臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

隨著國民生活水準的提昇，人們對於產品的品質和多樣性要求愈高，而處於顧客導向的競爭市場中，對於販售單一週期性產品，存貨的控管是一個很重要的課題，因為若未能在有效期限內賣出，過了期限後便須以賤價賣出或視為廢料處理，最典型的例子就是街角的送報生，將買進來的報紙在當天內賣出，如果當天沒賣完，剩下來的存貨就已經幾乎視為呆廢料了。同時規劃週期只有一期，所以此類商品的價值具有隨時間增加而銳減的特性，一般此種商品的存貨問題都採用報童模式處理。報童模式主要不考慮資源限制下針對單一產品，以一固定價格販售具不確定需求的產品，在有效期限為訂購週期的條件下，決定最適訂購量使得期望利潤最高；然而與實務上不符合有以下兩點：一、實務上市場需求為價格敏感，即售價愈低則市場需求平均值愈高，反之價格愈高，則市場需求平均值愈低。二、實務上可經由觀察市場銷售的情形決定是否折價，若市場銷售量低於預期，則零售商可以折價促銷方式增加市場需求與降低庫存量，增加銷售利潤。故本論文以報童模式為基礎，同時加入價格敏感與折價折扣建構一以定價、訂購量、折扣、非折扣期間比例為決策變數之零售商總期望利潤函
式，並由此利潤函式同時解出最佳之四個決策變數之值達到期望利潤最大化之目標供決策人員參考。

Previous studies don't take price-sensitive demand and price discount into account in a newsboy model at the same time. Therefore, a revised newsboy model is developed to analyze the retailer's price, quantity, discount, and discounting interval decisions. The retailer operates to meet price-sensitive random demand of one product in a single period. The retailer has to determine the regular price, order quantity, discounted price, and the discounting period in order to maximize its profit.

摘要. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .i
英文摘要. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ii
誌謝. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .iii
表目錄. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vii
圖目錄. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .viii
第一章 緒論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
1.1 研究背景與動機. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 研究假設. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.3 研究目的與步驟. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.4 論文架構. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
第二章 相關文獻回顧. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
2.1 單一週期問題(Single Period Problem, SPP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.2 報童模式相關文獻與延伸. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.2.1 含折扣之擴展報童模式. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2.2.2 含價格敏感需求之擴展報童模式. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.2.3 同時含折扣與價格敏感需求之擴展報童模式. . . . . . . . . . 9
2.2.4 其它擴展報童模式. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.3 求解相關工具. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2.3.1 高斯數值積分. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2.3.2 基因演算法. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.4 小結. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
第三章 問題定義與模式. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
3.1 問題描述與基本假設. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
3.1.1 問題描述. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
3.1.2 基本假設. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3.1.3 符號說明. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
3.2 零售商模式建構. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
3.3 指數分配之模式分析. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3.3.1 只考慮定價與零售商總期望利潤之關係. . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
3.3.2 只考慮訂購量與零售商總期望利潤之關係. . . . . . . . . . . 27
3.3.3 只考慮折扣與零售商總期望利潤之關係. . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
3.3.4 只考慮折扣期間與零售商總期望利潤之關係. . . . . . . . . . 30
3.4 同時考慮四決策變數與零售商總期望利潤之關係. . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.4.1 基因演算法之程式設計. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.4.2 局部搜尋法. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
3.5 小結. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
第四章 案例探討與參數分析. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37
4.1 案例參數設定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
4.2 案例分析. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
4.2.1 Case 1：固定定價、折扣與折扣期間，求解最佳訂購量. . . 38
4.2.2 Case 2：固定折扣與折扣期間，同時求解最佳定價與訂購量. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
4.2.3 Case 3：同時求解三個決策變數，(1) 固定折扣；(2) 固定折扣
期間. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
4.2.4 Case 4：同時求解四個決策變數. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
4.3 參數分析. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
4.4 小結. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
第五章 結論與未來研究方向. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53
5.1 結論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
5.2 未來研究方向. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
參考文獻. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55
附錄A 牛頓法求解過程. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59
自述. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67

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