臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

依據93年行政院公平交易委員會針對國內直銷事業所進行的調查，營業額最高之16家直銷事業其營業額高達413.65億元，占營業總額6成以上，顯示直銷事業之間的營業規模差距甚大。如何在競爭激烈的巿場中保有其競爭力，將成為每間企業經營管理者一項重要的課題。
由於直銷業之顧客兼具員工之雙重身份。因此，本研究主要針對顧客價值進行預測分析，並納入人際關係變數加以探討。以直銷業作為此模式之驗證對象，透過層級程序分析法發展一套顧客價值評分表，並依據每位顧客期初的評估分數與真實的交易紀錄作為二階段篩選之標準，接著以迴歸分析法與貝氏分類法預測顧客價值。並根據顧客價值的預測結果，比較本研究所提出之二種預測模式。以期能夠精確的評估出顧客的價值，找出真正具有價值的顧客群，提供企業經營管理者培養人才與擬定相關競爭策略之重要依據。
本研究透過所選取之個案公司資料庫中之顧客資料，進行實證分析研究結論整理如下：
一、經由個案公司資料庫顧客資料發現，目標顧客將會受到銷售的產品所影響。
二、本研究所發展的顧客價值評分表，適用於直銷業用以預測顧客價值。
三、證實透過迴歸分析法與貝氏分類法，確實能為企業用以預測顧客價值。
四、透過相對成敗的觀念進行分析，以貝氏分類法的勝算較大，表示此兩種方法
之中以貝氏分類法的預測較準確。

According to the investigation of the domestic direct marketing business by fair trade commission, executive yuan, R.O.C. at 2004, the highest business volume of the top 16 direct marketing enterprises which are 41.365 billion dollars overall. The volume is more than 60%. It shows that there is a great difference between the scales of the direct marketing enterprise. Thus, the important managerial objective of the business is to increase their competitiveness on the market.
Because the employees of the direct marketing business are also a customer, this study focuses on estimating and analyzing the customer valuation. Also, add the relationship as a variable, and this model use the Hierarchy Analytic Process to develop a customer valuation score table. And this model uses the actual trade data and the first score of the customer as two stage sifting standard. Finally, use the Regression analysis and the Naïve Bayesian Classification to estimate the customer valuation. This research use the estimated results by the two models to find the customer valuation. In the managerial implication, the strategy to find the valuable customer can provide the marketing insight to the manager.

中文摘要 ------------------------------------------------------- i
英文摘要 ------------------------------------------------------- iii
誌謝 ------------------------------------------------------- v
目錄 ------------------------------------------------------- vi
表目錄 ------------------------------------------------------ viii
圖目錄 ------------------------------------------------------- x
一、 緒論---------------------------------------------------- 1
1.1 研究背景與動機----------------------------------- 1
1.2 研究目的---------------------------------------- 2
1.3 研究流程---------------------------------------- 3
二、 文獻回顧------------------------------------------------ 4
2.1 顧客關係管理-------------------------------------------- 5
2.2 關係行銷與資料庫行銷------------------------------------- 10
2.3 顧客價值分析指標----------------------------------------- 20
2.4 關係---------------------------------------------------- 25
三、 研究方法------------------------------------------------ 44
3.1 研究架構------------------------------------------------ 44
3.2 研究變數之操作定義--------------------------------------- 47
3.3 研究設計與問卷說明--------------------------------------- 48
3.4 抽樣對象及方法------------------------------------------- 50
3.5 資料分析方法及工具---------------------------------------- 51
四、 實證分析------------------------------------------------ 57
4.1 層級程序分析法------------------------------------------- 57
4.2 敘述性統計分析------------------------------------------- 71
4.3 相關分析------------------------------------------------ 73
4.4 迴歸分析------------------------------------------------ 74
4.5 貝分類法分析--------------------------------------------- 78
4.6 實證結果分析--------------------------------------------- 83
五、 結論與建議----------------------------------------------- 87
5.1 研究結論------------------------------------------------ 87
5.2 管理意涵與建議------------------------------------------- 89
5.3 研究貢獻------------------------------------------------ 91
5.4 研究限制------------------------------------------------ 92
5.5 後續研究建議--------------------------------------------- 93
參考文獻------------------------------------------------ 95
附錄一 衡量顧客的重要構面第一階段問卷----------------------------- 104
附錄二 衡量顧客的重要構面第二階段問卷----------------------------- 109
附錄三 RFM的權重第一階段問卷------------------------------------ 114
附錄四 RFM的權重第二階段問卷------------------------------------ 116
附錄五 職業偏好測試量表問卷------------------------------------- 118

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三、網站部份
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