臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

知識擷取一直是建構專家系統最具挑戰性且最重要的議題。在過去數十年來，已有許多知識擷取的方法和系統被提出。多數的專家系統知識擷取方法主要是以認知心理學為基礎，針對單一專家進行系統化的知識彙集；然而，由於不同專家通常擁有不同的職場經驗及領域專長，因此結合多位專家建置而成的專家系統，不僅能確定知識來源的準確度，也能獲得更寬廣且完整的專業領域知識。過去在特定的應用領域方面，多專家的專家系統已經被證實比單一專家提供的知識能獲得更好的推論結果；同時，在學者們發展多專家知識庫系統的經驗也顯示，欲有效地表達與整合專家知識是一件具挑戰性的工作，而在加入時間變因的考量下，多專家的知識擷取與整合更顯得困難且複雜。為了解決這些問題，在本研究中，我們結合了德懷術及具備時間導向之凱利方格，提出了多專家知識擷取與整合方法。同時，為了驗證新的方法的效能，我們建置了一套線上多專家知識擷取與整合系統，並以醫學領域進行實驗。由實驗的結果顯示，本研究提出的方法，確實能夠有效的處理在時間因素介入下的多專家的知識擷取與整合問題。

Knowledge acquisition has been a critical bottleneck in building knowledge-based systems. In past decades, several methods and systems have been proposed to cope with this problem. Most of these methods and systems were proposed to deal with the acquisition of domain knowledge from single expert. However, as multiple experts may have different experiences and knowledge on the same application domain, it is necessary to elicit and integrate knowledge from multiple experts in building an effective expert system. Moreover, recent literature has depicted that “time” is an important parameter that might significantly affect the accuracy of inference results of an expert system; therefore, while discussing the elicitation of domain expertise from multiple experts, it an challenging and important issue to take the “time” factor into consideration. To cope with these problems, in this study, we propose a time scale-oriented approach to eliciting knowledge from multiple experts based on Delphi method and a revised Repertory Grod-oriented approach. The novel approach takes the time discourse into consideration in eliciting elements and traits, such that the variant of elements in different time scales can be precisely expressed. An application on the diagnosis of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome has depicted the superiority of the novel approach.

誌謝………………………………………………………………………………………… i
摘要………………………………………………………………………………………… iii
ABSTRACT………………………………………………………………………………... iv
Contents…………………………………………………………………………..………... v
List of Figures …………………………………………………………………vii
List of Tables……………………………………………………………………………… ix
Chapter 1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………….. 1
Chapter 2. Relevant Research………………………………………………………………. 3
2.1 Knowledge Acquisition Methods and Systems…………………………….…... 3
2.1.1 Repertory Grid Method and Relevant Systems…………………………… 5
2.1.2 Elicitiation of Embedded Meanings……………………………………… 8
2.2 Knowledge Acquisition from Multiple Experts…………………………………. 12
2.3 Delphi Technology………………………………………………………………. 12
2.4 Time Scale Problem in Knowledge Acquisition………………………………. 14
2.5 Applications and Limitations of Expert Systems……………………………...… 15
Chapter 3. Knowledge Acquisition from Multiple Experts with Time Scale-oriented approach……………….……………………………………………………… 19
3.1 Using Delphi Technology to Elicit Elements from Multiple Experts…………. 21
3.2 Using Delphi Technology to Determine Time Scales of Each Element…………29
3.3 Eliciting Constructs from Multiple Experts………………………………… 32
3.4 Acquiring <Elements, Constructs> Ratings from Individual Expert…………… 33
3.5 Integrating Corresponding Ratings from Multiple Experts…………………… 35
3.6 Generating Original and the Partially Matched Rules…………………………. 42
3.7 Generating Certainty Factors for the Partially Matched Rules………………… 44
Chapter 4. Development of a Web-Based Knowledge Acquisition System………………. 48
4.1 System Structure of KAMET…………………………………………………. 48
4.2 Database Schema of KAMET……………. …………………………………… 51
4.3 User Interface of KAMET……………………………………………………… 54
Chapter 5. Experiments and Analysis……………………………………………………...68
Chapter 6. Conclusions……………………………………………………………………. 70
References………………………………………………………………………………… 71

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