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研究生:李冠成
研究生(外文):Kuan-Cheng Lee
論文名稱:「M+1」法則與有效候選人數的實證分析:以1992年至2004年台灣地區立法委員選舉為例
論文名稱(外文):The Empirical Analysis of M+1 Rule and the Effective Number of Candidates: The Case of the Legislative Yuan Elections in Taiwan from 1992 to 2004
指導教授:劉從葦劉從葦引用關係
指導教授(外文):Tsung-wei Liu
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中正大學
系所名稱:政治學所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:政治學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2005
畢業學年度:94
語文別:中文
論文頁數:110
中文關鍵詞:學習效果選舉情境有效候選人數M+1法則政黨協調問題選區規模
外文關鍵詞:learning effectselection contextM+1 rulethe effective number of candidatesproblems of coordinationdistrict magnitude
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:1
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  • 下載下載:53
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:1
摘 要
根據Gary Cox提出的「M + l法則」(M表示選區的應選席次數),在單記非讓渡投票制下,因為機械性因素與心理性因素,每個選區中的選票會集中在M+1位候選人身上。但相關的實證結果卻顯示選票並不是完全匯集於M+1位候選人身上,而是大多有程度不等的偏離。然而,經驗證據呈現的偏離仍然可以從理性抉擇理論的觀點加以解釋,而非M+1法則在理論上有根本的錯誤。

本研究以實際有效候選人數與M+1法則的偏差量為依變數。對於造成偏差的影響因素,本文認為應該考量完整的選舉過程,亦即從進入選舉(獨立候選人參選與政黨提名策略)、選舉活動與策略(政黨配票與棄保)、到最後的選民抉擇(供作棄保判斷的資訊是否充分),而同時這每一個階段又都會受到選舉制度的影響。在理論探討之後並以實證資料檢驗所提出的解釋。

本文以台灣1992至2004年五屆區域立委選舉的總體資料為基礎,檢驗影響各選區有效候選人數偏離M+1法則的因素。依據理性抉擇理論的推演,研究結果發現:(a)選區規模越大,則有效候選人數與M+1法則間的偏差量越大。(b)政黨在選區中過度提名,則傾向於增加偏差量;政黨若在選區中低度提名或成扒i行棄保操作,則會明顯縮減有效候選人數與理論預期的差距。(c)選區競爭越激烈、新進候選人數越多,選民資訊品質越差,則偏差量越大。(d)在各政黨與選民逐漸熟悉單記非讓渡投票制的情況下,在政黨競爭型態類似的選舉中,傾向減少有效候選人數與M+1法則的偏差量。

關鍵詞:M+1法則、有效候選人數、選區規模、 政黨協調問題、選舉情境、
學習效果
Abstract
According to the “M+1 rule” proposed by Gary Cox, under the single non-transferable vote system the number of effective candidates tends to be M+1 (M stands for district magnitudes) as a result of mechanical and psychological factor. However, the empirical studies show that votes are not received by M+1 candidates, but there are various degrees of deviations. The deviations do not demonstrate the mistakes inherent in the theory of M+1 rule. Instead, the empirical deviations can be explained by the rational choice theory.
In this research, the dependent variable is the differences between the effective numbers of candidates and the numbers predicted by the M +1 rule. When discussing the explanations for the deviations, this research argues that the entire electoral procedure should be considered, namely from entering elections (the participation of independent candidates and party nomination strategies), the campaigning effort (votes distributions within party candidates), to choices made by voters at the final step (whether to vote strategically based on the information available). Besides, all of each stage is influenced by the electoral system. After the theoretical deduction, the hypotheses are examined against the empirical data.
The data used in this research are the aggregate data at district level in the Legislative Yuan Elections in Taiwan from 1992 to 2004. The results of empirical examination are: (a) The larger the district magnitude, the greater the deviation of the effective number of candidates from the M +1 rule. (b) Overnominations by parties in districts tend to increase the bias. Undernominations or successful votes distributions within parties can reduce the disparity between the effective number of candidates and theoretical expectation. (c) The more competitive among candidates and the greater the number of candidates, the worse the voters’ information quality, and therefore the greater the deviation. (d) When the parties and voters are getting familiar with SNTV, the deviations are decreasing in similar party systems.

Keywords: M+1 rule, the effective number of candidates, district magnitude, problems of coordination, election context, learning effects.
第一章 緒 論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的與重要性 3
第三節 章節安排 5
第二章 文獻回顧與理論探討 6
第一節 機械因素:選舉制度 7
第二節 心理因素:選民的策略性投票 12
第三節 M+1法則與相關實證研究 15
第四節 政黨協調問題 22
第五節 學習效果 30
第六節 有效候選人數的測量問題 32
第七節 小 結 38
第三章 研究設計 40

第一節 研究範圍 40
第二節 研究架構與變數 42
第三節 待驗假設 45
第四節 變數的定義與測量 46
第五節 資料來源與分析方法 54
第四章 M+1法則的實證分析 56
第一節 M+1法則與台灣立委選舉結果的相符程度 56
第二節 有效候選人數偏離M+1法則成因的實證分析 63
第三節 實證結果的檢討 70
第五章 結 論 85
第一節 研究發現 85
第二節 研究限制 87
第三節 研究展望 88
參考文獻 90
《附 錄》 101
參考文獻
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三、網路資料:
中央選舉委員會:〈選舉資料庫網站〉,2005,網址:http://210.69.23.140/cec/cechead.asp,取用時間2005/6/2。

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1. 謝相慶,1995,〈選舉制度與選舉結果不比例現象-跨國性比較研究的檢討〉,《選舉研究》,第二卷,第二期,頁137-170。
2. 謝相慶,1994,〈選舉結果不比例性的測量指數-方法論的評析〉,《選舉研究》,第一卷,第二期,頁131-161。
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4. 劉義周,1992,〈國民黨責任區輔選活動之參與觀察研究〉,《國立政治大學學報》,第64期,頁209-233。
5. 黃德福、張佑宗,1994,〈邁向三黨競爭體系?-民主鞏固與台灣政黨體系的變遷〉,《政治學報》,23,頁197-225。
6. 黃德福,1993,〈選舉制度與政黨政治-台灣地區解嚴候選舉競爭的觀察〉,《理論與政策》,第七卷,第四期,頁3-21。
7. 黃秀端,2001,〈單一選區與複數選區相對多數制下的選民策略投票〉,《東吳政治學報》,第十三期,頁37-75。
8. 游清鑫,2000,〈競選策略的個案研究:1998年民進黨台北市南區立法委員選舉的探討〉,《選舉研究》,第六卷,第二期,頁163-190。
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