臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

食、衣、住等因素在過去的所得消費中佔有相當大的比例，但隨著經濟發展以及國民所得的增加，這些因素所佔的比重減少，取而代之的是醫療、娛樂以及通訊等支出。根據主計處九十一年度家庭收支調查報告顯示，隨著國人平均壽命延長，衛生保健觀念增強，醫療及保健支出比重增至12.3％。傳統的實證研究上，在研究兩變數乃至多變數之間的關係時，習慣以解釋變數來分析被解釋變數的行為，並且能進一步了解其間的因果關係。而本文以分量迴歸方法（Quantile regression）深入探討，試以解釋OLS迴歸方式所無法解釋的範圍。
本研究資料來源為行政院主計處「家庭收支調查報告」81、86及91年的資料，以家庭為基本單位，實證結果發現分量迴歸在某些場合中的確比OLS模型的解釋能力來得廣。而無論是OLS或是各分量在這三年間家庭所得與醫療支出皆呈顯著的正向關係，在研究醫療支出高的族群中，我們發現除了家庭所得外，在觀察研究醫療支出高的族群時，家庭人數、家庭平均年齡、家中6歲以下孩童人數、家中65歲以上老年人口、居住地區也是要考慮瞭解的部分，因此，影響醫療支出的決定因素除了經濟因素外，非經濟因數中家庭特質的表現影響比興趣與偏好深遠，本文以迴歸模型及分量迴歸模型分別求出其醫療所得彈性，家庭醫療所得彈性以OLS估計為0.33∼0.53，而在分量迴歸下，各分量的醫療所得彈性為0.209∼0.539，顯示不論在OLS模型下估計，還是分量迴歸模型，表示家庭醫療總支出為正常財，且為必需品。

The expenditures on foods, dressings, and hosing etc. share a large portion of household income. As an economy develops and income increases, shares of above factors decline but shares of health care, entertainment, and communication increase. According to the 2002 Survey of Family Income and Expenditures (SFIE), as the aging of the population, the share of health care expenditure in GDP increases up to 12.3%. In traditional empirical analysis, one usually uses a regression approach to analyze the causal relationship between a dependent variable and a set of independent variables. In this study, we use a quantile regression method to assess the various marginal effects of an independent on the distribution of household health care expenditure in comparison with the OLS mean regression method.
The household data used are the SFIE in 1992, 1997, and 2002. Empirical results show that quantile regression offers broader estimates of marginal effects than the OLS regression method. Family income and family medical expenditure have significantly positive relationship. The factors of family members, family mean age, number of kids (below 6 years old) and elders (above 65 years old), and residence region influence the portion of the highest medical expenditure quantile. In addition to economic factors, family traits have greater influences than interests and hobbies in the non-economic factors. The medical income elasticities of OLS estimates are 0.33 to 0.53 and of the quantile estimates are 0.209 to 0.539. This implies that family medical expenditure is a normal good and also a necessity.

中文摘要……………………………………………………………………………... i
英文摘要…………………………………………………………………………… ii
目錄…………………………………………………………………………………... iii
表目錄………………………………………………………………………………... v
圖目錄………………………………………………………………………………... vi
第一章 緒論
第一節 研究動機與背景…………………………………………………… 1
第二節 研究目的與方法…………………………………………………….. 3
第三節 預期結果與全文架構……………………………………………….. 4
第二章 文獻探討
第一節 總體經濟關於醫療支出影響因素的探討………………………….. 6
第二節 個體經濟關於醫療支出影響因素的探討………………………….. 15
第三節 綜合歸納…………………………………………………………….. 22
第三章 模型設定
第一節 Becker家庭生產函數（純消費模型, pure consumption model）… 25
第二節 分量迴歸法………………………………………………………….. 27
第三節 模型的建構…………………………………………………………... 31
第四章 資料描述
第一節 資料來源……………………………………………………………... 36
第二節 經濟因素的基本描述………………………………………………... 37
第三節 其他因素的基本描述………………………………………………... 39
第五章 實證結果
第一節 81年度所得的結果…………………………………………………. 45
第二節 86年度所得的結果………………………………………………….. 48
第三節 91年度所得的結果…………………………………………………. 51
第四節 綜合歸納……………………………………………………………. 54
第六章 結論與建議
第一節 結論與建議………………………………………………………….. 56
第二節 研究的限制…………………………………………………………. 59
參考文獻………………………………………………………………………… 67

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