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研究生:徐啟學
研究生(外文):Chi-Hsueh Hsu
論文名稱:應用實質選擇權於奈米技術移轉價格之研究
論文名稱(外文):Applying Real Option Approach to Investigate the Nano-Technology Transferring Price
指導教授:胡為善胡為善引用關係
指導教授(外文):Hu, John Wei-Shan
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:中原大學
系所名稱:會計研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:會計學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2006
畢業學年度:94
語文別:中文
論文頁數:53
中文關鍵詞:對數轉換二項式技術評價場發射顯示奈米碳管實質選擇權
外文關鍵詞:CNTFED.technology valuationreal optionLTB
相關次數:
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在知識經濟的潮流下,競爭優勢不再是傳統的天然資源或者雄厚資本,而集中於知識與技術。企業的生產要素除了勞力與資金等有形資產外,知識或無形資產也成為重要的生產要素之一。在科技日新月異快速變化、競爭日趨激烈的環境中,企業必須建立持久性之核心競爭力方能維持生存,而保存領先之技術才是維持企業核心競爭力的要點。
奈米技術和產業的成功結合,將會激發二十一世紀的新產業革命。以奈米科技帯動我國傳統産業的技術創新,提升産品附加價值與競爭力,在原有産品市場進行取代並進而創造市場,實為帶動我國產業升級之策略目標。
目前「技術交易市集」亦是許多國家積極倡導的觀念,技術交易的主要目的係將既有之技術透過知識的創造、傳遞、重組、整合、保護及開發等工作予以加值。因此,如何決定技術在技術交易市場中的價值,而將技術予以資產化及價值化,乃是技術商品化過程之成功關鍵因素之一。本研究以對數轉換二項式(LTB)實質選擇權評價模式評估奈米碳管場發射顯示器(CNT-FED)技術的價值。
本研究結果發現:
(1). 在技術價值衡量方面,任何選擇權得出的技術價值(擴展NPV值)均大於傳統NPV值,證明在傳統的淨現值法的假設下,常會忽略將技術投資之「管理彈性」,而且低估程度相當高。
(2). 本研究同時考慮遞延、緊縮及擴張三種選擇權,其中遞延及擴大選擇權加總的價值小於複合選擇權的價值,產生正向的交互作用。其餘組合之個別選擇權加總的價值皆大於複合選擇權的價值,產生負向的交互作用。
(3). 在敏感度分析方面,延遲選擇權對技術價值波動度之敏感度很大,同時緊縮選擇權對計畫價值之變動之影響程度亦很大,顯示技術收益及技術價值波動度對技術價值有顯著影響。
In the era of knowledge economics, the advantages of competition focuses on technology and knowledge instead of placing emphasis on nature resources or capital as the production factors. In other words, the production factors not only include tangible asset (e.g. labor and money) but also consist of intangible asset. Under keen competition of changing technology, enterprises have to sustain the kernel of competitive ability by setting up the leading technology.
Connecting nano-technology with industry causes the newly revolution. In other words, applying the nano-technology to traditional industry in Taiwan enhances the value of of products and enterprise’s competitive ability in order to develop new market and achieve the strategic goal of industry promotion.
In recent years, the “technology transaction market” is a promoting worldwide. The main purpose is to enhance the value of products through knowledge creation, diffusion, recombination, integration, protection and development. Therefore, the method to evaluate the value of technology and set up the appropriate transferring price will be the key successful factor in the process of product commercialization.
This study applies the LTB model of real option to investigate the transferring price of CNT-FED technology. The empirical results are as follows.
(1). In the aspect of the technology valuation, expanded NPV is greater than tranditional NPV which suggests that the managerial flexibility is ignored and the extent of undervaluation is very high by using the traditional method.
(2). This work examines the delay, contract and expand options, and finds the sum of the value delay option and expand option is smaller than the value of compound option which implies that a positive interacting effect between delay option and expand option exists. The value of other combinations of the single options exceeds the value of compound option which suggests that there are negative interacting effects between each other.
