臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

全球化使得國際間資本、勞動力快速流動及移民成為一個普遍現象。面對這群人口，建立跨國合作之社會保障制度，可確保跨國勞動者及其家庭得到適當的就業及老年生活保障。因此，以一個國際組織或是全球性規範來維護秩序的趨勢逐漸升高(陳芬苓，2002)，希望藉由國際合作，建立較為一致的社會保護政策。故本文試圖驗證，面對全球化的壓力下，各國社會福利支出是否趨於一致，或仍然依本身社會福利制度的特性發展出相異的路徑。
本文以台灣與OECD共計21個國家，1980年至2001年社會福利支出之資料，分別使用橫斷面分析、時間序列單根檢定、共整合檢定及追蹤資料分析，對社會福利支出占GDP比及每人社會福利受益淨額二個指標，進行收斂之實證研究。在橫斷面的研究結果，支持台灣與OECD國家社會福利支出具有絕對收斂與條件收斂，而追蹤資料分析，亦得到相同結果，隱含社會福利支出水準低的國家將以較快的速度收斂至長期均衡。然而在時間序列單根檢定中，僅有少數國家有長期收斂的趨勢。共整合檢定結果，三個福利體制國家僅保守主義國家有整合趨勢，而體制之間仍依本身的福利體制特性發展。另外，台灣社會福利發展的過程一般稱為準組合主義，因此，實證結果顯示台灣社會福利支出水準趨近於保守主義國家。希望藉由本文，能提供當局者在面對全球化下，思考台灣未來社會福利政策的方向。

There are more and more international capital movements, labor force flows and immigration following by the trend of globalization. In the face of such immigration, it is necessary to establish transnational cooperation social security system, which can guarantee transnational labor forces to have jobs and their families receive matching old age social security. Consequently, the trend of making social order by an international organization, such as EU or a global norm rises gradually, which is to develop a consistent society security policy by nations’ cooperation. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate whether the social welfare expenditure of various countries under globalization tends toward consistent, or still different and dependent on its own characteristic of social welfare system.
The study analyzes the social welfare expenditure of Taiwan and the OECD 21counties from 1980 to 2001. By using cross-section, time-series and panel data models to examine the nations’ convergence of two indices, which are the ratio of social welfare expenditure to GDP and social welfare net benefit per head. The empirical results of the cross-section, models support that there are absolute and conditional convergence of the social welfare expenditure in Taiwan and the OECD countries, respectively. The panel data regressions also show the same relation, which implies low social welfare expenditure countries will convergence to long-term equilibrium faster than the high expenditure counties. However, the unit root tests show that only a few countries have tendencies to convergence in the long-run. And cointegration tests indicate that only the conservative country of the three different welfare regimes has the convergence tendency. For social welfare development process of Taiwan is generally called the corporatistism, and the empirical result shows that Taiwan tends toward the conservatism country. The Taiwan government can ponder over the direction of the social welfare policy in the future.

摘要 I
Abstract II
目次 III
表目錄 IV
圖目錄 V
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機與目的 5
第三節 研究限制 6
第二章 文獻回顧 8
第一節 收斂理論 8
第二節 收斂理論之實證應用 10
第三章 研究方法 16
第一節 σ收斂 16
第二節 橫斷面分析 17
第三節 時間序列-單根檢定 18
第四節 時間序列-共整合檢定 22
第五節 追蹤資料 24
第四章 實證結果 27
第一節 資料說明 27
第二節 實證分析 28
一、 σ收斂 28
二、 橫斷面分析 34
三、 時間序列分析 39
四、 追蹤資料分析 46
第五章 結論 53
參考文獻 55

