論文題目：地理資訊系統為基之防救災管理支援系統之研究─以高雄市政府為例
校（院）系所組別：輔仁大學資訊管理學系碩士在職專班
研 究 生：林美鳳 指導教授：李俊民 論文頁數：130
關 鍵 詞：預測模擬、災害潛勢區、地理資訊系統、防救災整備
論文提要內容：
臺灣地處西太平洋颱風及環太平洋地震帶，常有導致重大災情的天然災害，如颱風、豪雨、土石流、坡地崩塌、地震及乾旱等。這些災害所造成的人命傷亡、財產損失，常是社會的關注與媒體的焦點。尤其每年到達豪雨及颱風的季節，短時間內的大量降雨，往往形成洪水災害並造成重大的損失。
本研究的主要目的係針對政府在各地區災害應變中心，進行災前災害危險區域之評估，提供決策者或管理者，快速尋找防救災解決問題的方法，整合預測模擬、情境分析及資源配置等，建立一套防救災管理支援系統，以協助決策者或管理者能夠進行災前整備階段的資源配置，防範於未然，而能提高救災防治之績效。
本研究使用多種不同來源的資料及演進雛型法來建立資料倉儲系統，而地理資訊系統(geographic information system, GIS)的展現能夠顯示災前災害預警信號之空間位置，以提供決策者即時的災前預測機制。透過災前資源配置模式及Lingo 9.0軟體的求解，雛型系統能夠提升目前防救災整備工作之效益。因此防救災管理支援系統的建立，可以有效控管及掌握災害風險，以降低其損失。另外，在資源分配及指派時，針對不同情境及腳本的管理分析，決策者可以有更多的參考資訊及指導原則。

A Study of GIS-based Management Support Systems for Defending and Providing Disaster Relief─ an Example from Government of Kaohsjung City

Keywords: predict simulation, calamity sneaks the tendency area, geographic information system, defend and provide disaster relief and reorganize and outfit

Owing to locating in typhoon and earthquake zone of West Pacific Ocean, there often exist some natural calamities such as typhoon, torrential rain, soil stone flowing, collapsing, earthquake and drought of hillside fields, etc. in Taiwan. Such calamities incur human life injuries and property loss, and often become a focus of media and the society. Especially, during the seasons of the torrential rain and typhoon every year, a large amount of rainfall in a short time often forms flood calamity and then causes a great of losses.
The main purpose of this study is to build a prototype of management support system (MSS) for defending and providing disaster relief, such that a local government can set up an emergency centre for evaluating several dangerous areas before the calamity, finding a fast solution for decision makers for allocating resources, forecasting calamity, integrating and analyzing different scenario, etc. and then the system can support administrator to reorganize and outfit the resource distribution before incurring the calamity, take precautions against destructions, and finally enhance the performance of curing disaster relief.
Various different data sources and evolutionary prototyping method are used in this study for building a data warehouse, and the display of geographic information system (GIS) can show several spatial positions of the early-warning signal of the real-time calamity forecasting mechanism for decision makers. After the suggested resource allocation model is solved by famous software Lingo 9.0, the prototype system can enhance the current effectiveness of defending the relief of calamity. Hence, the mentioned MSS can effectively monitor and control the risk of calamity, and then decrease its loss. Further, as resources are assigned and distributed for managerial analyses of different situations and scenarios, decision makers can own more information and guidelines for future applications.

第 壹 章 緒論··········································1
第 一 節 研究動機·····································1
第 二 節 研究目的·····································2
第 三 節 研究範圍·····································3
第 四 節 論文架構·····································4
第 貳 章 文獻探討······································5
第 一 節 防災管理與運作體系···························5
第 二 節 災害潛勢資料相關文獻·························11
第 三 節 決策支援系統·································14
第 四 節 資料倉儲·····································22
第 五 節 AHP分析層級程序法····························27
第 六 節 多目標規劃···································33
第 七 節 整數規劃·····································35
第 八 節 地理資訊系統·································36
第 參 章 研究方法······································45
第 一 節 研究步驟·····································45
第 二 節 研究架構·····································48
第 三 節 研究設計·····································49
第 四 節 使用工具·····································60
第 肆 章 系統決策模式··································63
第 一 節 時間序列分析·······························63
第 二 節 災害危害指標權重分析·······················80
第 三 節 災害危險區域評估分析·······················80
第 四 節 多目標防救災資源配置決策模式···············83
第 伍 章 防救災管理支援系統雛型建立與分析··············91
第 一 節 系統架構···································91
第 二 節 系統雛型···································94
第 三 節 管理分析··································107
第 陸 章 結論與建議····································123
第 一 節 結論······································123
第 二 節 建議與未來研究方向························124
參考文獻················································127

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