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研究生:高友笙
研究生(外文):You-shang Kao
論文名稱:台灣地區的儲蓄動態之探討─門檻自我迴歸模型之應用
論文名稱(外文):The Analysis of Saving Dynamics in Taiwan : The Application of the Threshold Autoregressive Model
指導教授:邱魏頌正邱魏頌正引用關係
指導教授(外文):Song-zan Chiouwei
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:南華大學
系所名稱:經濟學研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2006
畢業學年度:94
語文別:中文
論文頁數:57
中文關鍵詞:儲蓄成長經濟成長門檻自我迴歸模型
外文關鍵詞:Saving GrowthEconomic GrowthThreshold Autoregressive Model
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  有關於經濟成長對儲蓄之影響的實證研究,國內外的文獻已經有廣大的研究成果,然而這些文獻亦指出,經濟成長與儲蓄之間存在有雙向因果 ( two-way causality ) 的關係。所以儲蓄成長的動態變化在不同的經濟狀態之下是否會發生結構性轉變的現象,以及兩者的關係是否存在有非線性的門檻效果,則是本研究所欲進一步去探討的課題。本研究引用了門檻迴歸模型 ( Threshold Regressive Model ) ,以實質的國民生產毛額成長率 ( the growth rate of real GNP ) 做為門檻變數,來探討台灣地區在不同的國民生產毛成長率門檻值之下,經濟成長對儲蓄成長的效果有何不同。根據本研究的實證結果,支持經濟成長對儲蓄成長之間存在有門檻的效果,亦即在不同的經濟狀態下,儲蓄成長會呈現出不同的型態。當實質國民生產毛額成長率是低於 6.475 % 的情形下,對儲蓄成長率的影響為負向且效果是並不顯著的;而當實質國民生產毛額成長率是高於 6.475 % 時,對儲蓄成長率卻有正向且效果顯著的影響。此表示在過去有關於儲蓄與經濟成長研究之文獻中所支持的,經濟成長與儲蓄成長間存在有雙向因果之現象,經濟的持續成長同時可以促進儲蓄成長的結論,只有在高經濟成長率的狀態下才會成立,但是在低經濟成長率的狀態下,兩者間的正向關係便會消失。
  This paper applies the Threshold Regressive Model of Hansen ( 1999 ) to investigate the existence of the growth rate of real GNP threshold effects in the relationship between saving growth and economic growth . Results indicate that there exists a real GNP growth rate threshold effect in Taiwan. Previous studies support the view that economic growth may promote saving growth. However, the conclusion drawn from the empirical findings suggest that it can only be achieved under low and moderate growth. In addition, the threshold level of growth below which economic growth significantly promotes saving growth is estimated at 6.475 %. We use various of economic growth to test the robustness, and also compare the empirical results with related literature.
論文摘要 ……………………………………………………………………….…... i
目錄 …………………………………………………………………………….….. ii
圖表目錄 ………………………………………………………………..……….… v
 
第一章 緒論 ………………………………………………………….……….…. 1
第一節、 研究背景與動機 ………………………..…….……………......… 1
第二節、 研究目的 ………………..……………...........………………….... 5
 
第二章 文獻回顧 ……………………………………………………..………..... 8
第一節、 儲蓄與經濟成長 …………………………….……….………....... 8
第二節、 儲蓄成長與變數定義 …………..……..…………….................… 11
 
第三章 研究方法 ……………………………………………………..……….… 16
第一節、 儲蓄成長模型 …………………………………..……................... 16
第二節、 單根檢定 …………………………..…………..………................. 21
第三節、 門檻迴歸模型 …………………………………..…..……….…… 26
第四節、 門檻效果檢定…………………………………..…..………….….. 32
 
第四章 資料與實證分析 ……………………………………………….…….…. 35
第一節、 資料來源與定義 ……………..………………….………….......... 35
第二節、 單根檢定 …………..…………..……..………….……………….. 41
第三節、 門檻迴歸模型的檢定與參數的估計 ………………………….… 43
 
第五章 結論與建議 ………………………………………….………………..… 49
第一節、 結論 …………..…………..……..………….……….….............… 49
第二節、 未來研究之方向 ……………..………………….……….…….... 52
 
參考文獻 ………………………………………………………………………...… 54
 
表 圖 目 錄
【表3-2-1】ADF 單根檢定統計量 …………………………………..……..…... 25
【表4-1-1】台灣地區各變數的基本統計量 …………………………..……...… 37
【表4-1-2】台灣地區各解釋變數的相關係數矩陣 …………………..……....... 37
【表4-2-1】台灣地區儲蓄成長函數中各變數的 ADF 單根檢定表 …..…..…. 42
【表4-3-1】實質國民生產毛額的門檻效果檢定 ……………………..…..……. 47
【表4-3-2】台灣儲蓄成長函數的門檻迴歸模型估計 ………………..…..….… 48
【圖1-2-1】研究架構流程圖 ……………………………………………….…… 7
【圖4-1-1】台灣地區實質儲蓄額成長率的時間趨勢圖 ………….……...….… 38
【圖4-1-2】台灣地區實質經濟成長率的時間趨勢圖 …………….…….……... 38
【圖4-1-3】台灣地區名目存款加權平均利率變動率的時間趨勢圖 .…….…... 39
【圖4-1-4】台灣地區扶養比變動率的時間趨勢圖 ………………….…….…... 39
【圖4-1-5】台灣地區實質國外資本淨流入額變動率的時間趨勢圖 ….……… 40
【圖4-1-6】台灣地區實質政府預算盈餘/赤字變動率的時間趨勢圖 …..….…. 40
【圖4-3-1】實質國民生產毛額的門檻效果檢定圖 ……………………….…… 47
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