跳到主要內容

臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

(18.97.9.169) 您好!臺灣時間:2025/01/19 01:00
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  
回查詢結果 :::

詳目顯示

我願授權國圖
: 
twitterline
研究生:李曉佩
研究生(外文):Hsiao-pei Lee
論文名稱:影響投資人交易獲利之因素
論文名稱(外文):Investors’ Behaviors and Trading Profitability
指導教授:林岳喬林岳喬引用關係
指導教授(外文):Yueh-Chiau Lin
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中正大學
系所名稱:會計所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:會計學類
論文種類:學術論文
畢業學年度:94
語文別:中文
論文頁數:52
中文關鍵詞:行為財務學處份效果經驗效應
外文關鍵詞:Disposition EffectExperience EffectBehavior Finance
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:2
  • 點閱點閱:365
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:4
本研究利用證券公司提供在2004年1月到2005年10月間的交易資料,選取了48,000個投資人帳戶,針對投資人屬性及交易行為對其異常報酬的影響作探討。

根據實證研究結果顯示,在投資行為分析上,女性處分效果的投資行為較男性嚴重,散戶傾向持有輸家組合的比例較機構投資人高出釵h,而在經驗效應的投資行為分析中,以散戶較為顯著,而在性別區分上,女性相較於男性較易有經驗效應的投資現象發生。

針對散戶投資人研究時,我們發現:
1. 處分效果的投資行為,對異常報酬有顯著的正相關
2. 經驗效應的投資效果,對異常報酬有明顯的負相關
Using account data for over 48,000 households from a large securities firm, we analyze the common stock investments of men, women, Individual Investors and institutional Investors from February 2004 through October 2005. We investigate that the relationship between abnormal return and investors’ behavior:

As the result, female individuals are tended to have Disposition Effect. The disposition effect for individual investors is more serious than that for institutional Investor. We found that individual investors and female investors are more likely to repurchase a stock that they previously sold for a gain than they are to repurchase a stock that they previously sold at a loss.

When we take individual investors as the research target, the relationship between abnormal return and investors’ behavior:
1. Disposition effect has positive relationship with abnormal return
2. Experience effect has negative relationship with abnormal return.
摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
目錄 III
圖目錄 IV
表目錄 V
第壹章 緒 論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 3
1.3研究貢獻 4
第貳章 文獻探討 5
2.1展望理論(Prospect theory) 5
2.2投資人行為偏誤種類 8
2.2.1代表性偏誤(Representativeness heuristic) 9
2.2.2易獲得性偏誤 (Availability heuristic) 10
2.2.3經驗效應(Experience effect) 10
2.2.4錨定與調整(Anchoring and adjustment) 11
2.2.5過度自信(Overconfidence) 13
2.2.5.1過度自信與交易頻繁 15
2.2.5.2過度自信與獲利能力 17
2.3文獻之比較 19
第參章 研究方法與設計 23
3.1資料來源 24
3.2研究期間與樣本選取標準 24
3.2資料處理與變數衡量 26
第肆章 實證結果與分析 35
4.1交易樣本敘述統計量 35
4.2各類投資人之處份效果行為 36
4.3各類投資人之經驗效應行為 37
4.4各類投資人屬性對績效之影響 38
4.5各類投資人交易行為對績效之影響 40
第伍章結論與建議 43
5.1研究結論 43
5.2研究限制 44
5.3研究建議 45
參考文獻 46

圖目錄

圖2-1 展望理論 6
圖3-1 觀念架構 23


表目錄

表2-1 文獻比較 19
表3-1資料來源整埋 24
表3-2樣本涵輕褻?24
表4-1投資人資料基本統計量 36
表4-2各類投資人之處份效果行為 37
表4-3各類投資人之經驗效應行為 38
表4-4散戶屬性對績效之影響 39
表4-5機構投資人屬性對績效之影響 40
表4-6投資人屬性對績效之影響 40
表4-7散戶交易行為對績效之影響 41
表4-8機構投資人交易行為對績效之影響 42
表4-9投資人交易行為對績效之影響 42
周賓凰、池祥萱、周冠男、龔怡霖,2002,行為財務學:文獻回顧與展望,證券市場發展季刊,第54期。

邱顯比、陳虹霖,2001,國內共同基金投資人過度自信行為之研究,國立臺灣大學未出版論文。

郭敏華,2004,代表性偏誤與經驗效應之探討,貨幣觀測與信用評等,9月。

郭敏華、范秉航,2004,台灣投資人性別與投資行為之研究,性別、媒體與文化學術研討會論文。

郭敏華、黃威智,2003,投資人代表性捷思傾向之探討──以類似事件資訊效果之關聯性為例,中華管理評論,第6卷第6期(12月),34-49。

劉玉珍、洪茂蔚、戴維芯,2004,從展望理論看選舉決策,TEJ 信用風險評估專刊(1月)。

顏信輝、丁緯,2004,由心理學經驗法則觀點探討盈餘預測之偏誤類型:併論盈餘水準之影響,當代會計,第5卷第2期(11月),139-174頁。

Abarbanell and Bernard. 1992. ”Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/ Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior”. Journal of Finance 47 (July): 1181-1207.

