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研究生:楊依蓁
研究生(外文):Young, I-Jan
論文名稱:個別估價與大量估價準確性之研究
論文名稱(外文):The Study on Accuracy of Appraisers and Mass Appraisal
指導教授:陳奉瑤陳奉瑤引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chen, Fung-Yiao
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:地政研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:公共行政學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2006
畢業學年度:94
語文別:中文
論文頁數:100
中文關鍵詞:估值準確性個別估價大量估價
外文關鍵詞:accuracy of valuationappraisermass appraisal
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隨著電腦及統計模型的發展、原本用於稅賦評估工具的大量估價逐漸受到重視。美國更利用完善的國家層級資料,將大量估價改良為自動估價模型(Automated Valuation Model, AVM)。由於估值估算快速、成本低廉及龐大的資料庫等優點,受到美國私部門的歡迎。另一方面,不動產市場仍有存在著個別估價的客觀性的質疑,而估價行為學也證實了個別估價有偏離估價程序的可能。市場上存在著兩者的支持者,但由於兩者特性迥然不同,甚難比較。

本研究以一致的資料庫及衡量標準,將交易價格做為市場價值表徵,以估值的準確性作為衡量兩者的準則,找出兩者的特性及適用範圍。實證結果顯示當勘估標的數量達到一定程度,可忽略不動產的異質性時,個別估價與大量估價準確性並沒有顯著的差異。但個別估價準確性的分配較大量估價集中、且偏誤程度也較低。個別估價較不受不動產特性的影響,適用的範圍較廣;而大量估價較易受到不動產特性影響,適用範圍視資料庫的內容而定。另一方面,個別估價的估價認知具有時間性,表示不動產估價師需更新估價認知,以保持高度的估值準確性。此說明了國內不動產市場的變化快速及國內不動產估價師的專業能力。
With the development of computer and statistical model, the mass appraisal as assessment tool has been paid attention gradually. Americans utilize the national data to develop Automated Valuation Models (AVMs).For its advantages of faster valuation , less cost and huge database, mass appraisal is used as assessment but also appraisal tool . On the other hand, the real estate market stills have query with objectivity of individual appraisers. The study of appraisers’ behavior suggest that the possibility of deviate from standard procedure of appraising. In a matter of fact, the real state market is filled with supporters of appraisers and mass appraisals. Because of these different characteristic, it’s difficult to compare with.

This research will trade selling-prices to seek for the market value form with unanimous database and criterion, regard accuracy of valuation as and weigh the criterion of the two, and find out the characteristic of the two and scope of application .Although the result showed that the accuracy is no difference between appraiser and mass appraisal significantly when the amount of real estates is large enough to neglect heterogeneity. Compare with mass appraisal, the distribution of appraiser’s accuracy is more centralized and the standard deviation is smaller. The accuracy of appraiser is steady, and the scope of application is relatively wide. But the accuracy of mass appraisal is affected by the characteristic of real estate, and the scope of application depends on content of the database.On the other hand, the appraisal cognition has timeliness, it shows appraiser needs to upgrade the appraise cognition and the market condition , in order to keep the valuation accuracy of the height. This has stated the fast-change market and domestic the professional ability of appraisers.
第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………1
第一節 研究動機與目的………………………………………………1
第二節 研究方法與流程………………………………………………3
第三節 研究限制與範圍………………………………………………5
第二章 文獻回顧……………………………………………………………7
第一節 個別估價專業能力與實際估價行為…………………………7
第二節 大量估價之內涵與相關研究……………………………….16
第三節 個別估價與大量估價比較之文獻………………………….20
第三章 研究設計……………………………………………………………23
第一節 研究設計…………………………………………………….23
第二節 委託個別估價之設計……………………………………….31
第三節 建立大量估價模型之設計………………………………….34
第四章 實證分析……………………………………………………………49
第一節 大量估價與個別估價結果之比較………………………….49
第二節 個別估價之準確性分析…………………………………….53
第三節 大量估價之準確性分析…………………………………….64
第五章 結論與建議…………………………………………………………75
第一節 結論………………………………………………………….75
第二節 建議………………………………………………………….79
參考文獻………………………………………………………………………81
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