臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

通信科技的不斷進步，人類的「溝通」變得更自然與更多元，衝擊著電信產業亦不斷的演化。1990s年代隨著行動通信進入市場，部份電信管制機關為促進市場公平競爭，避免業者獨大壟斷市場，如日本和中國作成固網和行動分離經營的管制政策。另一方面，受FMS (fixed to mobile substitution)影響，全球行動業者被視為成長股，在資本市場一枝獨秀，華爾街承銷商(underwriters) 鼓吹行動部門自固網的經營解構，在民營化歷程中首次公開發行 (IPO) 享有較高的獲利，例如英國BT、法國FT、瑞士Swisscom、愛爾蘭Eircom及香港PCCW等，其行動部門2001年皆自原全業務的經營解構出去。然而如新加坡SingTel、德國DT、澳洲Telstra及台灣中華電信等，在首次公開發行 (IPO) 中仍保有固網和行動的全業務經營模式。因此，全球電信經營型態可區分為唯行動 (mobile-only)、唯固網 (fixed-only) 及全業務 (full-service)，本研究主題即在探討此三種業者經營效率的比較。

資料包絡分析法 (DEA) 的優點係結合投入和產生變數的分析。本文觀察對象大多為Forbes 2000全球排名前兩千大的電信業者，以設備為基礎的三種經營型態，每種各取9家業者總共27家，透過為期5年 (2000-2004年) 的觀察，衡量三種經營形態相對效率的比較研究。投入 (input) 變數包括總資產 (total assets) 、資本支出 (CAPEX) 和員工數 (employees) 三種，產出 (output) 變數包括營收(revenue)、息前稅前折舊攤銷前盈餘 (EBITDA)、息前稅前盈餘 (EBIT) 及淨利 (net income) 四種。

本研究證明全業務業者在2002-2004年間呈現反轉最佳的效率。唯固網業者雖面臨語音營收的衰退，由於xDSL出現帶來寬頻網路和資料新的營收來源，2001年起顯現相對次佳的效率。而唯行動業者在已開發國家因行動市場日趨飽和，又無固網寬頻以挹注新營收來源，於2000年達到高峰後，次年起逐漸顯現相對較低的效率。面對未來IP匯流趨勢，不僅固網和行動平台日趨整合，全業務業者可延展通路、人力、內容加值等各種資源，捆綁產品尋找吸引子連結至用戶端，則未來經營前景可期。本文提供通信傳播匯流下政府管制政策，及以產業分析為基礎的投資併購和策略規劃之參考。

This paper compares the efficiency of full-service telcos which offer both fixed-line and mobile services with fixed-only and mobile-only carriers during the 2000-2004 period. The DEA (data envelopment analysis) method is employed to measure the relative efficiency of the three groups of carriers. The data for DEA are retrieved from UBS Investment Bank and Annual Reports as disclosed on the carriers’ websites. The objects operators are leading companies in the telecom industry based upon their rankings in Forbes 2000 and are divided into the three operating models of mobile-only, fixed-only, and full-service. The empirical results show that full-service carriers exhibited a relatively higher overall technical efficiency from the year 2002 to 2004. As a result of growing Internet and broadband data services, both full-service and fixed-only carriers had an upward trend in the market. On the other hand, mobile-only carriers suffered a relative lower efficiency in the research period because of market saturation occurring since the year 2001.

中文摘要 -------------------------- vi
英文摘要 -------------------------- vii
誌謝 ------------------------------ viii
目錄 ------------------------------ ix
表目錄 ---------------------------- xi
圖目錄 ---------------------------- xii
附錄表 ---------------------------- xiii
縮寫和符號說明------------------------ xiv

一、 緒論 --------------------------- 1
1.1 研究背景 ----------------------- 1
1.2 研究動機 ----------------------- 2
1.3 研究問題 ----------------------- 3
1.4 研究目的 ----------------------- 6
1.5 研究架構 ----------------------- 7
1.6 文獻探討 ----------------------- 9
1.7 論文結構 ----------------------- 12

二、 通信產業演化趨勢 --------------- 13
2.1 通信產業發展簡史 --------------- 13
2.2 通信科技進化匯流 --------------- 15
2.2.1 傳統固網語音發展 --------------- 15
2.2.2 行動通信科技替代 --------------- 16
2.2.3 寬頻網際網路興起 --------------- 17
2.2.4 無線(Wireless)替代威脅---------- 17
2.2.5 IP匯流趨勢 ------------------ 19
2.3 電信管制政策開放 --------------- 20
2.3.1 電信市場自由化 ----------------- 21
2.3.2 電信業者民營化 ----------------- 22
2.4 電信市場消長更迭---------------- 23
2.4.1 固網語音營收衰退 --------------- 23
2.4.2 行動呼叫數超越固網-------------- 24
2.4.3 寬頻與資料營收是固網未來希望---- 25
2.4.4 網路電話 (VoIP)侵蝕固網語音市場- 27
2.4.5 PSTN 生命週期探討--------------- 29
2.4.6 台灣寬頻市場的發展-------------- 29
2.5 電信業者結構的演化-------------- 30

三、 行動替代固網 (FMS) 模式--------- 32
3.1 行動替代固網趨勢---------------- 32
3.1.1 普及率消長趨勢------------------ 32
3.1.2 行動普及率和ARPU消長趨勢-------- 33
3.1.3 台灣行動替代固網趨勢------------ 33
3.2 行動替代固網模式 --------------- 34
3.2.1 行動替代固網種類---------------- 34
3.2.2 四群國家行動替代固網模式-------- 36-42
3.3 普及替代的其它三個效應---------- 42
3.3.1 所得效應 -------------------- 42
3.3.2 可負擔效應 vs. 門檻效應--------- 47
3.4 FMS模式對業者經營的影響--------- 54

四、 經營效率的比較------------------ 54
4.1 本文理論基礎與假說-------------- 54
4.1.1 唯行動營運 (Mobile-only)-------- 55
4.1.2 唯固網營運 (Fixed-only)--------- 56
4.1.3 全業務營運 (Full-service)------- 57
4.2 資料包絡分析法------------------ 58
4.2.1 資料包絡分析法特點-------------- 58
4.2.2 CCR和BCC模式 ---------------- 59
4.2.3 投入及產出變數------------------ 61
4.3 受評估決策單位------------------ 63
4.3.1 受評估目標的選擇---------------- 63
4.3.2 研究資料來源 ---------------- 64
4.4 效率值實證結果------------------ 65
4.4.1 敘述統計 ----------------------- 65
4.4.2 同向性檢定 -------------------- 66
4.4.3 效率值比較 --------------------- 67
4.5 達效率值的電信業者統計---------- 70
4.5.1 五年皆達效率值的電信業者 ------- 70
4.5.2 達效率值類別的電信業者---------- 71
4.5.3 固定及變動規模報酬 ------------- 71
4.5.4 唯行動和唯固網的效率比較-------- 71
4.5.5 全業務、唯行動和唯固網的效率比較-72
4.6 已開發國家行動市場案例 -------75

五、 結論與建議 --------------------- 77
5.1 研究結論 -------------------- 77
5.2 策略意涵 -------------------- 79
5.2.1 電信管制政策 ---------------- 79
5.2.2 唯固網業者重新進入行動市場 ---- 81
5.2.3 全業務可延展綜效 -------------- 81
5.2.4 固網和行動業務整合趨勢 -------- 82
5.3 建議 -------------------------- 83
5.3.1 匯流下政府管制政策變遷 -------- 84
5.3.2 未來通信結構的組成-------------- 85

參考文獻 -------------------------- 86-88

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