重新開啟寧邊核子設施之舉動，亦讓布希總統對北韓採取相當強硬之態度。因此，本研究採取比較研究之方式，分別就美國朝鮮半島政策中的幾個重要面向來比較探討兩任政府政策之差異，如亞太政策上的異同、與盟友的關係、海外駐軍、軍事演習頻率規模…等。除外，兩位執政者於執政之初皆面臨北韓核武危機問題，其所採取的因應態度與處理方式，亦是本文研究的重點之一。最後，歸結比較研究之結果，筆者將進一步透過分析層次（國際、國內），來嘗試解釋兩位執政者政策延續或變遷之原因。

In the long term the United States has economic, political and strategic benefit in Asia area. Hence Asia is the foundation of the United States’ prosperity. In order to shape advantageous environment and assure Asian area more stable, the United States must effectively take an action for different challenges. As for these challenges, one of the challenges the United States cares most is the Korean Peninsula. Since Pyongyang’s suddenly threatening to withdraw from Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty as well as resisting the inspection of International Atomic Energy Agency in 1993-1994, North Korea’s ambition and ability to develop nuclear weapon has drawn the whole world’s attention. Although Clinton administration had signed with North Korea for Agreed Framework and resolved nuclear crisis temporarily, this provoked constantly a lot of critics. Many people criticized that Agreed Framework not only was hard to implement but also could not effectively constraint North Korea’s acts. Finally these critical voices forced Clinton to adjust its policy until the Taepodong 1 tested over Japan by North Korea in 1998.

The United States still had to face the unstable situation of the Korean Peninsula after George W. Bush’s inauguration. The terrorism of 911 not only had a great influence on the United States’ foreign policy but also made North Korea rearm with nuclear equipment in Yongbyon on 2001 December, which also made Bush have a tough attitude toward North Korea’s acts. Therefore this study uses comparative method to compare Clinton administration with Bush administration to discuss their difference and similarity about the Korean Peninsula policy, such as the difference and similarity of the united states’ Asian policy, the relation with ally, the frequency and scope of military exercise and so on. Besides, the other important part of this study is further to discuss these two administrations’ attitudes and treatment toward North Korea nuclear crisis. Finally, by means of level analysis, this study will include the international and domestic level for a trying to explain the reason why their continuity and change in Korean policy.

專有名詞中英文對照表……………………………………………………………III
第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………………1
第一節 研究動機與目的…………………………………………………………1
第二節 研究問題…………………………………………………………………3
第三節 文獻檢閱…………………………………………………………………7
第四節 研究設計與範圍 ………………………………………………………13
第五節 章節安排..………………………………………………………………14

第二章 柯林頓政府時期之朝鮮半島政策..………………………………………17
第一節 柯林頓政府之亞太戰略..………………………………………………18
第二節 美國之北韓政策—柯林頓政府時期..…………………………………25
第三節 北韓核武危機..…………………………………………………………29
第四節 結語..……………………………………………………………………39

第三章 布希政府時期之朝鮮半島政策..…………………………………………43
第一節 布希政府之亞太戰略..…………………………………………………44
第二節 美國之北韓政策—布希政府時期..……………………………………53
第三節 北韓核武危機..…………………………………………………………57
第四節 結語..……………………………………………………………………68

第四章 柯林頓與布希政府政策之比較..…………………………………………71
第一節 柯林頓與布希朝鮮半島政策之異同..…………………………………71
第二節 北韓核武危機處理方式之異同………………………………………100
第三節 結語……………………………………………………………………118

第五章 結論………………………………………………………………………121
第一節 政策遷遷之解釋—國際因素…………………………………………122
第二節 政策變遷之解釋—國內因素…………………………………………128
第三節 結語……………………………………………………………………136

表4-1 美國國家安全戰略…………………………………………………………74
表4-2 美國亞太政策…..…………………………………………………………...80
表4-3 飛彈防禦系統……………………………………………………………….85
表4-4 盟友關係、海外駐軍與軍事演習…………………………………………99
表4-5 核武危機處理之比較表...…………………………………………………116
表4-6 延續與差異之政策...………………………………………………………120

