RFID-Enabled 供應鏈之存補貨代理人模擬系統設計
－ 以TFT-LCD產業為例
學生：劉世斐 指導教授：王樹仁 博士
國立勤益技術學院生產系統工程與管理研究所碩士班
摘要
液晶顯示器(TFT-LCD)產業為台灣之高產值產業，且是全球主要之供應國之一。液晶顯示器之零組件包括玻璃基板、濾光片、背光模組、偏光板、液晶、面板驅動IC、液晶面板等專業廠，為了提升產業整體經營效率，供應鏈上、中、下游供應商整合是必然之趨勢。為減緩因長鞭效應所造成之生產過剩或原物料積壓風險，模擬採用全球標準產品電子碼EPC之無線射頻標籤RFID化及時供應鏈系統，有效的執行即時存補貨作業，進行最佳化產能規劃，以追求利潤之最大化。目前，RFID/EPCs系統已於2005年起由美國國防部DoD與零售業巨人Wal-Mart正式於其供應鏈之採購交貨作業展開試行，故行銷全球市場之液晶顯示器產業，勢必迎合潮流，採用RFID/EPCs，以提升供應鏈存貨管理之效率。
本研究以台灣某大液晶顯示器製造商之17吋液晶顯示器，全球運籌供應鏈為驗證案例，以模擬系統開發工具AnyLogic，建構符合SCOR標準之多階層供應鏈模型，依據RFID系統及時之資訊異動，自動執行供應鏈各階層廠商原物料、半成品與成品，接收與撥發工作之物件導向多重代理人模型，採用（s,S）之存補貨政策，建構完成RFID代理人供應鏈模型之自動存補貨系統，將資訊分享及時化機制，導入於供應鏈物料管理流程之中，研究相較於拉式供應鏈系統之執行成效。
研究結果證實，RFID代理人供應鏈可以有效降低長鞭效應擺盪幅度，且及時正確的掌握庫存異動，不僅為存補貨管理提供正確之決策參考，更可以提高供應鏈各階層之間資訊透明度。而且經實驗數據證明，RFID代理人供應鏈相較於拉式供應鏈，可以有效提高供應鏈管理效率；例如液晶顯示器生產工廠階層，存貨總成本降低3.11%，整體供應鏈之存貨週轉率提高了 8.23％，同時，存貨總成本降低3.75％，經過模擬實驗證明RFID代理人供應鏈之執行效益。
KeyWord：供應鏈、多重代理人、RFID/EPCs、自動存補貨系統

The Design of RFID-enabled Supply Chain Agent-Based Automatic Inventory Replenishment Simulation System for TFT-LCD Industry
Student：Liu Shih-Fei Advisors：Dr. Wang Shu-Jen

Institute of Production System Engineering and Management
National Chin-Yi Institute of Technology
ABSTRACT
TFT-LCD is a high-value industry in Taiwan, and Taiwan is one of the major global TFT-LCD suppliers. The major components of TFT-LCD include white light source, polarizer, circuit plate, color filter, liquid crystal solution, and viewing side. To enhance the total efficiency, integration of suppliers in the supply chain is an absolute trend. Meanwhile, to reduce the risk of over-production or accumulation of materials caused by bullwhip effect, the adoption of RFID-enabled agent-based Supply Chain from the universally standardized EPC (Electronic Product Code) can effectively gain the most benefit. The RFID/EPCs system has been formally used by the U. S. Department of Defense and the retailer giant Wal-Mart in their supply chains since January, 2005. Therefore, TFT-LCD industry must adopt the RFID/EPCs system so that it can follow the global trend and enhance the efficiency of inventory management in the supply chain.
This research is based on the 17”Monitor Global Logistics and Supply Chain case of a major TFT-LCD manufacturer in Taiwan. It consists of four manufacturing factories, three local distribution centers, more than ten retailer warehouses and upstream suppliers. The research builds multi-tier supply chain model, which meets the SCOR standard, with AnyLogic. Besides, it adopts the s-S inventory replenishment policy to complete the automatic inventory replenishment function in RFID-enabled real-time supply chain, and induces real-time information sharing system into the supply chain. Then, a comparison between the performing results and effects of the traditional pull-based supply chain and the RFID-enabled real-time supply chain is made
The results of the experiment are as follows: the RFID-enabled agent-based supply chain can effectively reduce the impact of bullwhip effect, and stay in control with inventory cost instantly and exactly. At the same time, the system provides controlling interface for system users to change the setting of safety stock, which can minimize the uncertainty of decision-making for supply chain managers. It can not only provide correct references for decision-making on management, but also enhance the information transparency among all suppliers in the supply chain. In addition, the experiment has proved that in comparison with the pull-based supply chain, the RFID-enabled agent-based supply chain can effectively enhance the managing efficiency of the supply chain. For example, the factory inventory level has a 3.11% decrease, the inventory turnover rate has a 8.23％ increase, and the degree of the inventory cost has a 3.75％ decrease. The experiment of the simulation shows the improvement on inventory management which applies the RFID-enabled agent-based supply chain model.



