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研究生:顏子揚
研究生(外文):Tze-Yang Yen
論文名稱:捷運沿線土地使用變遷模擬模式之建構與應用
論文名稱(外文):The Simulation Model and Its Application of Land Use Change along the Metro Line
指導教授:馮正民馮正民引用關係林楨家林楨家引用關係
指導教授(外文):Cheng-Min FengJen-Jia Lin
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立交通大學
系所名稱:交通運輸研究所
學門:運輸服務學門
學類:運輸管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2006
畢業學年度:94
語文別:中文
論文頁數:121
中文關鍵詞:土地使用變遷捷運系統多主體系統細胞自動機
外文關鍵詞:Land use changeMetro systemMulti-agent systemCellular Automata
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:18
  • 點閱點閱:881
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:171
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:5
土地使用變遷模式在都市研究領域一直是相當重要且複雜的課題,在規劃過程中,規劃者如果掌握土地使用的變遷與發展狀況,則對於都市規劃之研擬可提供很大的幫助。過去土地使用變遷相關研究多以靜態呈現為主,無法呈現每一時間點土地使用的狀況,而網格模式雖然具有動態特性,但其無法描述行為者之間所帶來的多變化結果。有鑒於此,本研究目的在建立動態且能描述行為者間互動關係的土地使用變遷模式,並應用於捷運沿線土地使用變遷之模擬分析。
本研究以多主體系統(Multi-agent system)為基礎,透過文獻回顧釐清影響土地使用變遷的因素,利用多元羅吉特模式之型式來建立土地使用轉換規則,及建構捷運沿線土地使用變遷模式。繼而本研究以地理資訊系統進行土地使用判釋與網格資料收集,並以NetLogo軟體作為模擬平台,應用所建立模式進行捷運新店線台北縣部份的實例分析。
本研究模擬捷運新店線沿線土地使用變遷之正確率達90%,經由模擬結果發現商業使用會沿著捷運沿線呈現帶狀發展,預測未來土地使用變化在無政策下並不明顯,說明政策對土地使用變遷的重要。本研究進一步針對新店線進行政策分析,包括增加捷運沿線容積率、改善步行環境與模擬規劃中的捷運環狀線,結果發現增加沿線容積率,效果會呈現遞減;改變步行環境會使車站附近商業區範圍擴大,但政策效果最差;而捷運環狀線的興建會使捷運沿線的土地價值增加,商業使用呈現帶狀分佈,其政策效果最強。
Land use change model has been an important and complicated issue in urban research. If we can grasp the changes and development of land uses in planning process, it will provide much assistance in drawing up urban plan. The past research about land use change model mainly paid much attention on a static state, few on land use change situations through time. Although the cellular automata model performs dynamic feature, the model fails to display the changeable results which describe the behaviors among agents. On account of above reasons, this research aims at developing a dynamic land use change model, which can simulate the interactions among agents and forecast the land use changes along metro line.
The simulation model in this research was developed based on multi-agent system and the influence factors of land use change are explored from literature review. The land use change rule was formulated as multinomial logit model. The geography information system was applied to interpret land use and to organize data in terms of grid pattern. Finally, the NetLogo software was used as platform to simulate the land use change of Xindian Line in Taipei County.
In the case study, the accuracy rate of forecasted land use is 90%. The simulated results found that commercial use spreads along the metro line. According to the forecast results, the land use change is not significant without any policy. This research further performed policy analyses, which include increasing floor-area ratio along metro route, improving walking environment and introducing the Circular Line of metro system. The policy analyses reached the following conclusions: (1) the effect of increasing floor-area ratio decreases with the increasing ratio; (2) improving walking environment expands the commercial areas in nearby metro stations but the policy effect is the worst; and, (3) the Circular Line will increase the land use value along the metro line, form the commercial land uses into belt-shaped distribution and perform the strongest policy effect.
中文摘要 I
英文摘要 II
圖目錄 VII
表目錄 IX
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究範圍與限制 2
1.4 研究內容與流程 6
1.5 研究方法 9
第二章 文獻回顧 11
2.1 土地使用變遷模式 11
2.1.1 土地使用定義 11
2.1.2 土地使用變遷趨勢 12
2.1.3 土地使用變遷模式 14
2.1.4 模式比較分析 26
2.2 多主體系統(MULTI-AGENTS SYSTEM, MAS) 27
2.2.1 多主體系統組成元素 27
2.2.2 多主體空間規劃 31
2.3.3 多主體系統架構 34
2.3.4 多主體模式在土地使用變遷上的應用 36
2.3.5 多主體系統模式案例分析 38
2.3 綜合評述 39
2.3.1 過去土地使用變遷模式評析 39
2.3.2 過去土地使用變遷模式的重大影響 40
第三章 模式構想 41
3.1 研究課題 41
3.1.1 課題分析 41
3.1.2 研究架構 48
3.2 問題說明 50
3.3 模式架構 52
3.3.1 多主體系統 52
3.3.2 NetLogo介紹 57
3.3.3 模式架構 58
第四章 模式建構 60
4.1 NETLOGO操作系統 60
4.1.1、NetLogo系統介紹 60
4.1.2 NetLogo指令系統 63
4.1.3 土地使用變遷因素變數 64
4.2 轉換規則 67
4.2.1 羅吉特模式 67
4.2.2 土地使用選擇模式 69
4.3 簡例測試 71
第五章 實例分析 74
5.1實例說明 74
5.1.1 研究地區特性說明 74
5.1.2 判釋準則 78
5.2 資料調查 81
5.3 模擬分析 85
5.3.1 模式界面說明 85
5.3.2 轉換規則參數校估 91
5.4 政策分析 98
5.4.1政策說明 98
5.4.2 政策模擬 99
5.5 小結 104
第六章 結論與建議 105
6.1結論 105
6.2建議 106
參考文獻 108
附錄A 捷運沿線土地使用變遷模式之NETLOGO模擬程式碼 111
簡 歷 121
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