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研究生:徐玉瑛
研究生(外文):Yu-Ying Hsu
論文名稱:亞洲單一貨幣化與海外投資政策關聯性分析
論文名稱(外文):A Study of the Relationship between Asian Currency Unification and Foreign Investment Policy
指導教授:陳若暉陳若暉引用關係
指導教授(外文):Jo-Hui Chen
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:中原大學
系所名稱:企業管理研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2006
畢業學年度:94
語文別:中文
論文頁數:153
中文關鍵詞:關鍵字:亞洲單一貨幣(ACU)向量誤差修正模型(VECM)向量自向我迴歸模型(VAR)亞洲區域經濟整合
外文關鍵詞:VECM ModelVAR ModelIntegration of Asia Regional EconomyKeywords:Asia Currency Unit (ACU)
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:8
  • 點閱點閱:247
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:1
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:2
亞洲區域經濟整合的共識及發展,在東協諸國與日本、中國及韓國的的推波助瀾下日趨成熟。亞洲開發銀行近期積極的推動亞洲單一匯率通貨籃的組合及權重的整合,期望透過單一貨幣的實施促使亞洲區域的經濟快速整合,使之成為世界第一大的經濟貿易區域。
本研究針對過去十三年的東協成員國,印尼、新加坡、馬來西亞、泰國、菲律賓、寮國,越南、緬甸、柬埔寨及日本、中國、韓國等十二國為樣本。首先以上述十二國之貿易總額、國內生產毛額及外匯存底三項變數,虛擬亞洲單一貨幣之中心匯率。利用共整合檢定、穩定性檢定、向量自我迴歸模型及向量誤差修正模型,探討亞洲單一貨幣與工業生產指數、短期利率、海外直接投資、進口保護程度和所有權優勢等五項變數間的關連性與動態影響。
本研究發現,亞洲單一貨幣對於工業生產指數的影響力最強,其次為短期利率、再其次為進口保護程度,對於海外直接投資與所有權優勢的影響力最弱。而影響亞洲單一貨幣的變數以工業生產指數最為顯著,其餘變數則較不明顯。中國的海外直接投資與短期利率,以及柬埔寨的進口保護程度與所有權優勢間有顯著的雙向因果關係存在。
亞洲單一貨幣與印尼、韓國、馬來西亞、寮國、緬甸與柬埔寨六國之海外直接投資相關變數間存在長期共整合關係,反應出長期變動的解釋能力。
實證結果顯示長期經濟變數的收斂效果佳,即各區域經濟變數與亞洲單一貨幣在長期所受的干擾逐漸減少。同時發現印尼、越南、日本及中國對與亞洲單一貨幣的走勢具有深厚影響力。而亞洲單一貨幣對於工業生產指數的影響最強、其次為進口保護程度、海外直接投資、所有權優勢,對於短期利率的影響最弱。
在預測誤差變異數分解的實證結果發現,亞洲單一貨幣長期以短期利率與海外直接投資為較強的解釋變數;印尼對亞洲單一貨幣有較大的影響能力。韓國受亞洲單一貨幣的影響最深遠,其次為日本。
在向量誤差修正模型實證結果發現, ACU 受本身落後一期及落後一期的馬來西亞海外直接投資、馬來西亞短期利率,緬甸落後一、二期的所有權優勢及工業生產指數的影響。
Abstract
Based on the aggressive involvement by ASEAN and countries like Japan, China and Korea, the consensus and the development of the integration of Asian regional economy have grown mature. Recently, Asian Development Bank promotes the combination of Currency Basket and the integration weights of Asian Currency Unit (ACU) in order to accelerate the accomplishment of ACU and makes Asia become one of the biggest economy zones.