圖2-1 一九九○~二○○○年美國對亞太地區與南韓投資走勢圖 ……………27
圖2-2 北韓境內濃縮鈾儲存處、燃料加工處、反應爐、可疑核武發展之地點…31
圖2-3 寧邊可疑核設施發展情況…………………………………………………32
圖3-1 北韓境內可疑濃縮鈾發展之地點…………………………………………60

附錄一 柯林頓政府時期北韓核武危機發展之大事紀…………………………141
附錄二 布希政府時期北韓核武危機發展之大事紀……………………………145
附錄三 美國元首出訪與中日韓元首來訪之時程表……………………………151
附錄四 協議架構原文……………………………………………………………157

參考書目 …………………………………………………………………………161

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The White House. 1992.“A Strategic Framework for the Asian Pacific Rim Report to the Congress 1992.”in http://russia.shaps.hawaii.edu/security/report-92.html Latest update 10 June 2003.

The White House. 1993.“National Security Strategy of the United States.”in http://russia.shaps.hawaii.edu/security/report-93.html Latest update 10 June 2003.

The White House. 1994.“A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement.”in http://russia.shaps.hawaii.edu/security/report-94.html Latest update 10 June 2003.

The White House. 1995.“A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement.”in http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/nss/nss-95.pdf Latest update 10 June 2003.

The White House. 1996.“A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement.”in http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/nss/nss-96.htm Latest update 10 June 2003.

The White House. 1997.“A National Security Strategy for A New Century.”in http://clinton2.nara.gov/WH/EOP/NSC/Strategy/ Latest update 10 June 2003.

The White House. 1998.“A National Security Strategy for A New Century.”in http://clinton2.nara.gov/WH/EOP/NSC/html/documents/nssr.pdf Latest update 10 June 2003.

The White House. 1999.“A National Security Strategy for A New Century.”in http://www.fas.org/man/docs/nssr-1299.pdf Latest update 10 June 2003.

The White House. 2000.“A National Security Strategy for A Global Age.”in http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/ nss/nss_dec2000_contents.htm Latest update 10 June 2003.

The White House. 2002.“The National Security Strategy of the United States of America.”in http://www.usembassy.it/pdf/other/nss0902. Latest update 10 June 2003.

“The U.S.-Japan Common Agenda: A Partnership for the 21st Century, April 17 1996.”Joint statement by the U.S. and Japanese Governments released during President Clinton's State Visit to Japan in http://www.niraikanai.wwma.net/pages/archive/17496.html Latest update 10 June 2003.

“The Proliferation Security Initiative, September 4 2003.”in http://www.state.gov/t/np/rls/fs/23764.htm. Latest update 12 September 2003.

U.S. Senate Republican Policy Committee. 2003.“North Korea: Time to Change the Dynamics.”in http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKBriefingBook/uspolicy/Counterpoint-RNCExecutiveSummary.pdf Latest update 10 June 2003.

“U.S. Prepared for Serious Discussions with Pyongyang, September 6 2001.”in http://japan.usembassy.gov/e/p/tp-se0302.html. Latest update 10 June 2003.

“U.S. Global Force Posture Review, August 16 2004.”in http://fpc.state.gov/fpc/35246.htm. Latest update 18 August 2004.

Wolf, John S. 2004.“The Bush Administration's Nonproliferation Policy: An interview with Assistant Secretary of State John S. Wolf.”in http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2004_06/Wolf.asp. Latest update 01 July 2004.

Zoellick, Robert B. 2000.“A Republican Foreign Policy.”Foreign Affairs 79, 1:63-78.



