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研究生:曾應泉
研究生(外文):Yin-chuan Tseng
論文名稱:資訊通信科技(ICT)投入對台灣製造業產出成長之實證分析
論文名稱(外文):The Information and Communication Technology Contribution to Output Growth~The Empirical Analysis of Manufacturing Industries in Taiwan
指導教授:周濟周濟引用關係
指導教授(外文):Ji Chou
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:東吳大學
系所名稱:經濟學系
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2005
畢業學年度:93
語文別:中文
論文頁數:102
中文關鍵詞:資訊通信科技新經濟動態要素需求模型外溢效果向前關聯向後關聯規模效果
外文關鍵詞:dynamic factors demand modelinformation and communication technology (ICT)spillover effectsbackward-linkagebackward-linkagenew economyscale effects
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有鑑於90年代美國經濟持續性地擴張,形成所謂的「新經濟(new economy)」,並吸引許多學者投身研究,然多數學者皆認為產生「新經濟」最主要的原因,係源自於80年代以來,資訊通信科技(information and communication technology, ICT)之發展與大量應用。同時,Stiroh(2001)指出ICT資本有別於一般資本之處,乃在於ICT資本的使用會產生相當可觀的外溢效果(spillover effect)。
本文之目的主要在於瞭解ICT資本之使用,對台灣製造業之要素需求與產出成長之影響,透過Nadiri and Prucha(1990,1999)動態要素需求模型之修正,使該模型內含ICT資本及其所產生的外溢效果,並引進投入產出表(input-output table)中之向前關聯(forward-linkage)與向後關聯(backward-linkage)效果。其次,透過一些統計調查指標,建立起台灣製造產業之ICT投入資料庫,並進行實證研究與分析。最後得出以下的結論:1、ICT資本及其外溢效果可節省中間原材料與非ICT要素之投入、增加ICT勞動之需求,並可提昇技術;2、向後關聯之外溢效果大於向前關聯之外溢效果;3、外溢效果為負數時,調整成本對產出之負面衝擊亦較大;4、總要素生產力可分解為:規模效果、調整成本效果、外溢效果與技術進步;5、產出成長主要源自於規模效果、ICT投入(資本與勞動力)之使用與技術進步。
The resurgence of U.S. economic growth in the 1990s has generated considerable attention with many studies reporting a substantial impact from both the development and the use of information and communication technology (ICT). Many researchers all refer American long-run economic expansion to “New Economy”. Stiroh(2001) showed that the difference between ICT capital and non-ICT capital was that ICT capital would result in spillover effects.
Our purposes of this paper, first, were that we modified the dynamic factors demand model on the papers of Nadiri and Prucha(1990,1999) in order to include the ICT capital, ICT capital’s spillover and the effect of forward- and backward-linkage in input-output table into dynamic factors demand model. Second, we construct an ICT inputs database of manufacturing industries in Taiwan. Finally, our empirical analysis shows the following results. First, ICT capital and ICT capital’s spillover effects will save the inputs of intermediate materials and non-ICT inputs, but increase the demand of ICT labors. Second, the backward-linkage effects of ICT capital’s spillover are greater than the forward-linkage effects of ICT capital’s spillover. Third, the negative effects of ICT capital’s adjustment costs to output will be great when the spillover effects are negative. Fourth, we can decompose the total factor production into scale effects, effects of adjustment cost, spillover effects and pure technical progress. Fifth, the sources of output growth in manufacturing industries of Taiwan are scale effects, ICT capital, ICT labor and technical progress in order.
目 錄
頁次
第一章 緒論………………………………………....………..1
第一節 研究動機與研究目的…………………………………….1
壹、研究動機............……………………………………..1
貳、研究目的.......…….............................…8
第二節 研究方法.....................................13
第三節 本文架構....…………………...................14
第二章 文獻回顧...…………….....................….16
第一節 『資訊生產力矛盾說』之緣起…………………….…16
第二節 資訊生產力矛盾原因之探討…….………………..….21
壹、 衡量誤差…………………….……….............…..22
貳、 遞延效果…….............…………….............27
參、 資本存量理論效果………………………………………..28
肆、 調整成本………………....…………………..........29
伍、 加總偏誤………………….….......................30
陸、 重分配效果………………..……....................33
柒、 不當管理…………………………....................34
第三節 相關實證研究之整理與比較………………….......36
第三章 模型設定與計量方法………………............….48
第一節 理論模型之探討與修正……………….............48
第二節 實證模型之建立.....….……...............…….54
第三節 計量方法之應用…………………………………………63
第四章 資料處理與實證分析..…………………............65
第一節 資料處理與分析........……..................65
第二節 計量估計結果………...…………………...…… ..73
第三節『資訊通信科技』效果之實證分析….…………………75
壹、準固定要素之內生調整成本…………………….………..75
貳、使用效果分析………………………...…………….…...76
參、外溢效果分析………………………………….……………80
肆、產出成長之解析…………………………………………….81
第五章 結 論………….……........................... 90
壹、本文結論………………………………………………….…90
貳、研究限制…………………………………………………….91
參、未來研究方向……………………………………………….92
參考文獻……………………………………………….....……94

圖 表 目 錄
頁次
圖一、美國經濟成長率(1960-2003)……….…….………...1
圖二、台灣(TW)與美國(US)經濟成長之相關性(1960-2003).7
圖三、ICT資本與勞動之比重…………………………....…..70
圖四、1982 年及2002年之ICT資本密集度………………..….70
表一、國外ICT相關文獻彙整表..……………………...…...38
表二、國外ICT相關文獻分類統計......……………........40
表三、國外ICT相關文獻實證結果統計(以文獻篇數計算)....44
表四、國外ICT相關文獻實證結果統計(以研究個案計算)..…45
表五、ICT投入成長概況(1982 V.S 2002)……………….……71
表六、製造業產出與各項要素投入平均值,1981-2002…….…72
表七、需求函數之估計參數結果……………..……………...74
表八、製造業各分業調整成本之比重……………..………...77
表九、限制變動成本與各項投入對ICT資本之彈性…………..79
表十、ICT資本外溢之短期效果………….……….……………82
表十一、ICT資本外溢之長期效果……….………...………..83
表十二、各製造業產出成長來源之分析(單位:%)…………..86
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