Alpert and Raiffa. 1982. “A Progress Report on the Training of Probability Assessors.” in , D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press,) 294-305.

Ariely, Loewenstein and Prelec. 2003. “Coherent Arbitrariness: Stable Demand Curves Without Stable Preferences.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118 (1), 73-105.

Barber and Odean 1999. “The Courage of Misguided Convictions: The Trading Behavior of Individual Investors.” SSRN Working Paper.

Barber and Odean. 2000. “Trading is hazardous to your wealth: The common stock investment performance of individual investors.” Journal of Finance, Vol. 55, No. 2, p.773-806.

Barber and Odean. 2001. “ Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, February, Vol. 116, No. 1, 261-292.

Barber, Odean , Lee and Liu. 2005. “Who Loses from Trade? Evidence from Taiwan.” SSRN Working Paper.

Baumann, Deber, and Thompson. 1991. “Overconfidence Among Physicians and Nurses: The ‘Micro-Certainty, Macro-Uncertainty.” Phenomenon.” Social Science and Medicine, XXXII 167-174.

Bernard and Thomas. 1989. “Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift: Delayed Price Response or Risk Premium?” Journal of Accounting Research 27 (Supplement): 1-36.

Beyer and Bowden. 1997. “Gender Differences in Self-perceptions: Convergent Evidence from Three Measures of Accuracy and Bias.” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, XXIII 157-172.

Cabslle and Sakovics. 1998. ”Overconfident speculation with imperfect competition.” working paper, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Spain.

Carhart 1997. “On persistence in mutual fund perfo rmance.” Journal of Finance 52, 57-82.

Chapman and Johnson. 2002. “Incorporating the Irrelevant: Anchors in Judgments of Belief and Value.” in Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman (eds.), Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, pp. 120-138, Cambridge University Press.

Christensen-Szalanski and Bushyhead. 1998. “Physicians’ Use of Probabilistic Information in a Real Clinical Setting.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, VII 928-935.

Cooper, Woo, and Dunkelberg. 1998. “Entrepreneurs’ Perceived Chances for Success.” Journal of Business Venturing, III 97- 108.

Cutle, Porterba and Summers. 1991. “Speculative dynamic.” Review of Economic Studies 58(3):529-46

Cutler, Porterba and Summers. 1989. “What moves stock price?” Journal of Portfolio Management 15(3):4-2

De Bondt 1991. “What do economists know about the stock market?” Journal of Portfolio Management 17, 84-91.

De Bondt 1998. “A portrait of the individual investor.” European Economic Review 42, 831-844.

De Bondt and Thaler. 1985. “Does the stock market overreact? ” Journal of Finance 40, 793-808.

De Bondt and Thaler. 1987. “Further evidence on investor overreaction and stock market seasonality.” Journal of Finance 42, 557-581.

De Bondt and Thaler. 1990. “Do Security Analysts Overreact?” American Economic Review 80 May: 52-57.

Deaux and Emswiller. 1974. “Explanations of Successful Performance on Sex-linked Tasks: What is Skill for the Male is Luck for the Female.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, XXIX 80-85.

Diether, Malloy, and Scherbina. 2002. “Differences of opinion and the cross section of stock returns.” Journal of Finance 57, 2113–2141.

Fischhoff, Slovic and Lichtenstein. 1977. “Knowing with uncertainty: the appropriateness of extreme confidence.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 1, 288-299.

Frank 1935. “Some Psychological Determinants of the Level of Aspiration.” American Journal of Psychology, XLVII 285-293.

Green, Karen E, Kahneman and McFadden. 1998. “Referendum Contingent Valuation, Anchoring, and Willingness to Pay for Public Goods.“ Resource and Energy Economics, 20 (2), 85-116.

Greenwald 1980. “The totalitarian ego: Fabrication and revision of personal history.” American Psychologist, 35, 603-618.

Hong and Stein. 2003. “Differences of opinion, short-sales constraints and market crashes.” Review of Financial Studies forthcoming.

Jacowitz and Kahneman. 1995. “Measures of Anchoring in Estimation Tasks.” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 21 (11), 1161-1167.