二、中文書目
丁宗裕。1994。〈金日成死後對朝鮮半島情勢觀察〉。《共黨問題研究》。20，10：79。

王高成。2002。〈從小布希東亞之行看美國亞太戰略〉。《遠景季刊》3，3：76。

王長偉。2004。〈六方會談沒結論，九月再談〉。http://www.dajiyuan.com/b5/4/6/27/n580140.htm。2004/08/30。

王嘉源。2003。〈駐韓美軍重新部署達協議，未來將形成二大中心軸、三大基地 漢城龍山基地年內交還〉。《中國時報》2003/06/7：版A14。

中國社會科學院世界經濟與政治研究所國際戰略研究室。2004。〈從夏季脈動2004看美新亞太戰略〉。http://big5.china.com.cn/chinese/junshi/603147.htm。2004/06/30。

中時電子網。〈美國總統柯林頓今天指出，他已將一九九九年全國飛彈防禦〉。1999/07/25。
http://vip.tol.com.tw/CT_NS/CTContent.aspx?nsrc=B&ndate=19990725&nfno=N0114.001&nsno=1&nkeyword=%a5%fe%b0%ea%ad%b8%bcu%a8%be%bfm%a8t%b2%ce&SearchArgs=Keyword%3d%a5%fe%b0%ea%ad%b8%bcu%a8%be%bfm%a8t%b2%ce%26Attr%3d%26Src%3d7%26DateFrom%3d19990721%26DateTo%3d19990726%26ShowStyle%3d2%26PageNo%3d1%26ItemsPerPage%3d10&App=NS。2003/12/15。

中時電子網。〈美將延伸NMD 協助盟邦部署，僅對意圖不軌國家有威脅〉。2001/02/04。http://vip.tol.com.tw/CT_NS/CTContent.aspx?nsrc=B&ndate=20010204&nfno=N0058.001&nsno=24&nkeyword=%ad%b8%bcu&SearchArgs=Keyword%3d%ad%b8%bcu%26Attr%3d%26Src%3d7%26DateFrom%3d20010126%26DateTo%3d20010207%26ShowStyle%3d2%26PageNo%3d2%26ItemsPerPage%3d20&App。2003/12/15。

日本防衛廳防衛研究所編。2001。《2001年東亞戰略概觀》。日本財務省印刷局。

石舫宣。2002。《全球化時代柯林頓政府的經濟安全政策》。國立政治大學外交學系碩士論文。

李明峻。2003。〈北韓危機與亞太安全情勢〉。《台灣智庫亞太論壇》。http://www.taiwanthinktank.org/articles/upload/89_file1.pdf。2004/01/15

朱松柏。1994。〈朝鮮半島的核武危機〉。《問題與研究》33，7：1-10。

朱松柏。1995。〈美國與北韓簽訂核子協議及其影響〉。《問題與研究》34，1：12-14、16-17。

朱松柏。1997。〈朝鮮半島四邊會談的構想與實際〉。《問題與研究》 36，8：23-24。

朱松柏。2000。〈北韓飛彈外交與亞太安全〉。《問題與研究》 39，2：1-11。

朱松柏。2003。〈六邊會談與朝鮮半島核武危機〉。《展望與探索》 1，9：4-7。

朱松柏。1993。〈後冷戰時期的朝鮮半島〉。《問題與研究》 32，2：23-33。

邱坤玄。1994。〈試論柯林頓政府的「新太平洋共同體」〉。《美國月刊》 9，3：19-28。

邱坤玄。2003。〈美國的東北亞政策與展望座談會—發言稿〉。《遠景論壇》。http://www.future-china.org.tw/csipf/activity/mt910814-1.htm。2003/08/14。

邱坤玄。2004。〈北韓核武第三輪六方會談評析〉。《歐亞研究通訊》7，8。http://www.fics.org.tw/monthly/2004/200408.htm#1。2004/07/01。

吳正偉。2002年。〈北韓與美國核子協議的演變〉。《共黨問題研究》28，9：108-115。

吳懿峰。2003。《冷戰後美日安保合作與中美日三角關係》。國立政治大學外交學系碩士論文。

吳正偉。2002。《美國對北韓外交政策研究：1994-2002》。國立政治大學外交學系碩士論文。

林子洋。2000年。《飛彈防禦與國家安全》。台北：幼獅。

林郁方。1994。〈柯林頓政府的亞太戰略〉。《美國月刊》9，1：40-51。

林金莖。1993。〈柯林頓與美日關係之展望〉。《美國月刊》8，1：4-11。

林麗香。2004。〈中美在北韓核武問題的競逐〉。國立中山大學大陸研究所研究生學術發表會。http://www2.nsysu.edu.tw/macs/3_activity/20040311.doc。
2004/03/17。

