臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文是以Chang and Tsai (2003) 之貨幣模型為藍圖，擴充為含貿易財部門與非貿易財部門的兩部門模型，分別以貨幣政策與財政政策為政策工具，分析這兩種政策對於經濟體系的影響。
在貨幣政策方面，通貨膨脹率指標增加時，當貿易財消費與實質貨幣餘額係互補(替代)的情況下，資本存量是減少(增加)的，亦即實質產出減少(增加)。貶值率增加，只有在貿易財消費與實質貨幣餘額替代的情況，才有可能得到經常帳盈餘的結論。此外，貶值率下降(上升)會使非貿易財相對價格與非貿易財消費呈同方向遞增(遞減)的實證結果，在本文的模型架構下是可以得到驗證的。
在財政政策方面，未預料到恆常性政府支出增加，不論貿易財消費與實質貨幣餘額之間係互補或替代，長期的資本皆呈現累積的現象。而實質利率在調整過程中則有可能高於其原均衡值，亦有可能低於其原均衡值。

The modeling strategy is to extend Chang and Tsai (2003) monetary framework to allow for the two-sector dependent economy with both traded and nontraded consumer goods. The purpose of this paper is to study the effects of monetary policy and financial policy on employment, capital accumulation, consumption, and the term structure of interest rates.
In respect of monetary policy, a permanent unanticipated increase in the inflation rate decrease the capital accumulation in the long run as traded goods and real money balances are Edgeworth complements. Hence, output in the new long-run equilibrium will be lower than before the policy change. As increase in the rate of devaluation in this economy (which translates into a higher inflation rate) will improve the economy’s current account under the situation where traded goods and real balances are Edgeworth substitutes. In addition, it can be shown that real exchange rate gradually appreciates and consumption of nontradables continuously expand. The joint behavior of consumption and the real exchange rate is therefore compatible with the observation of empirical evidence.

In respect of financial policy, a permanent unanticipated increase in government spending will lead to a gradual accumulation of capital, regardless of whether the relationship between traded goods and real balances are Edgeworth complements or substitutes. Moreover, the real interest rate maybe lower or higher than the steady-state value during the adjustment process.

目 錄

第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………………1
第一節 研究動機與目的…………………………………………1
第二節 論文架構…………………………………………………5

第二章 理論模型…………………………………………………6
附圖一、二…………………………………………………………26
附圖三、四…………………………………………………………27
附圖五、六…………………………………………………………28
附圖七………………………………………………………………29

第三章 釘住通貨膨脹指標增加…………………………………30
附圖八……………………………………………………………47
附圖九……………………………………………………………48
附圖十………………………………………………………………49
附圖十一……………………………………………………………50
附圖十二……………………………………………………………51
附圖十三………………………………………………………………52
附圖十四………………………………………………………………53
附圖十五………………………………………………………………54
附圖十六………………………………………………………………55
附圖十七………………………………………………………………56
附圖十八………………………………………………………………57
附圖十九………………………………………………………………58
附圖二十………………………………………………………………59
附圖二十一……………………………………………………………60

第四章 財政政策……………………………………………………61
附圖二十二……………………………………………………………70
附圖二十三……………………………………………………………71
附圖二十四……………………………………………………………72
附圖二十五……………………………………………………………73
附圖二十六……………………………………………………………74
附圖二十七……………………………………………………………75
第五章 結論與展望…………………………………………………76

附錄A……………………………………………………………………78
附錄B……………………………………………………………………79
附錄C……………………………………………………………………80
附錄D……………………………………………………………………81
附錄E……………………………………………………………………82
附錄F……………………………………………………………………84
附錄G……………………………………………………………………85
附錄H……………………………………………………………………86
附錄I……………………………………………………………………87
參考文獻………………………………………………………………88

參考文獻
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