臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

論文題目：地理資訊系統為基之防救災管理支援系統之研究─以高雄市政府為例
校（院）系所組別：輔仁大學資訊管理學系碩士在職專班
研 究 生：林美鳳 指導教授：李俊民 論文頁數：130
關 鍵 詞：預測模擬、災害潛勢區、地理資訊系統、防救災整備
論文提要內容：
臺灣地處西太平洋颱風及環太平洋地震帶，常有導致重大災情的天然災害，如颱風、豪雨、土石流、坡地崩塌、地震及乾旱等。這些災害所造成的人命傷亡、財產損失，常是社會的關注與媒體的焦點。尤其每年到達豪雨及颱風的季節，短時間內的大量降雨，往往形成洪水災害並造成重大的損失。
本研究的主要目的係針對政府在各地區災害應變中心，進行災前災害危險區域之評估，提供決策者或管理者，快速尋找防救災解決問題的方法，整合預測模擬、情境分析及資源配置等，建立一套防救災管理支援系統，以協助決策者或管理者能夠進行災前整備階段的資源配置，防範於未然，而能提高救災防治之績效。
本研究使用多種不同來源的資料及演進雛型法來建立資料倉儲系統，而地理資訊系統(geographic information system, GIS)的展現能夠顯示災前災害預警信號之空間位置，以提供決策者即時的災前預測機制。透過災前資源配置模式及Lingo 9.0軟體的求解，雛型系統能夠提升目前防救災整備工作之效益。因此防救災管理支援系統的建立，可以有效控管及掌握災害風險，以降低其損失。另外，在資源分配及指派時，針對不同情境及腳本的管理分析，決策者可以有更多的參考資訊及指導原則。

A Study of GIS-based Management Support Systems for Defending and Providing Disaster Relief─ an Example from Government of Kaohsjung City

Keywords: predict simulation, calamity sneaks the tendency area, geographic information system, defend and provide disaster relief and reorganize and outfit

Owing to locating in typhoon and earthquake zone of West Pacific Ocean, there often exist some natural calamities such as typhoon, torrential rain, soil stone flowing, collapsing, earthquake and drought of hillside fields, etc. in Taiwan. Such calamities incur human life injuries and property loss, and often become a focus of media and the society. Especially, during the seasons of the torrential rain and typhoon every year, a large amount of rainfall in a short time often forms flood calamity and then causes a great of losses.
The main purpose of this study is to build a prototype of management support system (MSS) for defending and providing disaster relief, such that a local government can set up an emergency centre for evaluating several dangerous areas before the calamity, finding a fast solution for decision makers for allocating resources, forecasting calamity, integrating and analyzing different scenario, etc. and then the system can support administrator to reorganize and outfit the resource distribution before incurring the calamity, take precautions against destructions, and finally enhance the performance of curing disaster relief.
Various different data sources and evolutionary prototyping method are used in this study for building a data warehouse, and the display of geographic information system (GIS) can show several spatial positions of the early-warning signal of the real-time calamity forecasting mechanism for decision makers. After the suggested resource allocation model is solved by famous software Lingo 9.0, the prototype system can enhance the current effectiveness of defending the relief of calamity. Hence, the mentioned MSS can effectively monitor and control the risk of calamity, and then decrease its loss. Further, as resources are assigned and distributed for managerial analyses of different situations and scenarios, decision makers can own more information and guidelines for future applications.

第 壹 章 緒論··········································1
第 一 節 研究動機·····································1
第 二 節 研究目的·····································2
第 三 節 研究範圍·····································3
第 四 節 論文架構·····································4
第 貳 章 文獻探討······································5
第 一 節 防災管理與運作體系···························5
第 二 節 災害潛勢資料相關文獻·························11
第 三 節 決策支援系統·································14
第 四 節 資料倉儲·····································22
第 五 節 AHP分析層級程序法····························27
第 六 節 多目標規劃···································33
第 七 節 整數規劃·····································35
第 八 節 地理資訊系統·································36
第 參 章 研究方法······································45
第 一 節 研究步驟·····································45
第 二 節 研究架構·····································48
第 三 節 研究設計·····································49
第 四 節 使用工具·····································60
第 肆 章 系統決策模式··································63
第 一 節 時間序列分析·······························63
第 二 節 災害危害指標權重分析·······················80
第 三 節 災害危險區域評估分析·······················80
第 四 節 多目標防救災資源配置決策模式···············83
第 伍 章 防救災管理支援系統雛型建立與分析··············91
第 一 節 系統架構···································91
第 二 節 系統雛型···································94
第 三 節 管理分析··································107
第 陸 章 結論與建議····································123
第 一 節 結論······································123
第 二 節 建議與未來研究方向························124
參考文獻················································127