KeyWord：SCM、Multi-Agent、RFID/EPCs、Inventory Replenishment

目 錄
中文摘要 …………………………………………………………… i
英文摘要 …………………………………………………………… ii
誌謝 …………………………………………………………… iii
目錄 …………………………………………………………… iv
表目錄 …………………………………………………………… vi
圖目錄 …………………………………………………………… viii
符號說明 …………………………………………………………… x

第一章 緒論……………………………………………………… 1
1.1 研究背景與動機………………………………………… 1
1.2 研究問題與目的………………………………………… 2
1.3 研究範圍與限制………………………………………… 3
1.4 研究流程與架構………………………………………… 4
第二章 文獻探討………………………………………………… 6
2.1 供應鏈管理……………………………………………… 6
2.1.1 供應鏈定義與特性……………………………………… 6
2.1.2 長鞭效應對供應鏈的影響……………………………… 7
2.1.3 需求驅動型供應網路…………………………………… 9
2.1.4 供應鏈動態模擬………………………………………… 10
2.2 代理人技術……………………………………………… 12
2.2.1 代理人定義與特性……………………………………… 13
2.2.2 代理人種類……………………………………………… 14
2.2.3 代理人應用……………………………………………… 16
2.3 RFID技術………………………………………………… 17
2.3.1 RFID作用原理…………………………………………… 18
2.3.2 RFID工作頻率…………………………………………… 18
2.3.3 RFID應用………………………………………………… 20
第三章 TFT-LCD產業供應鏈分析……………………………… 25
3.1 全球產業環境分析……………………………………… 25
3.2 我國產業現況分析……………………………………… 27
3.3 產業供應鏈結構………………………………………… 28
3.4 產業問題描述……………………………………………… 30
第四章 TFT-LCD供應鏈模型建構……………………………… 33
4.1 模型需求分析…………………………………………… 33
4.1.1 使用個案塑模…………………………………………… 33
4.1.2 拉式供應鏈需求分析…………………………………… 34
4.1.3 RFID代理人供應鏈需求分析…………………………… 35
4.2 多重代理人塑模………………………………………… 36
4.2.1 代理人內部結構………………………………………… 36
4.2.2 代理人控制方法………………………………………… 37
4.2.3 供應鏈代理人分類……………………………………… 38
4.2.4 多重代理人供應鏈模型………………………………… 41
4.3 自動存補貨模擬機制…………………………………… 43
4.3.1 AnyLogic模擬工具…………………………………… 43
4.3.2 建模條件與實驗參數…………………………………… 46
4.3.3 拉式供應鏈模型………………………………………… 59
4.3.4 RFID代理人供應鏈模型………………………………… 60
4.4 供應鏈模型驗證分析…………………………………… 62
4.4.1 穩態測試………………………………………………… 62
4.4.2 時相關係測試…………………………………………… 65
4.4.3 整合測試………………………………………………… 66
第五章 案例模擬實驗分析……………………………………… 69
5.1 模擬實驗結果…………………………………………… 71
5.2 模擬實驗結果比較……………………………………… 72
5.2.1 拉式供應鏈模型實驗結果比較………………………… 72
5.2.2 RFID代理人供應鏈模型實驗結果比較………………… 76
5.2.3 供應鏈模型實驗結果交叉比較………………………… 78
5.3 供應鏈模型實驗結果分析……………………………… 79
5.3.1 KPI值比較分析…………………………………………… 79
5.3.2 成對母體平均數檢定…………………………………… 80
5.3.3 白奴里試驗（Bernoulli experiment）………………… 83
5.3.4 常態機率圖分析………………………………………… 87
5.3.5 模擬實驗結論…………………………………………… 88
第六章 結論與建議……………………………………………… 90
參考文獻 …………………………………………………………… 92

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