This study focused on 9 ASEAN nations which including Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippine, Laos, Viet Nam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Japan, PRC and Korea as sample for the last 13 years. The central rate of ACU was simulated via Exports, GDP per capita and International Reserves for selected nations. We applied Johansen Co-integration Test, VAR model, Stability test and VECM model to analyze the relationship between ACU and other factors such as Industry Production Index, Short-term Interest, Foreign Direct Investment, Manufacturing Imported Ratio and Ownership Specific Advantage and examined dynamic reactions.
This research found that ACU has the most powerful impact on Industry Production Index. The Interest comes second and Manufacturing Imported Ratio to be next. Foreign Direct Investment and Ownership Specific Advantage have the worst influence power. On the other hand, Industry Production Index has great influence to ACU. Other variables have only few effects. There existed bilateral relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Short-term Interest of PRC, as well as Manufacturing Imported Ratio and Ownership Specific Advantage of Cambodia. In addition, this study indicated that long-term co-integration relationship between ACU and related Foreign Direct Investment of Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia in response of the long-term changes.
The empirical results show that a better convergence effect of long term economy variables, revealing that the interference between ACU and regional economic factors is lessen gradually. Moreover, we found that Indonesia, Viet Nam, Japan and PRC have significant impact on ACU which in turn affect Industry Production Index most. The next one is Manufacture Imported Ratio, followed by Foreign Direct Investment and Ownership Specific Advantage. The minor one is Short-term Interest Rate.
