臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文利用台灣1965到2003年的季資料探討：消費者行為、所得的累積與利率的波動。由這三要素所構成生命週期/恆常所得假說理論進而探討Campell & Mankiw(1990)的生命週期/恆常所得模型。
本文發現：1997年第一季至1999年第四季的所得係數為負。所以，「台灣自從1980年代以來金融改革的成效，並促使消費者逐漸擺脫地下經濟的借貸行為」。再者，民眾持有信用卡的普及消費行為，解釋社會大眾會隨著金融改革日趨自由化的腳步裡，漸漸產生跨期的替代消費的現象。

Abstrac
This paper use Taiwan’s 1965-2003 quarterly data to discuss three factors: behavior of the consumer, cumulation of the income and the fluctuation of the interest rate. From rational expectation-permanent income hypothesis which is composed of the these three elements , We explore Campell & Mankiw(1990)’s model.

The results was found : the parameter of income is negative from1997 first q to 1999 forth q . So from Taiwan 1980’s finance innovation effects, this make consumers gradually get rid of the underground-economic loaned behavior. Moreover, card-holder’s general consuming behavior explains that the public will produce the phenomenon of intertemporal consumption according to finance innovation liberalization day by day.

目 錄
一、前言…………………………………………………………………………………………….4
二、文獻回顧...……………………………………………………………………………………..5
2-1流動性限制與過度性敏感...………………………………………………………..……16
2-2 PIH的台灣文獻...………………………….……………………………………….….…18
三、模型推導...………………………………………………………………………………..…...19
四、資料處理與實證分析…………………………………………………………………..….…..26
4-1總的非耐久財消費...……………………………………………………..……..…….….28
4-2利率...…………………………………………………………………………………..…29
4-3可支配所得………………………………………………………………………….……30
五、結論……………………………………………………………………………………………39
六、參考文獻………………………………………………………………………………………40
表 目 錄
表3.1 ADF檢定……………………………………………………………………………………36
表3.2平均個人非耐久財消費與所得+銀行實質利率……………………...……………………37
表3.3平均個人非耐久財消費與所得+實質民間利率……………………...……………………38
表3.4台灣省民眾認為民間互助會之安全性………………………………….…………………39
表3.5台灣省家庭最近一次得標會金主要用途…………………..………...……………………40
表3.6台灣省家庭未參加互助會原因…………………………..…………...……………………41
表3.7台灣省家庭負債種類……………………………………………….....……………………41
表3.8信用卡業務統計……………………...…………………………………..…………………42

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