臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

近來專案管理已被各行業廣泛使用，然而在執行專案時往往會遭遇許多不確定因素的影響，導致專案延宕甚至失敗，因此專案風險管理便突顯其重要性。Pinto(2002)更將專案風險管理列為專案管理未來發展的六大方向之一。在大多數的專案管理中，資源是有限的，因而除了原本專案中的資源以及預備金外，鮮少有多餘資源來處理偶發事件，所以專案資源的運用與配置更顯得重要，專案經理人如何運用有限的資源因應偶發事件，如何使風險處置具有效益，是值得討論的議題。然而目前對專案風險處置的研究中，卻未將其考慮在內，而僅以最低成本為考量(范淼1999，周慧瑜2002)。然而除了成本之外，應將風險處置效益列入考量，因此本研究將以風險處置效益作為專案風險處置的核心。然而Santiago and Vakili(2005)指出，管理彈性(Management flexibility)在研發專案中具有效益是不證自明的事實。因而增加管理彈性亦是一種風險處置的方法。最後經由模式模擬的方式，發現管理彈性並非越大越好。

摘要 I
Abstract II
誌謝 III
目錄 IV
圖目錄 VII
表目錄 VIII
1 緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 3
1.3研究流程 4
2 文獻探討 6
2.1專案風險管理 6
2.2專案風險處置相關理論 7
2.3處置效益與成本 15
2.4實質選擇權方法 17
2.5文獻評析 25
3 風險處置效益模式發展 27
3.1模式的基本理念 27
3.1.1風險事件資訊量水準與發生機率的基本概念 27
3.1.2風險處置行為的基本概念 28
3.2風險處置效益描述 30
3.2.1處置後風險事件資訊量水準之提升程度(△V) 31
3.2.2處置後風險事件發生機率之降低程度(△P) 38
3.2.3風險處置效益 41
3.3模式建構 44
4 模式分析 46
4.1模擬背景介紹 46
4.2模式模擬 48
4.2.1類型一(TypeⅠ)模擬分析 48
4.2.2類型二(TypeⅡ)模擬分析 52
4.2.3類型三(TypeⅢ)模擬分析 55
4.2.4類型四(TypeⅣ)模擬分析 57
4.3模式模擬分析的結果與意義 58
5 結論與未來研究方向 62
5.1結論 62
5.2管理意涵 63
5.3研究限制 65
5.4未來研究方向 66
參考文獻 67

中文部份：
[1] 周慧瑜，2002，營建工程專案承包商風險處置決策模式之研究，台大商研
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[2] 范淼，1999，計畫風險事件之處置－分析模型之建立與應用，台大商研所
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