Kahneman and Tversky. 1973. “On The Psychology of Prediction.” Psychological Review, Vol. 80, No. 4, July, 237~251.

Kahneman and Tversky. 1979. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk.” Econometrica 47: 263-291.

Kidd 1970. “The Utilization of Subjective Probabilities in Production Planning.” Acta Psychologica, XXXIV 338-347.

Klein 1990. “A Direct Test of the Cognitive Bias Theory of Share Price Reversals.” Journal of Accounting and Economics 13, 155-166.

Knutson, Adams, Fong and Hommer. 2001. “Anticipation of increasing monetary reward selectively recruits nucleus accumbens.” The Journal of Neuroscience, 21:RC159, 1-5.

Lei Feng and Seasholes. 2005. “Do Investor Sophistication and Trading Experience Eliminate Behavioral Biases in Financial Markets?” SSRN Working Paper.

Lenney 1977. “Women’s Self-confidence in Achievement Settings.” Psychological Bulletin, LXXXIV 1-13.

Lewellen , Lease and Schlarbaum. 1977. “Patterns of Investment Strategy and Behavior Among Individual Investors.” Journal of Business, L 296-333.

Lichtenstein, Fischhoff and Phillips. 1982. “Calibration of probability:The state of the art to 1980.” In Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky(Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty:Heuristics and bias, pp.306-334, Cambridge University Press.

Lundeberg, Fox and Punccohar. 1994. “Highly Confident but Wrong: Gender Differences and Similarities in Confidence Judgments.” Journal of Educational Psychology, LXXXVI 114-121.

Markus and Weber. 2003. “Overconfidence and Trading Volume.”SSRN working paper.

Miller and Cohen. 2001. “An integrative theory of prefrontal cortex function.” Annual Review of Neuroscience, 24, 167-202.

Nicholas Barberis and Thaler. 2002. “A Survey of Behavioral Finance.” SSRN Working Paper.

Odean and Barber. 2002. “Online investors: Do the slow die first?”. Review of Financial Studies 15, 455–487.

Odean and Gervais. 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident", Review of Financial Studies, Spring, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 1-27.

Odean, Strachilevitz, and Barber. 2004. “Once Burned, Twice Shy : How Naïve Learning and Counterfactuals Affect the Repurchase of Stocks Previously Sold.” SSRN Working Paper.

Odean. 1998a. “Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?” The Journal of Finance, Vol. 53, 1775-1798.

Odean. 1998b. “Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When all Traders are Above Average.” Journal of Finance, LIII 1887-1934.

Odean. 1999. “Do Investors Trade Too Much?” The American Economic Review, December, 1279-1298.
Oskamp 1965. “Overconfidence in Case-study Judgments.” Journal of Consulting Psychology, XXIX261-265.

Pennington and Hastie. 1988. “Explanation-based decision making: Effects of memory structure on judgment.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 14, 521-533.

Raaij, Veldhoven and Warneryd. 1988. “Handbook of Economic Psychology.” Kluwer Academic Publishers.

RAVI DHAR and NING ZHU. 2002. “Up Close and Personal: An Individual Level Analysis of the Disposition Effect.” SSRN Working Paper.

Russo and Schoemaker. 1992. “Managing Overconfidence.” Sloan Management Review, XXXIII 7-17.

Shefrin and Statman. 1985. “The disposition to sell winners too early and ride losers too long: Theory and evidence.” Journal of Finance 40, 777-790

Shefrin and Statman. 1995. ” Making sense of beta, size and price to book.” Journal of Portfolio Management 21.

Shiller 2000. “Irrational Exuberance.” Princeton University Press.Shiller, Robert J.1999. “Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system.” in J.B. Taylor, and M. Woodford, ed.: Handbook of Macroeconomics . pp. 1305–1340 (Elsevier Science).

Solt and Statman. 1989. “Good companies, bad stocks.” Journal of Portfolio Management, 15.

Staël von Holstein, and Carl-Axel S. 1972. “Probabilistic Forecasting: An Experiment Related to the Stock Market.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, VIII 139-158.

Taylor and Johathon. 1988. “Illusion and well-being: A social psychological perspective on mental health.” Psychological Bulletin, 103, 193-210.

Thaler and Johnson. 1990. “Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice.” Management Science 36: 643-660。

Tversky and Kahneman. 1974. “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” Science 185, 1124-1131.

Wagenaar and Keren. 1986. “Does the Expert Know? The Reliability of Predictions and Confidence Ratings of Experts.” in Erik Hollnagel, Giuseppe Mancini, David D. Woods, eds., Intelligent Decision Support in Process Environments
QRCODE
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top