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研究生:王泰期
研究生(外文):Wang, Tai-Ci
論文名稱:疾病群聚檢測方法與檢定力比較
論文名稱(外文):Disease Cluster Detection Methods and Power Comparison
指導教授:余清祥余清祥引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:統計研究所
學門:數學及統計學門
學類:統計學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2006
畢業學年度:94
語文別:中文
論文頁數:56
中文關鍵詞:空間群聚累計型資料疾病偵測檢定力
外文關鍵詞:Spatial ClusterCount DataDisease DetectionPower
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空間群聚分析應用於流行病學已行之有年,但國內這方面的研究仍較缺乏,尤其在找出哪些地區有較高疾病發生率的群聚偵測。本文針對台灣鄉鎮市資料的特性,提出一套合適的群聚檢測方法,這個方法使用兩階段的電腦模擬,實證上更容易使用;這個方法除了可找出最大顯著群聚外,也能夠偵測出多個群聚的分佈。本文使用電腦模擬比較本文的方法與目前使用較為廣泛的方法(包括Kulldorff(1995)的spatial scan statistic和Tango(2005)的flexible scan statistic),以型一誤差、型二誤差及錯誤率三種標準衡量方法的優劣。最後套用台灣癌症死亡率與健保就診次數資料,探討台灣癌症空間群聚與就診情形的變化。
Spatial cluster analyses have applied in epidemiology for many years. In this topic there still are few researches in Taiwan, especially in detecting the areas which have higher disease intensity. In this paper, we proposed a new cluster detection method which is aimed at Taiwan counties’ data. This method which uses two-stage computer simulation procedures is useful in practice. This method can find the most likely cluster. Besides, it can find multiple clusters. We use computer simulations to compare our method with others (Kulldorff’s spatial scan statistic& Tango’s flexible scan statistic). Type-I error, Type-II error and error rate are criterions of measurement. At last, we use Taiwan cancer mortality data and all the people health insurance data to discuss Taiwan cancer spatial clusters and the change of diagnoses.
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的 1
第三節 本文編排 2
第二章 文獻回顧 3
第一節 檢定群聚 3
(一)總體性檢定(global test) 3
(二)局部性檢定(local test) 4
(三)焦點性檢定(focus test) 5
第二節 近年相關研究回顧 5
第三節 常見的群聚偵測方法 5
(一)Choynowski Probability Mapping 6
(二)Kulldorff & Nagarwalla Spatial Disease Clusters 6
(三)Tango and Takahashi Flexible Scan Statistics 7
第三章 兩階段的群聚檢測 9
第一節 基本統計模型(群聚分析的常見假設) 9
第二節 單一群聚兩階段群聚檢測方法 10
第三節 多重群聚逐步檢測方法 11
第四節方法特色與圖例說明 11
第四章 群聚檢定方法與模擬檢定結果 13
第一節 模擬設定與檢定表 13
第二節 單一群聚檢測 15
(一)顯著水準對型一誤差及檢定力的影響 15
(二)疾病發生率及人口數對型一誤差及檢定力的影響 16
(三)不同形狀位置群聚對檢定力的影響 18
第三節 多重群聚檢測方法 21
(一)兩群聚型一誤差 22
(二)兩群聚檢定力比較 22
第四節 單一群聚結果修正 26
第五章 方法比較 30
第一節 型一誤差 30
第二節 單一中心圓形群聚檢定力比較 31
第三節 單一中心長形群聚檢定力比較 33
第四節 單一中心Y字形群聚檢定力比較 35
第五節 模擬比較小結 38
第六章 實證應用 39
第一節 83年以及89年台灣癌症死亡人數 39
第二節 台灣門診就診次數變化 43
第三節 實證應用小結 44
第七章 結論與後續研究 46
第一節 結論 46
第二節 後續研究: 47
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