中文部份
王正 (2001)，「價值的選擇：社會福利與政府財政之探討」，社區發展季刊，39，345-370。
古允文 (1997)，「超級福利國家？歐洲聯盟社會政策的發展」，社會政策與社會工作學刊，1，133-160。
行政院經濟建設委員會 (2004)，「聯合國國際遷移趨勢分析報告」，取自http://www.cepd.gov.tw/upload/News/news940523@290321.07917779294@.pdf
吳老德 (2001)，《正義與福利國家概論》，台北：五南。
林萬億 (1994)，《福利國家—歷史比較的分析》，台北：巨流。
林萬億 (1997)，「我國的社會福利支出分析」，主計月報，84(6)，13-19。
陳苓芬 (2002)，「全球化、失業與福利體制的挑戰：以南韓經驗為例」，研究論文發表於台灣社會學會暨文化研究學會年會。台中市：東海大學。
英文部份
Alonso, J., M. A. Galindo and S. S. Rivero (1998), “Convergence in Social Protection Benefits across EU Countries,” Applied Economics Letters, 5, 153-155.
Aubyn, M. S. (1999), “Convergence across Industrialised Countries (1890-1989): New Results Using Time Series Methods,” Empirical Economics, 24, 23-44.
Barro, R. J. (1991), “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 407-444.
Barro, R. J. and X. Sala-i-Martin (1992), “Convergence,” Journal of Political Economy, 100, 223-251.
Barro, R. J. and X. Sala-i-Martin (1995), Economic Growth, New York: Mc GrawHill.
Baumol, W. J. (1986), “Productivity Growth, Convergence and Welfare: What theLong-Run Data Show,” American Economic Review, 76, 1072-1085.
Bernard, A. B. and S. N. Durlauf (1995), “Convergence in International Output,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 97-108.
Bernard, A. B. and S. N. Durlauf (1996), “Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis,” Journal of Econometrics, 71, 161-173.
Bouget, D. (2003), “Convergence in the Social Welfare Systems in Europe:From Goal to Reality,” Social Policy and Administration, 37, 674-693.
Breusch, T. and A. Pagan (1980), “The LM Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics,” Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239-254
Esping-Andersen, G. (1990), The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism, Cambridge: Polity Press.
George, V. and P. Wilding (2002), Globalization and Human Welfare, Basingstoke: Palgrave.
Granger, C.W.J. (1981), “Some Properties of Time Series Data and Their Use in 55 Econometric Model Specification,” Journal of Econometrics, 16, 121-130.
Hausman, J. (1978), “Specification Tests in Econometrics,” Econometrica, 46, 1251-1271
Herce, J. A., S. S. Rivero and J. J. Lucio (2003), “Convergence in Social Protection across EU Countries, 1970-1999,” European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes Working Paper.
Kwiatkowsky, D., P. C. P. Phillips, P. Schmitd and Y. Shin (1992), “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root,” Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-78.
Linden M. (2002), “Trend Model Testing of Growth Convergence in 15 OECD countries, 1946-1997,” Applied Economics, 34, 133-142.
Miller, L. S. and M. Clark (1977), “The Welfare Efforts of the United States: know then thyself,” Journal of Sociology and Social Welfare, 4, 382-400.
Nixon, J (1999), “Convergence Analysis of Health Care Expenditure in the EU Countries Using Two Approaches,” Discussion Papers in Economics, University of York, 1-37.
Oxley, L. and D. Greasley (1995), “A Time-Series Perspective on Convergence:Australia, UK and USA since 1870,” The Economic Record, 71, 259-270
Phillips, P. C. B. and P. Perron (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression,” Biometrika, 75, 335-346.
Püss, T, M. Viies and R. Maldre (2003), “Convergence Analysis in Social Protection Expenditure in the European Union,” unpublishef manuscript, 1-24.
Quah, D. (1993), “Galton’s Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 95, 427-443.
Quah, D. (1996), “Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distributional Dynamics,” Economic Journal, 106, 1045-55.
Sala-i-Martin, X. X. (1996), “The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis,” Economic Journal, 106, 1019-1036.
Sosvilla-Rivero, S., A. J. Herce and J. J. Lucio (2003), “Convergence in Social Protection across EU Countries, 1970-1999,” European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes Working Paper No.18.
Wolf, H. (2002), “Globalization and the Convergence of Social Expenditure in the European Union,” Occasional Paper, GW Center for the Study of Globalization.