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研究生:周美伶
論文名稱:購屋搜尋行為之探討-搜尋期間與管道、個人認知與預期、租買經驗之分析
論文名稱(外文):Homebuyers' search behaviors-An analysis of search duration and channels, individual price perception and expectation, and prior renting and buying experience
指導教授:張金鶚張金鶚引用關係
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:地政研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:公共行政學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2006
畢業學年度:94
語文別:中文
論文頁數:98
中文關鍵詞:購屋搜尋行為房價認知與預期租買經驗存活分析
外文關鍵詞:homebuyer’s search behaviorindividual price perceptions and expectationprior renting and buying experiencesurvival analysis
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本研究針對房屋本身具有高度異質性、昂貴性、耐久性、低重複購買頻率、消費與投資雙重性等特性,使得一般行銷研究結果,套用在解釋購屋搜尋行為可能產生問題。但以往房屋市場之搜尋行為研究,多著重價格之搜尋,且忽略其他管道使用情形,難以全面窺視購屋者之搜尋行為,故本研究依據前述房屋主要的幾個特性,藉由回顧搜尋行為相關理論與文獻提出研究假說,透過存活分析法與多項邏輯特模型進行實證,重新審視購屋者之搜尋行為。
首先,考量房屋不同於一般消費性商品之特性,可能使得一般行銷研究結果,套用在解釋購屋搜尋行為時產生問題,故以存活分析探討這些特性對搜尋期間可能造成的影響。研究結果發現購屋目的顯著影響搜尋期間,且購屋者在搜尋時會同時重視產品與價格,其重視程度增加將拉長搜尋期間,而時間壓力對搜尋期間影響則不顯著。最後,透過仲介購屋之購屋者,因為可供考慮物件增多,且服務費用多寡與取得物件數量無關,因此,其搜尋期間較自行搜尋者增加。研究結果在實務上的意涵為,當景氣處於較低迷時,業者應多提供購屋者關於產品之外部資訊,特別是與家戶切身相關之房屋資訊,並極力避免價格戰,而仲介業者也應重新檢討目前的服務方式,以期達成協助購屋者迅速成交之企業訴求。
而房屋的消費與投資雙重性與經驗財之特性,使得個人對房價的認知與預期的差異,影響其搜尋期間,而產生有限理性之決策。本研究以存活分析探討個人目前房價認知與未來房價預期差異對搜尋期間的影響。結果顯示定錨效應確實影響購屋搜尋行為,在納入個人目前房價認知後,自住者對房價看法看漲者參考點較高,搜尋期間縮短,反之,看跌者搜尋期間較長。也就是對目前房價看法越樂觀,但對一年後房價看法悲觀者,其參考點向下修正幅度越高。研究結果主要貢獻在釐清購屋搜尋行為為有限理性決策,房價看法應由目前房價認知與未來房價預期共同構成,且未來房價預期有加強定錨效應的情況。
除前述特性以外,房屋尚有低重複購買頻率的特性,雖然相關研究證實經驗確實會影響搜尋期間,卻忽略租屋經驗可能造成的影響,特別是租屋搜尋與購屋搜尋有部分相似,但以往卻少有研究討論,更遑論深入分析兩種經驗個別對購屋搜尋行為的影響。本研究透過存活分析法,去探討購屋經驗、租屋經驗,對預售屋、成屋購屋搜尋行為的影響。研究結果顯示,就購買成屋部分,相對於無任何經驗之購屋搜尋者,租屋經驗與搜尋期間為正向關係,購屋經驗與搜尋期間為負向關係。而仲介服務則有助於提升中度經驗者之經驗水準,縮短其搜尋期間。就購買預售屋部分,僅購屋經驗有顯著負向影響,但租屋經驗似乎難以延伸至預售屋之購買。研究結果主要貢獻在於,釐清先前租屋經驗確實可延伸至本次的購屋搜尋,而購屋經驗對購屋搜尋期間之影響為負向,租屋經驗對搜尋期間影響為正向,且兩者對預售屋、成屋之購屋搜尋期間影響不同,故在進行分析與研究結論的引用時,應予以分別討論。
除探討搜尋期間外,本研究更針對含個人來源與商業來源不同管道對搜尋期間之影響進行討論。研究結果顯示,購屋者資訊搜尋管道之選擇,以商業來源與混合來源居多,且常使用含個人來源搜尋之購屋者,搜尋期間較有使用商業來源者短。此結果表示對購屋者而言,搜尋管道並非互斥,購屋者會努力使用不同管道去搜尋資訊,以降低決策之不確定性,且隱含購屋者對商業來源有一定程度的不信任。因此,建議業者除維持現有行銷管道,應加強口碑行銷,以提升溝通效率。
House is a durable good with heterogeneity, expensiveness, and low liquidity, and also an investment and consumption product. Those characteristics made housing search behavior not to be applied appropriately from the general marketing research results. This dissertation employs search theory, behavior theory, survival analysis, and multinomial logit model to study four relative essays.
