臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

政府在面對經濟問題時，不但會採取貨幣政策，也會採取財政政策以復甦景氣，然而，政府可能在無預警的情況下就直接執行政策，也有可能在執行前先宣告未來將採取某特定政策，或是政府在宣告未來將執行某政策時，並未明確告知貨幣供給量或財政支出水準增加之幅度，將此涉及不確定性。本文旨將Dornbusch（1976）模型由資本完全移動的特殊假設改為更一般化的資本可不完全移動的狀況，並視投資需求為實質利率而非名目利率的函數，從而建立一個涵蓋商品市場、貨幣市場與外匯市場的開放經體系模型，並延續張文雅、溫學華及賴景昌（1994）分別探討實行擴張的貨幣政策或財政政策，在未預料到、預料到以及不確定的情形下，對經濟體系的總體變數：如匯率與物價，將造成何種影響。
經由本論文之研究，可獲得的結論如下：
1、 未預料到的政策擴張：由於匯率可瞬間調整，因此於宣告的時刻會產生跳動，待政策宣告與執行之際，匯率有可能下降也有可能上揚，需視價格效果與利率效果的相對大小，或資本移動程度而定，當資本移動程度相對較大時，貨幣政策將會使匯率出現短期過度調整的現象；而物價為緩慢調整變數，在宣告之際不變，於政策宣告與執行之際，均呈現上揚的走勢。
2、 預料到的政策擴張：由於匯率可瞬間調整，因此於宣告的時刻會產生跳動，待政策實際執行後，有可能下降也有可能上揚，需視價格效果與利率效果的相對大小，或資本移動程度而定；而物價為緩慢調整變數，在宣告之際不變，於政策實際執行後，均呈現上揚的走勢。
3、 不確定的政策擴張：匯率除了於宣告時刻產生跳動外，若政府的政策實際執行的劑量與民眾預測的水準不符，則政策執行時，匯率將會再次出現跳動的情形。

While facing the economic problems, the government adopts not only the monetary policy, but also the fiscal policy to drive the economy up. However, the policy could be unanticipated, anticipated , or uncertain (such as the ambiguous amount of money supply or fiscal spending), that would make the effect of the government policy different. In this thesis, we attempt to amend Dornbusch’s Model (1976), assuming capital mobility is imperfect and the demand of investment is a function of the real interest rate, so we can establish an open economy model including a product market ,a money market and a foreign exchange market .We can explore the change of macro economy when government use the expansion monetary policy or fiscal policy while the government policy is anticipated, unanticipated, or uncertain.
According our research, we can get the conclusions as following:

1. When the government announces and implements simultaneously the expansionary policy , the direction of the exchange rate to adjust will depend on the relative size of price effect to interest rate effect and the degree of capital mobility.If the degree of capital mobility is larger, it is more possible that the exchange rate overshoots in the short run while the expansion monetary policy is adopted . The product price rises gradually to the new equilibrium level after the moment of policy announcement.
2. When the government announces to adopt the expansion policy in the future , the exchange rate jumps instantaneously. Then it may increase or decrease that is determined by the relative size of price effect and the degree of capital mobility.
3. When the government announces to increase the amount of money supply or fiscal spending, but the amount is ambiguous. If the actual amount of money supply or fiscal spending is not the same as people expected, then the exchange rate will jump again while the policy is executed.

摘要 i
Abstract ii
目錄 iii
圖目錄 iv
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與研究目的 1
第二節 文獻回顧 4
第三節 本文架構 5
第二章 理論架構 6
第一節 理論模型 6
第二節 比較靜態 8
第三節 動態性質 9
第三章 貨幣政策 13
第一節 未預料到的貨幣供給量擴增 13
第二節 預料到的貨幣供給量擴增 19
第三節 不確定的貨幣供給量擴增 28
第四章 財政政策 40
第一節 未預料到的政府購買支出擴增 40
第二節 預料到的政府購買支出擴增 46
第三節 不確定的政府購買支出擴增 56
第五章 結論與建議 70
參考文獻 72
註釋 75

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