(3). Regarding the sensitive analysis, the results indicate the delay option is sensitive to the volatility of technology value and the contract option is very sensitive to the revenue of technology which suggests that the volatility of technology value and technology revenue significantly affect the value of technology.
第壹章 緒論
第一節 研究背景…………………………………………………………… 1
第二節 研究動機…………………………………………………………… 1
第三節 研究目的…………………………………………………………… 2
第四節 研究流程…………………………………………………………… 3
第貳章 文獻探討
第一節 傳統技術評價理論………………………………………………… 5
第二節 實質選擇權理論…………………………………………………… 9
第参章 研究方法
第一節 研究架構…………………………………………………………… 14
第二節 研究模型推演……………………………………………………… 15
第肆章 個案研究
第一節 奈米產業分析……………………………………………………… 22
第二節 個案技術分析……………………………………………………… 25
第三節 個案公司-東元集團背景分析 …………………………………… 29
第四節 資料來源及參數估計……………………………………………… 31
第五節 實質選擇權之類型分析…………………………………………… 34
第伍章 實證結果及分析
第一節 淨現值法結果分析………………………………………………… 36
第二節 實質選擇權法結果分析…………………………………………… 37
第三節 敏感度分析………………………………………………………… 39
第陸章 研究結論及建議
第一節 研究結論…………………………………………………………… 46
第二節 研究限制及建議…………………………………………………… 48
參考文獻
中文部分…………………………………………………………………… 49
英文部分…………………………………………………………………… 51
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4.李元堯(民92 ) ,「21世紀的尖端材料-奈米碳管」, 化工技術, 第11卷第3期, pp 140-159。
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6.李雪鳳(民90),「運用實質選擇權模型投資計畫評估-以高雄捷運為例」,長庚大學企研所碩士論文。
7.吳志堅(民90),「以實質選擇權評估高科技產業的投資計畫-以南亞科技為例」, 國立政治大學財管所碩士論文。
8.何麗卿(民91),「BOT投資之實質選擇權:台灣蘇花段高速公路之研究」, 東吳大學經研所碩士論文。
9.林家帆、陳威光、郭維裕(民91),「高科技產業股票之評價-實質選擇權評價法」, 管理評論,第二十一卷第三期 , pp 97-113。
10.邱雪娥(民90),「BOT專案評價決策支援系統-實質選擇權之應用」,國立台灣科技大學資訊管理系碩士論文。
11.陸佳蓮(民91),「選擇權訂價模型應用於技術及專利評價之研究~以技術移轉權利金為例」, 實踐大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
12.陳秉鈞(民85),「技術評價與技術訂價:方法及模型之探討」,國立中央大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
13.黃登甫(民93),「資產管理公司( AMC)處理不良債權( NPL )方式與其績效之研究-實質選擇權之應用」, 國立中正大學企研所碩士論文。
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15.馬廣仁,「奈米碳管的性質與應用」, 工業材料雜誌, 179期, 90年11月, pp 92-99。
16.葉佳山(民91),「技術評價之研究-以選擇權訂價模型評價鋼鐵產業技術」, 國立交通大學科技管理研究所碩士論文。
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18.蔡信行,奈米科技導論:基本原理及應用,2004,新文京開發
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20.顏錫銘、吳明政(民90),「創業投資公司投資案價值評估-採用多重實質選擇權評價模式」, 科技管理學刊,第六卷第一期, pp 103-130。
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8.Hayes and Abernathy,(1980),“Managing Our Way to Economic Decline”, Harvard Business Review,Vol. 58, pp.66-79.
9.Herath and Park,(2001),“Deciding Which R&D Project to Fund”, Corporate Finance, Vol.5, No.5, pp.33-45.
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11.Holatius,(1995),“Cultural Adjustment in International Technology Transfer”, InternatÍonal Journal Technology Management, Vol.10, pp.676-686.
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