臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

四十餘年來，從單純討論盈餘／股價間的關係，影響盈餘反映係數之因素、其他財務報告或會計資訊增額資訊內涵至攸關評價研究等，盈餘在其研究主題中，皆扮演缺一不可的要角，故本研究即以盈餘作為探討的對象。綜觀過去眾多盈餘預測模型，其研究的目的皆在於尋找最佳的盈餘預期值，然而至今何者為最佳的盈餘預測模型尚未有定論，故尋找可預測未來盈餘的其他資訊為現在研究者重視的議題，成為本研究的動機。
本研究探討資料包絡分析法(data envelopment analysis, 簡稱DEA)效率值是否具有預測未來盈餘的資訊價值，而與股價關聯且為評價模型的重要因子，期能提供後續攸關評價與盈餘預測等相關研究的參考。研究結果指出，DEA效率值具有預測未來盈餘之資訊價值，且即使在控制過去與當期盈餘及分析師預測的資訊情況下，仍與未來盈餘呈現顯著的正向關係。而以「資訊」與「衡量」觀點來探討DEA效率值與股價間的關聯性與評價功能，就資訊層面的實證結果顯示，DEA效率值與股價呈現高度關聯性，且即使在控制過去與當期盈餘的情況下， DEA效率值仍然具有資訊內涵。在衡量層面，實証結果支持DEA效率值具有輔助評價的功能。

In the past forty years, accounting researchers focus on the relationship between earning/price, determinant factors of earning response coefficient, (incremental) information content of other accounting (financial) information, and value-relevance research. In above topics earnings play an important role. There are so many earnings forecast models, but which one is the best still not have a consensus. Understanding what information helps forecast accounting earnings is an issue that has attracted considerable attention of researchers. This is also the motivation of our research.
In this paper, we examine that whether the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) efficiency value with the information value of predict future earning and information content. The empirical results indicate that DEA efficiency value have the information value of predict future earning, the relationship between DEA efficiency value and earning is significant positive, even after controlling for past and current earning and financial analyst forecast. Prior researches have shown that the relationship between earning and stock price is highly correlated. Hence our study further to examine the relationship between stock price and DEA efficiency value from information and measurement perspective. In the information perspective, the empirical results show that the association between stock price and DEA efficiency value is significant positive even after controlling past and current earning. In the measurement perspective, the results indicate that DEA efficiency value has the ability to improve the value measurement.

目 錄
中文摘要.................................................Ⅰ
英文摘要.................................................Ⅱ
致謝.............................................. Ⅲ
目錄.......................................................Ⅳ
表目錄...................................................Ⅵ
圖目錄...................................................Ⅷ
第一章 緒論.................................................1
1.1 研究動機與背景...................................1
1.2 研究目的.........................................7
1.3 論文架構.........................................8
第二章 文獻探討..........................................10
2.1 攸關評價研究之文獻探討............................11
2.2 盈餘預測研究之相關文獻探討........................21
2.3 DEA模型之介紹.....................................28
2.4 DEA應用於資本市場研究之文獻探討.................38
2.5 本研究之延伸......................................42
第三章 研究方法..........................................43
3.1 觀念性架構及研究假說的建立........................43
3.2 研究樣本與資料來源.................................47
3.3 變數定義與衡量...................................48
3.4 實證模型.............................................50
3.5 資料分析方法...........................................59
第四章 實證結果與分析......................................60
4.1 敘述性統計與相關分析.................................60
4.2 迴歸結果分析.........................................65
4.3 共線性檢定........................................80
4.4 極端值測試........................................81
第五章 結論與建議.........................................82
5.1 研究結論..........................................83
5.2 研究建議..........................................85
5.3 研究限制..........................................85
參考文獻...................................................86

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