In regard to the experiment result on prediction of variance decomposition, we found that Short-term Interest and Foreign Direct Investment can be the explanatory variables for influencing ACU. Interestingly, Indonesia has greatest influence to ACU. In the mean time, we found that ACU has the most powerful influence on Korea and Japan comes next. The empirical results of VECM model showed that ACU is influenced by itself of lag 1, Foreign Direct Investment and Short-term Interest of Malaysia of lag 1 and Industry Production Index and Ownership Specific Advantage of Myanmar of lag 1 and 2.
目錄
第一章 緒 論 - 1 -
第一節 研究動機與目的 - 1 -
第二節 研究目的 - 5 -
第三節 研究大綱 - 5 -
第四節 研究流程 - 7 -
第二章 文獻回顧與探討 - 8 -
第一節 海外直接投資的相關論述 - 8 -
第二節 匯率與海外直接投資的關係 - 14 -
第三節 匯率與貿易的關係 - 18 -
第四節 亞洲貨幣整合的相關研究 - 20 -
第三章 資料選取與研究方法 - 24 -
第一節 ACU 的計算方法 - 24 -
第二節 變數的選取 - 25 -
第三節 單根檢定( Unit Root Test ) - 26 -
第四節 Granger 因果關係檢定 - 28 -
第五節 共整合檢定( Cointegration Test ) - 29 -
第六節 向量自我迴歸模型( Vector Autoregressive Model -VAR ) - 32 -
第七節 VAR 模型之診斷性檢定 - 35 -
第八節 向量誤差修正模型( Vector Error Correction Model - VECM ) - 37 -
第四章 實證分析 - 39 -
第一節 單根檢定 - 39 -
第二節 因果關係檢定 - 45 -
第三節 共整合檢定 - 59 -
第四節 向量自我迴歸模型 - 61 -
第五節 衝擊反應分析 - 74 -
第六節 預測誤差變異數分解 - 78 -
第七節 VAR 模型之診斷性檢測 - 85 -
第八節 向量誤差修正模型 - 91 -
第五章 結論與建議 - 95 -
第一節 實證結果與貢獻 - 95 -
第二節 研究貢獻 - 96 -
第三節 研究限制與建議 - 97 -
參考文獻 - 99 -
中文部份 - 99 -
英文部份 - 101 -
附錄 - 105 -



表目錄
表 1 - 1 東南亞國家協會之沿革 - 4 -
表 2 - 1 匯率與海外直接投資相關文 - 17 -
表 2 - 2 匯率與貿易相關文獻 - 18 -
表 2 - 3 亞洲貨幣整合相關文獻 - 22 -
表 4 - 1 變數ACU 的單根檢定 - 40 -
表 4 - 2 (A) ADF 單根檢定結果彙總表 - 41 -
表 4 - 2 (B) ADF 單根檢定結果彙總表 - 42 -
表 4 - 2 (C) ADF 單根檢定結果彙總表 - 43 -
表 4 - 3 ADF 單根檢定結果分析表 - 44 -
表 4 - 4 因果關係檢定 – 印尼 - 45 -
表 4 - 5 因果關係檢定 – 新加坡 - 46 -
表 4 - 6 因果關係檢定 – 中國 - 47 -
表 4 - 7 因果關係檢定 – 韓國 - 48 -
表 4 - 8 因果關係檢定 – 日本 - 49 -
表 4 - 9 因果關係檢定 – 馬來西亞 - 50 -
表 4 - 10 因果關係檢定 – 泰國 - 51 -
表 4 - 11 因果關係檢定 – 菲律賓 - 52 -
表 4 - 12 因果關係檢定 – 越 南 - 53 -
表 4 - 13 因果關係檢定 – 寮 國 - 54 -
表 4 - 14 因果關係檢定 – 緬 甸 - 55 -
表 4 - 15 因果關係檢定 – 柬埔寨 - 56 -
表 4 - 16 因果檢定分析總表 - 57 -
表 4 - 17 因果檢定分析總 - 58 -
表 4 - 18 共整合檢定彙整表 - 60 -
表 4 - 20 新加坡迴歸估計式係數表 - 64 -
表 4 - 21 日本迴歸估計式係數表 - 64 -
表 4 - 22 中國迴歸估計式係數表 - 65 -
表 4 - 23 韓國迴歸估計式係數表 - 66 -
表 4 - 24 馬來西亞迴歸估計式係數表 - 67 -
表 4 - 25 菲律賓迴歸估計式係數表 - 67 -
表 4 - 26 泰國迴歸估計式係數表 - 68 -
表 4 - 27 越南迴歸估計式係數表 - 69 -
表 4 - 28 寮國迴歸估計式係數表 - 70 -
表 4 - 29 緬甸迴歸估計式係數表 - 70 -
表 4 - 30 柬埔寨迴歸估計式係數表 - 71 -
表 4 - 31 向量自我迴歸模型匯總表 - 72 -
表 4 - 32 衝擊反應分析彙整表 - 76 -
表 4 - 33 預測誤差變異數分解 彙總表 - 82 -
表 4 - 34 穩定性檢定 彙總表 - 86 -
