臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

在過去，企業著重於改善自己內部的流程或是商業機能，也得到了可觀的成效。但隨著時間演進，消費市場的轉變，現今產業面對的是劇烈變化、低庫存、快速回應以及高度顧客滿意度的環境，因此完備的供應鏈體系是今天產業成功的關鍵因素。但現今由於商品多屬於短生命週期或是季節性產品，產品需求只有在某個特定時間內才會大量出現；而這類商品的一個重要特性就是需求相當不確定，因此供應商希望下游訂單及早確定，但下游零售商卻希望訂單能夠晚確定。在此情形下，若想使用傳統模式來同時提升製造商與零售商表現可能不甚容易，故本研究的目的就是希望能提出更完備的方法來減少上下游間因決策不良而形成的損失。零售商在某個銷售季節開始前向供應商訂購產品，並且有兩個訂購機會，一個較早，離銷售季節較遠；另一個較晚，離銷售季節較近。在第一個時間點，零售商必須告訴供應商訂購數量；第二個時間點則用以修正第一次訂購的數量。在兩個訂購點之間，零售商則想辦法去獲取有關銷售季節的資訊來為第二次訂購作準備。在本研究中將會探討零售商第二次的修正訂購量為正或為負時的情形，期望能藉著發生在第二次訂購時的追加成本與抽單成本提升供應鏈整體利益。

We consider the ordering problem in the supply chain which consists of one retailer and one supplier. The retailer orders products from the supplier prior to a single selling season at two instants. The first instant is far away the selling season and the second instant is near the selling season. During the two instants, the retailer can gather the market information. Because of the uncertainty of short life-cycle products, the retailer will utilize the information gathered between the first and second instants to improve the demand forecast when he orders the second time. At the second instant, the retailer will modify the order quantity, that is, he can add or cancel quantities based on the order made at the first instant. If he orders more, he will incur a unit wholesale price larger than the previous unit wholesale price, and if he orders less, then he will pay the supplier the order canceling fee. Under such a situation, we find the optimal ordering decisions at both instants and discuss the quality of the information gathered by the retailer. We also conduct a numerical study and propose some managerial insights for the supplier.

摘要 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .I
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . II
誌謝 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .III
第一章緒論 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
1.1 研究背景與動機. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.2 研究目的. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.3 研究範圍與假設. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.4 論文架構. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
第二章文獻探討 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
2.1 報童模式. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.2 快速回應. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.3 二次訂購. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.4 其他相關成果. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.5 小結. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
第三章模式建構與發展 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
3.1 模式假設與模式使用符號. . . . . . . . . . 18
3.2 零售商訂購問題. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
3.2.1 不考慮抽單下之零售商訂購問題. . . . . . 20
3.2.2 隨機需求模式. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3.2.3 考慮抽單成本之零售商訂購問題. . . . . . .25
3.2.4 求解零售商之最大期望利益 . . . . . . . . 26
3.3 供應商問題 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
3.3.1 供應商模式 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.4 資訊量的品質問題 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
3.4.1 無價值資訊量(Worthless Information) . . 31
3.4.2 完全資訊量(Perfect Information) . . . . 32
3.5 本章回顧與總結 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
第四章數值分析 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
4.1 零售商問題數值分析 . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
4.1.1 需求模擬分析、參數與決策變數關聯分析 . . 35
4.1.2 零售商參數與期望利益分析. . . . . . . . 38
4.2 供應商參數數值分析. . . . . . . . . . . . 43
4.3 資訊量品質相關數值分析. . . .. . . . . . . 46
第五章結論與未來研究方向 . . . . . . . . . . 48
參考文獻 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
附錄 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

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