臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

全球經貿的瞬息萬變，攸關航運市場租金與運費發展之動向。海上運輸以散裝貨物運輸為最大宗，而散裝運輸對台灣的經濟扮演著舉足輕重之角色，且散裝航運市場運價波動具有高度之不確定性，故引發本研究針對影響散裝運輸波羅地海乾散貨運價指數波動因素之探討。由於影響散裝運輸運價指數(BDI)變動的因素眾多，而過去相關預測方法較著重於船型大小與運費相關之預測，缺乏對散裝運輸運價總體面之分析，本文利用模糊分段迴歸(Fuzzy Piecewise Regression)與自動偵測轉折點(Automatic Change-Point Detection)進行預測，以構建散裝運輸BDI之預測模式，掌握未來市場運價與租金的發展趨勢，並以實例進行應用分析，研究結果顯示影響波羅地海運價指數變動的重要因素為利率、油價、二手船價格之Capesize船型、二手船價格之Panamax船型、新造船價格之Panamax船型、論時傭船之Capesize船型、論程傭船穀物運費、論程傭船煤礦運費。其中以二手船價格之Capesize船型與新造船價格之Panamax船型為影響BDI波動最為重要之因素。藉上述之影響因素投入預測模式中，可得知即時的散裝運輸BDI指數，可以此提供散裝航運業者作為傭船決策考量之依據。

The global economic and trade is changing rapidly, which influence the freight at the shipping market. The bulk shipping takes the most part of shipping business in Taiwan. There are many factors influence the freight of bulk shipping, thus, the uncertainty is high, which attract researchers to study the fluctuate factors of the Baltic Dry Index. There are numerous factors influence the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), however, based on the related literature review, there are lack of related research. Besides, most of them short of overall analysis of the Baltic Dry Index. This research, therefore, tries to use four major influence factors which intriduct by Gray. The forecasting model mostly uses the tradition regression in this field, but it is unable to deal with outliers. This research utilizes the fuzzy piecewise regression analysis with automatic change-point detection to forecast Baltic Dry Index, to build the freight and rent development trends of the shipping market.
The result of this study shows that the major factors influence Baltic Dry Index are the Oil price, second hand price of the Capesize ship, second hand price of the Panamax ship, new building price of the Panamax ship, the rent of time charter for Capesize, the rent of voyage charter for grain, and the rent of voyage charter for coal. Among these factors, the second hand price of the Capesize ship and new building price of the Panamax ship are the most important impact factor of the Baltic Dry Index. By using above-mentioned impact forecasting model, the instant Baltic Dry Index can be obtained, which provide the bulk operators a clear picture when considering the rent of the ship.

致 謝..............................................................................................................Ⅰ
中 文 摘 要....................................................................................................Ⅱ
英 文 摘 要....................................................................................................Ⅲ
目 錄..............................................................................................................Ⅳ
圖 目 錄..........................................................................................................Ⅶ
表 目 錄..........................................................................................................Ⅷ
第一章 緒論
1.1 研究背景與動機.................................................................................1
1.2 研究目的.............................................................................................2
1.3 研究範圍與限制.................................................................................3
1.4 研究架構.............................................................................................4
1.5 研究內容與方法.................................................................................4
1.6 研究流程.............................................................................................5
第二章 文獻回顧與評析
2.1 海運運價相關文獻.............................................................................7
2.1.1波羅地海運價指數...................................................................7
2.1.2運價指數影響因素...................................................................8
2.2 預測方法相關文獻............................................................................12
2.3 綜合評析............................................................................................15
2.3.1影響因素之綜整與評析..........................................................15
2.3.2預測方法之綜整與評析..........................................................19

第三章 散裝航運BDI發展與現況分析
3.1散裝航運市場之概況.........................................................................21
3.2 BDI發展歷程.....................................................................................22
3.2.1 BDI發展歷程圖......................................................................22
3.2.2 BDI發展之重要歷程..............................................................23
3.3 BDI計算公式.....................................................................................31
3.4 BDI之現況分析.................................................................................32
第四章 研究方法
4.1模糊理論............................................................................................34
4.2模糊分段迴歸....................................................................................36
4.2.1 模糊分段迴歸—可能性迴歸分析........................................36
4.2.2 模糊分段迴歸—必然性迴歸分析........................................37
4.3偵測改變點之模糊分段迴歸分析....................................................40
4.4多變量分段線性迴歸於必然性之問題............................................43
4.5自動偵測改變點之可能性分析........................................................43
4.6自動偵測改變點之必然性分析........................................................46
4.7本章小結............................................................................................48






第五章 實例應用分析
5.1數據資料之分析................................................................................49
5.2模糊分段迴歸之可能性模式分析....................................................65
5.2.1實例說明...................................................................................65
5.2.2模糊分段迴歸之研究設計.......................................................65
5.2.3模糊分段迴歸可能性模式之預測結果...................................67
5.2.4綜合討論與分析.......................................................................72
5.3模糊分段迴歸之必然性模式分析....................................................73
5.3.1模糊分段迴歸必然性模式之預測結果...................................74
5.3.2綜合討論與分析.......................................................................74
5.4本章小結............................................................................................75
第六章 結論與建議
6.1結論...................................................................................................76
6.2建議...................................................................................................78

參考文獻.......................................................................................79

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