郭曉瞱。1995。《北韓核武危機與柯林頓政府因應策略分析》。私立淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文。

周煦。1999年。《冷戰後美國的東亞政策：1989~1997》。台北：智生出版社。

姜家雄。2004。〈美國之朝鮮半島政策〉。《遠景論壇》。http://www.future-china.org.tw/csipf/activity/mt910814-3.htm。2004/02/02。

美國月刊編輯部。1993。〈柯林頓內閣簡介〉。《美國月刊》8，3：117。

許柏逸。2003。《柯林頓政府對1992-94年北韓核武危機政策之研究》。國立政治大學外交學系碩士論文。

許慶雄。1993。〈柯林頓與美日關係〉。《美國月刊》8，1：12-23。

馬仲可。1993。〈北韓退出防止核武器擴散條約和朝鮮半島的核問題〉。《問題與研究》。32，6：43-44。

曹智愷。2002《冷戰後戰區飛彈防禦與中美在東亞的權力平衡》。國立政治大學外交學系碩士論文。

程玉詰。1994。〈朝鮮半島問題的來龍去脈〉。《現代國際關係》。9：43-47。

張廖年仲。2004。〈中共與第二次北韓核武危機〉。《展望與探索》2，3：38

張亞中。2003。〈2001東亞情勢年中分析〉。http://www.future-china.org.tw/csipf/press/paper/pp_20010730.htm。2003/10/15。

張亞中、孫國祥。2002。《亞太綜合安全年報2001-2002》。台北：遠景基金會。

張亞中、孫國祥。2003。《亞太綜合安全年報2002-2003》。台北：遠景基金會。

張雅君。1994。〈中共在朝鮮半島核武危機中的影響力〉。《中國大陸研究》37，8：40-52。

馬仲可。1993。〈北韓退出防止核武器擴散條約和朝鮮半島的核問題〉。《問題與研究》32，6：40。

黃鴻博。1996。〈中共與「北韓核武危機」〉。《共黨問題研究》。22，2：37-38。

陳一新。2003。〈從布希的外交藍圖看美國對華政策〉。http://www.future-china.org/csipf/activity/2000115/mt200012_06.htm。2003/08/20。

陳一新。2001。〈布希政府亞太戰略的構想與部署〉。《遠景季刊》2，4：2-3、6-7、12。

陳文和。1999。〈日本外相高村正彥與美國駐日本大使佛里今天在東京簽署文件〉。http://vip.tol.com.tw/CT_NS/CTContent.aspx?nsrc=B&ndate=19990817&nfno=N0103.001&nsno=21&nkeyword=%ad%b8%bcu%a8%be%bfm&SearchArgs=Keyword%3d%ad%b8%bcu%a8%be%bfm%26Attr%3d%26Src%3d7%26DateFrom%3d19990815%26DateTo%3d19990820%26ShowStyle%3d2%26PageNo%3d3%26ItemsPerPage%3d10&App=.。2003/12/15。

陳善忠。2003。《冷戰後美國亞太戰略下之美日安保新架構與台海安全》。國立政治大學外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班碩士論文。

陳淑珠。1992。《南韓北方政策與中（共）韓關係》。私立淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士論文。

曼寧（Robert A. Manning）。1999。〈等待果陀：東北亞的未來衝擊及美日聯盟〉。收錄自《美日同盟：過去、現在、未來》。台北：國防史政編譯室。

曾淳良。2003。〈北京六方會談獲六項共識但美朝仍存重大分歧〉。http://www.dajiyuan.com/gb/3/8/29/n367033.htm。2004/09/25。

