臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

論文摘要

　　本文係以Stockman (1981)的模型為基礎，修正既存文獻假設人口成長率為外生給定之缺失，建立一個生育率或人口成長率內生決定之最適控制貨幣成長模型，重新檢視只有消費受到交易付現限制時，政府提高貨幣成長率對整體經濟體系相關經濟變數之影響，以及政府該如何決定最適之貨幣成長率。經由本文的分析，我們的發現，在外生成長模型中，政府提高貨幣成長率，於長期均衡時會使得每人資本以及每人消費下降，這與Stockman (1981)的「只有消費受到交易付現限制時，貨幣具有超中立性」結論迥然相異。同時，政府在追求社會福利極大下，其最佳的政策係「貨幣成長率不等於負的時間偏好率且名目利率亦不等於零」，這也與Bailey (1956)以及Friedman (1969，1971)的最適貨幣數量結論相左。在內生成長模型中，預料到的貨幣成長率提高，會使得長期之每人產出、每人消費及每人資本成長率下降，而對生育率則有正向之影響。而在短期調整過程中，資本成長率依消費-資本比對資本成長率的直接效果與間接效果孰大孰小而呈現出饒富變化的調整時徑；生育率則是依起始生育率的相對大小而呈現兩種不同的調整時徑。

　　根據以上的結論得知，不論是外生成長模型或內生成長模型，在考量生育率內生化後，即使只有消費受到交易付現限制，政府的貨幣政策依然可以影響到經濟體系的實質變數，因此貨幣超中立性之結論不具備頑強性。

第一章 緒論………………………………………………………………….. 1
第一節 研究動機與文獻回顧…………………………………………….. 1
第二節 論文架構………………………………………………………….. 4

第二章 理論模型…………………………………………………………….. 5
第一節 代表性個人的決策行為………………………………………….. 5
第二節 政府決策行為與完全預知總體均衡最適條件………………….. 8

第三章 長期均衡與最適貨幣成長………………………………….. 10
第ㄧ節 長期均衡分析………………………………………………... 10
第二節 最適貨幣成長率…………………………………………………. 15

第四章 內生成長……………………………………………………………. 19
第一節 模型架構…………………………………………………………. 19
第二節 長期均衡成長與動態特質………………………………………. 20
第三節 貨幣政策的宣告效果和動態傳遞過程…………………………. 25
附表一……………………………………………………………………………. 36
附圖………………………………………………………………………………. 37

第五章 結論…………………………………………………………………. 44

附錄一 ………………………………………………………………………. 45
附錄二 ………………………………………………………………………. 47
附錄三 ………………………………………………………………………. 49
附錄四 ………………………………………………………………………. 52
附錄五 ………………………………………………………………………. 53
附錄六 ………………………………………………………………………. 55
參考文獻 ………………………………………………………………………. 57

一、中文部份：
陳師孟 (1990)《總體經濟演義》。台北：華泰書局。
賴景昌 (1994)《國際金融-進階篇》。台北：茂昌書局。
張文雅《貨幣理論》。課堂講義。

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