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研究生:崔進揆
論文名稱:冷戰後強制外交在國際衝突的運用
指導教授:李明李明引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:外交研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:國際事務學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2006
畢業學年度:94
語文別:中文
論文頁數:175
中文關鍵詞:強制外交壓制危機管理後冷戰時期區域衝突人道干涉反恐行動
外文關鍵詞:coercive diplomacycompellencecrisis managementpost-Cold War eraregional conflictshumanitarian interventioncounterterrorism
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強制外交(coercive diplomacy)的概念在一九七0年代由學者Alexander L. George首度提出,主張強制外交應屬於防守型的危機管理(defensive crisis management),亦有別於一般所謂的嚇阻(deterrence)與壓制(compellence)等策略。施行強制外交時,相關決策者透過威脅使用武力,或使用有限度的武力,以勸說對手停止或放棄現正從事的行動,並防止危機情勢的升高,及避免戰爭的發生。冷戰期間,美、蘇兩國的領導人對於該一策略的運用極為廣泛與普遍,甘迺迪政府對於古巴飛彈危機的處理便是著名的案例。冷戰結束,國際關係進入所謂的後冷戰時期,面對區域衝突、人道危機和恐怖主義威脅等問題,強制外交更常被相關決策者和國際組織所施行、採用,亦多次在國際間重大的衝突與危機處理過程中扮演著關鍵的角色,並展現其重要性和多元化的一面。因此,鑑於強制外交對於後冷戰時期之國際危機處理和衝突解決的重要性和必要性,本研究旨在透過強制外交相關理論的介紹與整理,以及後冷戰時期強制外交相關個案的研究分析,總結歷史的經驗與教訓,深入探討其施行現況與成效,並提出具體之研究發現與政策建議。期盼所得之研究成果能使吾人對於該策略有更深一層的認識與了解。

關鍵詞:強制外交、壓制、危機管理、後冷戰時期、區域衝突、人道干涉、反恐行動
In the 1970s, Alexander L. George first introduced and defined the concept of coercive diplomacy. According to George, he claims that coercive diplomacy is a strategy of defensive crisis management. Besides, coercive diplomacy is also different from the strategy of deterrence or compellence. When policymakers and political elites decide to manipulate coercive diplomacy, they should employ threats and / or limited force to persuade opponents to call off or undo adverse actions, which are thought aggressive. Furthermore, the purpose of using coercive diplomacy is to prevent crisis situation from escalating or causing wars.
During the Cold War era, leaders of United States and Soviet Union used this strategy intensively. The Cuban missile crisis in 1962 can also be thought as a famous case of successful coercive diplomacy. When international relations enters into the post-Cold War era, coercive diplomacy still plays as important role in crisis management and conflict resolution. Policymakers of countries and international organizations, like the United Nations and the NATO, prefer to use coercive diplomacy to deal with regional conflicts, humanitarian intervention, and counterterrorism. Coercive diplomacy also demonstrates its necessity and significance of solving these problems.
In order to give us a comprehensive understanding of coercive diplomacy, this thesis focuses on theories of coercive diplomacy and case studies, especially the experiences after the Cold War. Then, in final chapter of this thesis, the author generalizes lessons and experiences come from the cases analyzed and studied. In addition, the author also tries to make conclusions about the efficacy of coercive diplomacy and thus tries to offer some guidelines for policymakers.

Keywords: coercive diplomacy, compellence, crisis management, post-Cold War era, regional conflicts, humanitarian intervention, counterterrorism
第壹章 論緒……………………………………………………1
第一節 研究動機……………………………………………1
第二節 研究目的……………………………………………3
第三節 研究問題……………………………………………3
第四節 文獻回顧……………………………………………4
第五節 研究方法……………………………………………10
第六節 研究範圍……………………………………………11
第七節 章節安排……………………………………………12

第貳章 強制外交的理論基礎…………………………………15
第一節 強制外交的概念與意涵……………………………15
第二節 強制外交、預防外交、嚇阻與壓制………………24
第三節 強制外交的施行要點………………………………32
第四節 後冷戰時期的強制外交……………………………38

第參章 強制外交與區域衝突…………………………………43
第一節 一九九三、一九九四年北韓核武危機……………44
第二節 一九九五、一九九六年台海危機…………………59

第肆章 強制外交與人道干涉…………………………………74
第一節 海地危機……………………………………………75
第二節 索馬利亞危機………………………………………83
第三節 科索沃危機…………………………………………94

第伍章 強制外交與反恐行動…………………………………104
第一節 九一一事件前美國的反恐行動……………………105
第二節 九一一事件後美國的反恐戰爭—阿富汗戰爭……121

第陸章 結論……………………………………………………133
第一節 研究發現……………………………………………133
第二節 政策建議……………………………………………152
第三節 總結…………………………………………………155

參考書目 ………………………………………………………158
中文部分 ……………………………………………………158
西文部份 ……………………………………………………160

表圖目次
表 1-1 壓阻、嚇阻、強制外交的相異之處 ………………7
表 1-2 Alexander L. George及William Simons
對強制外交理想情境之分析 ………………………10
表 2-1 強制外交之主要類型、施行目的和難易程度 ……18
表 2-2 預防外交與強制外交的特色與異同 ………………26
表 2-3 強制外交、嚇阻、壓制的特色與異同 ……………31
表 3-1 中共在一九九五、一九九六年台海危機
中的戰略目標 ………………………………………63
表 6-1 後冷戰時期強制外交相關個案總整理 ……………133