The first essay tries to explain the difference between houses and consumer goods. Our research tested three hypotheses by questionnaires which investigated the person who is in charge family livelihood and bought house during 1998 and 2002 in Tai-chung. The three hypotheses have been confirmed. First, because the house is a good important to all family members, the search duration of the houses for self-living is longer than those for investment. Second, not only the price differences affect the search duration but also the product differences do; however, the influences of time pressure and purchase experience on search duration are not significant. Last but not least, because house searchers have more house selling information through brokers and no additional cost from visiting one more house, they prefer to extend their search duration compared to those who search by himself. The meaning of our research in practice is that the house seller should provide more product information to house buyer and give every effort to avoid price war.
The second essay is to discuss how house searchers measure search costs and benefits with utility or price if they are rational decision-makers. We develop a hypothesis and a search model of indefinite and sampling without recall which integrates the studies on worker search, prospect theory, and search behavior. The data comes from “Taiwan Housing Demand Survey” and includes home-buyers and home-searchers from 2003Q1 to 2003Q4. The result shows that the buyers are bounded rational, and the stopping ratio has time dependency. The buyers tend to search for minimum price during the economic fluctuation. When the consumption buyers have a higher housing price perception, they also have a higher reference points, it makes them shorten their search duration. And their price expectation would enhance the anchoring effect. Searching more can bring the buyers benefits mainly from utility increase but not price discount. Therefore, it seems reasonable to subsume individual price perception and expectation when analyzing home-buyers’ search behaviors.
The third essay focuses on the effects of homebuyers’ buying and renting experience on their search behaviors. The data also comes from “Taiwan Housing Demand Survey” and includes home-buyers and home-searchers from 2003Q1 to 2004Q1. The results show that our two hypotheses are supported. The effects of homebuyers’ prior house buying experience on search duration are different from their prior house renting experience. While buying a pre-sale or existing house, the buyers with renting experience have longer duration than the buyer with buying or non-experience. In addition, only buying experiences of homebuyers have positive relation with the search duration of pre-sale houses.
The final essay has two goals. One is to explore how homebuyers choose information sources. The other is to examine the relationship between information sources and search duration. The data comes from “Taiwan Housing Demand Survey” and includes the questionnaires from sampled homebuyers of 2005Q3. We also use survival model to test our hypotheses. The results show that homebuyers incline to use the commercial sources and mix sources. Even the limit of personal source, it can reduce the buyers’ search duration. Therefore, in order to improve transaction efficiency, the firms should make use of their existing marketing channels and try to build good word-of-mouth as well.
謝誌………………………………………………………………Ⅰ
摘要………………………………………………………………Ⅱ
ABSTRACT………………………………………………………Ⅳ
圖目錄……………………………………………………………Ⅷ
表目錄……………………………………………………………Ⅷ
第一章 緒論………………………………………………………1
第一節 研究動機…………………………………………………1
第二節 研究問題與目的…………………………………………5
第三節 研究方法…………………………………………………6
第四節 研究範圍與限制…………………………………………9
第五節 論文架構…………………………………………………10
第二章 文獻回顧與理論模型……………………………………11
第一節 搜尋行為定義、衡量與影響因素…………………………11
第二節 外部搜尋管道………………………………………………15
第三節 購屋搜尋模型………………………………………………18
第四節 小結…………………………………………………………21
第三章 購屋搜尋行為與一般消費性商品搜尋行為之比較……22
第一節 購屋目的、產品與價格、仲介服務對搜尋期間之影響…22
第二節 資料說明與實證模型………………………………………25
第三節 基本統計敘述………………………………………………28
第四節 實證結果……………………………………………………30
第五節 小結…………………………………………………………35
第四章 個人房價認知與預期對自住者購屋搜尋行為之影響……37
第一節 定錨效應與個人房價認知與預期…………………………37
第二節 資料說明與實證模型………………………………………41
第三節 基本統計敘述………………………………………………45
第四節 實證結果……………………………………………………48
第五節 小結…………………………………………………………54
第五章 先前租買經驗對自住購屋者搜尋行為之影響…………55
第一節 先前經驗對搜尋期間之影響………………………………55
第二節 資料說明與實證模型………………………………………60
第三節 基本統計敘述………………………………………………64
第四節 實證結果……………………………………………………66
第五節 小結…………………………………………………………71

第六章 購屋者外部搜尋管道與搜尋期間之探討……………………72
第一節 外部搜尋管道之選擇與搜尋期間……………………………72
第二節 資料說明與實證模型…………………………………………74
第三節 基本統計敘述…………………………………………………78
第四節 實證結果………………………………………………………80
第五節 小結……………………………………………………………83
第七章 結論與建議…….……………………………………………84
第一節 結論……………………………………………………………84
第二節 建議……………………………………………………………86
參考文獻………………………………………………………………87
附錄………………………………………………………………………95
附錄1:台中市購屋之主要家計負責人調查問卷………………………95
附錄2:住宅需求動向調查問卷(已購屋者)…………………………97
附錄3:住宅需求動向調查問卷(尚在搜尋者)………………………98
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