1.王存國、季延平、范懿文，決策支援系統，台北：三民書局，1996。
2.方盈，精通SQL Server 7.0資料庫系統，台北：博碩文化股份有限公司，2001。
3.李俊民譯，Efraim Turban & Jaye Aronson著，決策支援系統，台北：華泰文化事業股份有限公司，2003。
4.李光敦等，淹水模式基本數值地理資訊系統之建立，防災國家型科技計畫辦公室，NAPHM 89-P01，2000。
5.朱慧德、周卓定，以遠端資料挖掘建構虛擬資料倉儲，中華管理評論，第3卷，第2期，2000，頁69-81。
6.東京都第預防災計劃─風水害等編，東京都防災會議，1996。
7.施邦築、李有豐、謝正倫，我國防災體系之檢討與建議，第二屆全國防災學術研討會，內政部消防署與國立台北科技大學，1998/05/01，頁75-90。
8.高雄市政府，高雄市水災危險潛勢地區保全計畫，2006/02。
9.陳崇岳，基隆河水患消防機關搶救之研究-以臺北市搶救納莉風災為例，中央警察大學消防科學研究所碩士論文，2002。
10.陳亮全、鄧慰先、許銘熙、賴美如，臺灣地區淹水潛勢圖之運用方向，臺灣水利，第48卷，第4期，2000/12。
11.許銘熙，李清勝、林美聆、陳亮全、孫志鴻、何興亞、謝龍生、陳天健、丑倫彰、蕭翰文、鄧慰先、李明旭、賴美如、翁進登，象神颱風災害綜合評估檢討報告，防災國家型科技計畫辦公室，台北市，2001/03。
12.許銘熙，鄧慰先，徐培玠，台北市都會區淹水區域之研究（一），行政院國家科學委員會研究報告，國立台灣大學農業工程學研究所，台北市，1998/08。
13.許銘熙，張倉榮，鄧慰先，黃成甲，葉森海，台北縣市淹水潛勢資料，防災國家型科技計畫辦公室，NAPHM HP004，1999。
14.許銘熙，張倉榮，鄧慰先，黃成甲，葉森海，台南縣市淹水潛勢資料，防災國家型科技計畫辦公室，報告編號第HP-0002號，台北市，1999/07。
15.許銘熙，張倉榮，鄧慰先，黃成甲，葉森海，台北縣市淹水潛勢資料，防災國家型科技計畫辦公室研究報告第88-23號，行政院國家科學委員會，台北市，1999/05。
16.許銘熙、楊錦釧、鄧慰先、黃成甲，嘉義地區流域逕流及淹水模式之研究（三），國立臺灣大學水工試驗所研究報告第202號，台北市，1995/06。
17.張哲豪、施邦築、陳崇賢，應用無線通訊於防災通訊網中傳遞數據資訊之探討，第四屆全國防災學術研討會，內政部消防署與國立警察大學，2000/05。
18.解鴻年，林文欽，都市防災規劃有關增修洪災防救應變救援空間系統補強，內政部建築研究所，2002/10。
19.詹士樑，鄧慰先，應用區位分派模式探討都市型水災避難系統規劃之研究，內政部建築研究所，2002/10月。
20.熊光華，防救災體系與資訊，八十八年度防災專案計畫成果研討會論文集第三冊，防災國家型科技計畫辦公室與國家地震工程研究中心，行政院國家科學委員會，2000/01。
21.臺北市山坡地管理體系調整及法令檢討之研究，逢甲大學地理資訊系統研究中心，2002/01。
22.颱風百問，交通部中央氣象局，P27，P36，2000/10。
23.鄧慰先、許銘熙、葉森海等，淹水災害境況模擬工作之現況與展望，工程，第75卷，第4期，2002/08。
24.薩支平，淹水潛勢資料在土地使用規劃與管理之應用研究，內政部建築研究所，2000。
25.內政部消防署網站http://www.nfa.gov.tw/index_c.html
26.國立中興大學網站http://www.nchu.edu.tw
27.Anthony, R.N., Planning & Control Systems, A Framework for Analysis, Cambridge, M.A., Harvard University Graduate School of Business, 1965.
28.Gorry, G.M. & Morton, M.S., A Framework for Management Information Systems., Sloan Management Review, (13), 1971, pp.55-70.
29.Gray, P., & Watson, H.J., Decision Support in the Data Warehouse, Upper Saddle River, NJ:Prentice-Hall,1998.
30.Huber, et al., Storm Water Management Model:User’s Manual Ver.IV, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Virginia, 1984.
31.Hsu, M.H., Teng, W.H. & Wu, F.C., Inundation Modelsfor the Pa-chang Creek Basin in Taiwan, Proc. National Science Council ROC（A）, Vol.22, No.2, pp.279-289, 1998.
32.Pearson Prontice Hail, Statistics for Business and Economics, Pearson Education Inc., 2005.
33.Sprague, R.H., & Waston, H.J., Decision Support Systems, 4th ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ:Prentice-Hall,1996.
34.Scott Morton, M.S., Management Decision System:Computer Based Support for Decision Making, Cambridge MA：Division of Research, Harvard University, 1971.
35.Theodoratos D., & T. Sellis, Designing data warehouses, Data & Knowledge Engineering, Vol. 31, 1999, pp.279-301.
36.Turban, E. & Aronson, J.E., Decision Support System & Intelligent
Systems, Prentic-Hall, Inc., 2003.
37.The Hydrologic Engineering Center, HEC-1 Flood HydrographPackage, US Army Corps of Engineers，Water Resources Support Center, Davis, California, 1992.
38.U.S. Government. 1991. The Flood Insurance, Mitigation, and Erosion
Management Act of 1991. Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.
39.Whitten, J.L. & L.B. Bentley, Systems Analysis and Design Methods, 4th ed. Burr Ridge, IL:Irwin, 1997.