圖 2-1 壓制、嚇阻、勒索、強制外交示意圖 ………………19
圖 2-2 預防外交與各項策略在衝突過程中之示意圖……… 27
圖 2-3 壓制過程示意圖 ………………………………………30
一、中文部分
1.專書
丘宏達,《現代國際法參考文件》。台北,三民書局,民國85年。
朱延智,《危機處理的理論與實務》。台北:幼獅出版社,民國89年。
朱延智,《搶救台灣:小國危機處理》。台北:時報文化,民國88年。
吳仁傑 注譯,《新譯孫子讀本》。台北:三民書局,民國93年。
杜默、潘勛 譯,Peter Bergen 原著,《賓拉登的聖戰工廠》。台北:時報文化,民國90年。
林祐聖 譯,Noam Chomsky 原著,《流氓國家》。台北:正中書局,民國91年。
林碧炤 ,《國際政治與外交政策》。台北︰五南出版社,民國86年。
邵玉銘,《美國介入台海危機決策過程之研究》。台北:政大國際關係研究中心,民國88年。
計秋楓 譯,David M. Lampton 原著,《同床異夢:處理1989至2000年之中美外交》。香港:中文大學出版社,民國92年。
郭樹勇 譯,Robert J. Art 原著,《美國大戰略》。北京:北京大學出版社,民國94年。
陳飛、錢舒平 譯,Erich Schaake 原著,《萊絲:世界上最有權力的女人》。台北:晨星出版有限公司,民國94年。
國防部史政編譯室 譯,Stephen J. Cimbala 原著,《軍事說服力》。台北:國防部史政編譯室,民國94年。
張同瑩、馬勵、張定綺 譯,James R. Lilley & Chuck Downs原著,《台灣有沒有明天︰台海危機美中台關係揭密》。台北:先覺出版社,民國88年。
張建邦,《未來台海衝突中的美國》。台北:麥田出版股份有限公司,民國87年。
張舜芬 譯,Jonathan Barker 原著,《誰是恐怖主義:當恐怖主義遇上反恐戰爭》。台北:書林出版有限公司,民國94年。
楊中美,《中共外交教父錢其琛》。台北:時報文化,民國88年。
楊永明,《國際安全與國際法》。台北:元照出版有限公司,民國92年。
裘兆琳 ,《美國外交與危機處理》。台北:中央研究院歐美所,民國82年。
裘兆琳,《中美關係專題研究:1995-1997》。台北:中央研究院歐美所,民國87年。
裘兆琳,《後冷戰時期美國海外出兵案例研究》。台北:中央研究院歐美所,民國90年。
詹中原,《危機管理:個案分析》。台北:神州圖書,民國92年。
閻學通、孫學峰,《國際關係研究實用方法》。北京:人民出版社,民國90年。
錢其琛,《外交十記》。香港:三聯書店,民國93年。
蕭美惠 譯,Colin L. Powell 原著,《我的美國之旅:鮑爾將軍自傳》。台北:智庫文化,民國85年。
鍾玉玨 譯,Madeleine Albright 原著,《從難民到國務卿:歐布萊特回憶錄》。台北:時報文化,民國93年。

2.期刊
丁守中,<淺談危機處理的理論與實務>。《理論與政策》,民國77年,第3卷,第1期,頁31-40。
朱松柏,<美國與北韓簽訂核子協議及其影響>。《問題與研究》,民國84年,第34卷,第1期,頁11-18。
朱松柏,<朝鮮半島的核武危機>。《問題與研究》,民國83年,第33卷,第7期,頁1-10。
林正義,<危機研究的理論與實務>。《亞洲與世界文摘》,民國78年,第10卷,第2期,頁73-75。
林碧炤 ,<論危機處理︰美國的研究與經驗再評估>。《 美歐月刊 》,民國84年,第10卷,第5期,頁4-11。
林碧炤,<國際衝突的研究途徑與處理方法>。《問題與研究》,民國85年,第35卷,第3期,頁1-28。
林碧炤 ,<預防外交的理論與實際>。《 戰略與國際研究》,民國90年,第3卷,第1期,頁1-15。
馬仲可,<北韓退出防止武器擴散條約和朝鮮半島的核問題>。《問題與研究》,民國82年,第32卷,第6期,頁40-50。
陳紫財,<美國海外出兵準則檢證之研究—以1995-1996年台海危機為例>。《戰略與國際研究》,民國91年,第4卷,第2期,頁97-129。
陳毓鈞,<台海危機與美國干預>。《美歐月刊》,民國84年,第10卷,第1期,頁5-23。
童振源,<台灣對於大陸在1995-96年及1999-2000年武力威脅的反應>。《中國事務》,民國91年,第9期,頁71-89。
鄒念祖,<美國的索馬利亞政策>。《問題與研究》,民國83年,第33卷,第3期,頁23-38。
鄒念祖,<美國柯林頓政府的海地政策>。《美歐月刊》,民國84年,第10卷,第2期,頁19-32。
鄒念祖,<聯合國秘書長在索馬利亞和平行動中的角色>。《問題與研究》,民國83年,第33卷,第5期,頁1-19。
鄒念祖,<聯合國與海地危機>。《問題與研究》,民國83年,第33卷,第12期,頁1-11。
衛嘉定,<柯林頓政府的預防性外交政策>。《美國月刊》,民國82年,第8卷,第10期,頁69-79。
鄭端耀,<布希政府安全戰略發展評估>。《遠景基金會季刊》,民國92年,第4卷,第2期,頁1-36。


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