表 4 - 35 殘差項序列相關檢定彙整表 - 88 -
表 4 - 36 殘差項常態檢定彙整表 - 89 -
表 4 - 37 殘差項自我迴歸條件異質變異彙整表 - 90 -
表 4 - 38 韓國 VECM 結果 - 91 -
表 4 - 39 馬來西亞 VECM 結果 - 92 -
表 4 - 40 新加坡 VECM 結果 - 92 -
表 4 - 41 寮國 VECM 結果 - 92 -
表 4 - 42 緬甸 VECM 結果 - 93 -
表 4 - 43 柬埔寨 VECM 結果 - 94 -
表 4 - 44 VECM 彙整表 - 94 -


圖目錄
圖 1 - 1 研究流程 - 7 -
中文部份
1.朱惠娟,民 92 ,不動產抵押貸款債權證券與資本市場關聯性-美國資本市場實證研究,淡江大學財務金融學系碩士在職專班碩士論文。
2.宋明豪,民 92 ,中國大陸之外來投資模式與其經濟影響,台灣大學國家發展研究所碩士論文。
3.余麗珠,民 92 ,匯率決定因素之探討,國立中山大學財務管理研究所碩士在職專班碩士論文。
4.周麗君,民 91 ,國際貿易與匯率波動,逢甲大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。
5.吳青松,民 91 ,國際企業管理-管理與實務。三版,智勝。
6.吳家豪,民 91 ,台灣對外投資、出口及匯率相關性之研究,淡江大學國際貿易系碩士論文。
7.林明旻,民 93 ,實質匯率變動對產出之影響以台灣與南韓為例,成功大學政治經濟研究所碩士論文。
8.林君瀅,民 93 ,匯率波動對台灣出口貿易量之不對稱影響,暨南國際大學經濟學系碩士論文。
9.吳景梅,民 92 ,我國匯率與總體經濟指標關係之實證研究,世新大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
10.表旻燦,民 87 ,對大陸直接投資決定因素研究-以台灣、韓國企業為主,台灣大學國際企業學研究所碩士論文。
11.高長、顏宗大,民 81 ,兩岸經際交流之現況及發展趨勢研究,中華經濟研究院。
12.徐守德、王毓敏、李信達,民 88 ,亞洲地區國際直接投資之決定因素,亞太管理評論,第4 卷第4 期: 369-383 頁。
13.曾鴻鈞,民 92 ,台灣經濟成長、投資、出口交互動態關聯探討,大葉大學國際企業管理學系研究所碩士論文。
14.張淑華、蔡忠佑,民 92 ,金融發展與經濟成長之因果關係-日本、韓國、臺灣之實證研究,國立東華大學經濟系主辦之第四屆全國實證經濟學研討會。
15.張瑜珊,民 93 ,企業大陸投資與融資決策分析,成功大學財務金額研究所碩士論文。
16.張憲霖,民 88 ,台灣貨幣需求函數的動態分析-無限期次共整合向量自我迴歸模型之衝擊反應分析,中山大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。
17.黃家盈,民 93 ,台灣投資中國大陸對內國總體經貿影響之分析,實踐大學貿易經營研究
所碩士論文。
18.黃清雄,民 90 ,台商赴大陸投資與經營成敗之研究,政治大學經營管理碩士所碩士論文。
19.陳忠榮、楊志海,民 88 ,台灣對外投資的決定因素-擴張型與防禦型之比較,經際論文叢刊,第 27 輯第2 期: 215-240 頁。
20.陳若暉、王祝三、林汶玲, 2001 ,亞洲單一貨幣整合其相關經濟指標之決定-橫斷面時間序列混合資料分析,亞太經濟管理評論,第4 卷第2 期:47 -64 頁。
21.陳若暉、謝欣翰, 2004 ,亞洲貨幣單一化與各國貿易之關聯性研究,亞太社會科技學報,第3 卷第2 期: 8 7-117 頁。
22.陳若暉、陳志祥, 2006 ,亞洲單一貨幣最適目標區建構與貨幣政策關聯性研究,創新與管理,第3 卷第1 期: 71-98 頁。
23.陳淑茹,民 90 ,亞洲單一貨幣機制(ACU) 可行性之研究-以亞洲各國總體經濟變數關連性為例,中原大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
24.陳彥豪,民 93 ,亞太地區公債市場關聯性研究,南華大學財務管理研究所碩士論文。
25.陳錦堂,民 88 , 對外直接投資、僑外資與總體經濟之關係,中正大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
26.葉家全,民 92 ,中央銀行之貨幣政策、美元存款利率、美國國庫券利率之因果關係和GARCH 模型檢定,樹德科技大學金融保險研究所碩士論文。
27.廖淑美,民 91 ,經濟開放程度、失業率與外人對台直接投資-總體經濟環境差異性之分析,中原大學國際貿易學系碩士論文。
28.蔡孟純,民 89 ,匯率波動風險對出口量的影響-對不同資料型態的分析,淡江大學國際貿易系碩士論文。
29.劉祥熹、李崇主,民 89 ,台灣地區外資、匯率與股價關聯性之研究- VAR 與VECM 之應用,證券市場發展季刊,第 12 輯第3 期:1 - 40 頁。


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