彭慧鸞。1997。〈柯林頓政府的新東亞政策：奈伊「複合式領導」的理論與實踐〉。《美歐季刊》12，3：84-85。

黃鴻博。1996。〈中共與「北韓核武危機」〉。《共黨問題研究》 22，2：36-46。

黃山。2003。〈戰略重心轉向亞洲十萬美軍虎視亞太〉。《環球時報》http://www.future-china.org.tw/fcn/ideas/fcs20010522.htm。2003/09/25。

傅有敏。2000。《後冷戰時期北韓核武飛彈發展與東北亞安全》。國立政治大學外交學系碩士論文。

國防史政編譯局譯。2002。《美日聯盟的新挑戰 The Japan-U.S. Alliance New Challenges for the 21st Century》。台北：國防史政編譯室。

國防史政編譯局譯。2001。《美日聯盟：過去、現在與未來》。台北：國防史政編譯室。

楊永明。1997。〈美國亞太安全戰略之理論分析〉。《美歐季刊》12，3：35-71。

穆仁國。2002。《美日1997年簽訂防衛合作新指針後之東北亞安全新趨勢》。國立政治大學外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班碩士論文。

劉黎兒。2002。〈布希日韓行程，美日將確認強化安保合作〉。《中國時報》2002/02/17。http://vip.tol.com.tw/CT_NS/CTContent.aspx?nsrc=B&ndate=20020217&nfno=N0003.001&nsno=2&nkeyword=%ac%fc%a4%e9%a6w%abO&SearchArgs=Keyword%3d%ac%fc%a4%e9%a6w%abO%26Attr%3d%26Src%3d7%26DateFrom%3d20020215%26DateTo%3d20020218%26ShowStyle%3d2%26PageNo%3d1%26ItemsPerPage%3d20&App=NS。2003/12/15。

衛嘉定。1994。〈析論柯林頓政府的公共外交政策〉。《美國月刊》9，1：64-79。

鄭端耀。2003。〈布希政府安全戰略發展評析〉。《遠景基金會季刊》4，2：2-3、6、10-12。

賴怡忠。2003。〈邁向不確定未來的東北亞戰略環境〉。台灣智庫。http://www.taiwanthinktank.org/index1.php。2003/12/15。

閻紀宇。2001a。〈布希重申裁減核武〉。http://vip.tol.com.tw/CT_NS/CTContent.aspx?nsrc=B&ndate=20010128&nfno=N0048.001&nsno=43&nkeyword=%ad%b8%bcu&SearchArgs=Keyword%3d%ad%b8%bcu%26Attr%3d%26Src%3d7%26DateFrom%3d20010126%26DateTo%3d20010207%26ShowStyle%3d2%26PageNo%3d3%26ItemsPerPage%3d20&App=。2001/01/28。

閻紀宇。2001b。〈鮑爾重申建構ＮＭ不惜退出ＡＢＭ條約〉。http://vip.tol.com.tw/CT_NS/CTContent.aspx?nsrc=B&ndate=20010206&nfno=N0074.001&nsno=7&nkeyword=%ad%b8%bcu&SearchArgs=Keyword%3d%ad%b8%bcu%26Attr%3d%26Src%3d7%26DateFrom%3d20010126%26DateTo%3d20010207%26ShowStyle%3d2%26PageNo%3d1%26ItemsPerPage%3d20&App=NS。2001/02/06。

閻紀宇。2002。〈消弭危機美願與北韓溝通鮑爾表示不打算對北韓發動先制惟高層另傳出將祭出政經圍堵政策迫北韓知難而退〉。《中國時報》2002/12/30：A10。

閻紀宇。2003a。〈美三位一體戰略衝著北韓來布希密令點名主威脅指建構飛彈防禦系統保護自身與盟國刻不容緩〉。《中國時報》2003/05/28：A11。

閻紀宇。2003b。〈四國珊瑚海演習模擬攔截核武船隻〉。《中國時報》2003/09/14：A14。

鍾玉玨。2002。〈化解女學生遭輾斃引發高漲反美情緒 南韓促修法 擴大對駐在美軍管轄權〉。《中國時報》2002/12/04：A13。

〈美國與北韓和談獲突破性進展〉。1994。《大陸情勢週報》1994/12/05：22-23。