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研究生:陳秋如
論文名稱:盈餘穩健性、市價對淨值比與外資法人持股之關聯性
指導教授:戚務君戚務君引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:會計研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:會計學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2006
畢業學年度:94
語文別:中文
論文頁數:82
中文關鍵詞:盈餘穩健性市價對淨值比外資
外文關鍵詞:Earnings conservatismPrice-to-book ratioForeign investment
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過去的實證研究指出,在討論當期的會計盈餘穩健性時,研究者必須要控制期初會計盈餘穩健性的水準。具體而言,期初會計盈餘穩健性與本期會計盈餘穩健性的負向關係,會稀釋我們對當期會計盈餘穩健性的解釋效果。基於這個理由,本研究以期初市價對淨值比做為期初會計盈餘穩健性的代理變數,去檢視我國1999年至2004年會計盈餘的穩健性以及探討盈餘穩健性與外資法人持股比例之關聯性。穩健原則之定義,係以 Basu(1997)模型做為衡量穩健性的指標。研究結果發現,我國企業近年來之會計盈餘存在穩健原則之特性,而期初市價對淨值比與盈餘穩健程度之間呈現顯著之負向相關。至於針對外資持股與盈餘穩健性之關聯性的分析,在控制期初市價對淨值比的影響之後,本研究未能找到外資持股比例之高低對盈餘穩健程度有顯著影響之證據。然而,在期初市價對淨值比最高的組別中,盈餘穩健程度與次期外資持股比例之間存在正向之關係。這個現象意味著對於期初盈餘穩健性很高的公司而言,其在當期之盈餘若相對較穩健,則次期之外資持股比例將會較高。但是,在本研究改以工具變數衡量外資持股比例之後,不論是當期或次期的外資持股比例,其與盈餘穩健程度之間則均未存在顯著之關聯性。彙總而言,利用1999年至2004年的資料,本研究發現,期初會計盈餘穩健性與本期會計盈餘穩健性有顯著的負向關係;無論有無控制期初會計盈餘穩健性,我國的會計盈餘均具有穩健性的特性;未能得到非常充份的證據去宣稱外資對於我國會計盈餘穩健性有系統性的影響。
Prior empirical studies indicate that researchers have to control for the level of beginning-of-period earnings conservatism when discussing earnings conservatism in the current period. The negative association between beginning-of-period earnings conservatism and earnings conservatism in the current period will dilute the effect of our explanation of earnings conservatism in the current period. Using beginning-of-period price-to-book ratios to proxy for beginning-of-period earnings conservatism, this study examines earnings conservatism in Taiwan during the period from 1999 to 2004, and discusses the relationship between earnings conservatism and shareholding ratios of foreign institutional investors. The definition of earnings conservatism is based on Basu(1997). The empirical results show that earnings in Taiwan demonstrate the characteristic of earnings conservatism in recent years, and that beginning-of-period price-to-book ratios are negatively associated with the level of earnings conservatism. As for the analysis of the link between shareholding ratios of foreign institutional investors and earnings conservatism, this study fails to find the evidence that shareholding ratios of foreign institutional investors have significant impacts on earnings conservatism after controlling for the level of beginning-of-period price-to-book ratios. However, in the portfolio of the highest beginning-of-period price-to-book ratios, there is a positive relationship between earnings conservatism and shareholding ratios of foreign institutional investors in the next period. This result means that firms with the highest level of beginning-of-period earnings conservatism will have higher shareholding ratios of foreign institutional investors in the next period if their earnings in the current period are relatively more conservative. However, when this study uses the instrumental variable to measure shareholding ratios of foreign institutional investors, shareholding ratios of foreign institutional investors, whether in the current or next period, do not have a significant relationship with the level of earnings conservatism. In summary, using data from 1999 to 2004, this study finds that there is significantly negative association between beginning-of-period earnings conservatism and earnings conservatism in the current period, and that earnings in Taiwan demonstrate the characteristic of earnings conservatism whether controlling for the level of beginning-of-period earnings conservatism or not, but this study fails to obtain sufficient evidence to assert that foreign investment has systematic effects on earnings conservatism in Taiwan.
目 錄
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究問題 8
第三節 論文架構 9
第二章 外資引進與投資國內證券市場之概況 10
第一節 我國開放外資之過程 10
第二節 我國外資管理制度 15
第三節 外資在台灣市場發展現況 19
第三章 文獻探討 21
第一節 外資對資本市場的影響與外資之持股特性 21
第二節 機構投資人之持股角色 24
第三節 穩健原則之定義與衡量方式 26
第四節 影響會計政策穩健性的因素 32
第四章 研究方法 36
第一節 研究假說 36
第二節 實證模型 40
第三節 樣本選取與資料來源 46
第五章 實證結果與分析 48
第一節 敘述性統計 48
第二節 多元迴歸分析 52
第六章 結論與建議 74
第一節 結論與建議 74
第二節 研究限制 76
參考文獻 77


表 目 錄
表2.1 開放外資三階段 11
表2.2 我國開放外資投資國內證券簡史 13
表2.3 外資投入我國股市概況表 19
表2.4 集中交易市場投資法人交易概況表 20
表2.5 集中交易市場成交金額投資人類別比例表 20
表5.1 敘述統計量 50
表5.2 盈餘與報酬之關係 53
表5.3 市價對淨值比以及盈餘與報酬之關係 55
表5.4 外資持股比例以及盈餘與報酬之關係 57
表5.5 市價對淨值比、外資持股比例以及盈餘與報酬之關係 59
表5.6 市價對淨值比、次期外資持股比例以及盈餘與報酬之關係 64
表5.7 外資持股比例影響因素之迴歸結果 69
表5.8 市價對淨值比、外資持股比例以及盈餘與報酬之關係(工具變數法) 70
表5.9 市價對淨值比、次期外資持股比例以及盈餘與報酬之關係(工具變數 法) 72

圖 目 錄
圖1.1 外資持股佔總市值比例 2
圖5.1 依市價對淨值比分組(k)之各組 係數之95%信賴區間 54
圖5.2 依外資持股比例分組(q)之各組 係數之95%信賴區間 56
圖5.3 各分組盈餘穩健係數之95%信賴區間(k=1) 60
圖5.4 各分組盈餘穩健係數之95%信賴區間(k=2) 61
圖5.5 各分組盈餘穩健係數之95%信賴區間(k=3) 61
圖5.6 各分組盈餘穩健係數之95%信賴區間(k=4) 62
圖5.7 各分組盈餘穩健係數之95%信賴區間(k=5) 62
圖5.8 各分組盈餘穩健係數之95%信賴區間(k=1):次期效果 65
圖5.9 各分組盈餘穩健係數之95%信賴區間(k=2):次期效果 66
圖5.10 各分組盈餘穩健係數之95%信賴區間(k=3):次期效果 66
圖5.11 各分組盈餘穩健係數之95%信賴區間(k=4):次期效果 67
圖5.12 各分組盈餘穩健係數之95%信賴區間(k=5):次期效果 67
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