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研究生:王義勝
研究生(外文):Yi-Sheng Wang
論文名稱:盈餘平穩化的動機與產業特性之研究
論文名稱(外文):A Study of the Motivates of Smoothing Incomeand Industry Characteristic
指導教授:薛兆亨薛兆亨引用關係
指導教授(外文):Weissor Shiue
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立高雄第一科技大學
系所名稱:財務管理所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2006
畢業學年度:94
語文別:中文
論文頁數:60
中文關鍵詞:盈餘平穩化盈餘管理裁決性應計項目
外文關鍵詞:Smoothing IncomeEarnings ManagementDiscretionary Accruals
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摘要
「盈餘管理」(Earnings Management)一直以來都是整個資本市場熱衷的議題。在國外,自實是性會計研究(Positive Accounting Research)被提出,更掀起學術上對「盈餘管理」研究的風潮。反觀台灣,近年來,在企業不斷爆發財務危機的警訊後,除了引發學者對財務危機預測的研究外,更深入去探討危機發生前企業內部「盈餘管理」的動機。過去研究中,在盈餘操縱主要的工具有三:一、會計方法的選擇,二、交易時點的控制,三、裁決性應計項目。研究發現,效果以裁決性應計項目最佳,交易時點控制次之,會計方法相對而言,較無法達成效果。所以,為了達到改變盈餘價值攸關性的目的,經理人得藉裁決性應計項目來達成企業損益平穩化(Smoothing Income)、澡飾( Big Bath)等盈餘管理的目標。本篇文章運用Modified-Jones模型估計出真正的裁決性應計項目,透過繼續經營部門淨利與裁量性應計項目,觀察台灣各產業之上市公司是否長期存在的盈餘平穩化的現象,最後,進一步以過去、當期、未來盈餘、債劵條款假說或債務/權益比假說以及政治成本假說來分析為何存在盈餘平穩化的效果。
本文發現台灣上市企業經理人為了達成盈餘管理的目的,普遍會使用裁決性應計項目來平穩化盈餘,此外,經理人在運用裁決性應計項目的同時,也會對前期盈餘、當期盈餘、債約條款及政治成本假說作考量。
Abstract
Earnings Management is a popular issue in the capital market. Since Positive Accounting Research is provided by scholars on abroad, earnings management research forms a trend in academic circles. In recent years, after enterprises have continuously happened financial crisis, the events not only attract scholars to research deeply but also explore the motives of earnings management in these failure enterprises in Taiwan. In the previous researches, there are three main instruments of earnings management, first, the choice of accounting Method; second, the control of transaction date; third, discretionary accruals. These results show the effect of discretionary accruals is better than the other methods, but accounting methods are unable to achieve the effect of earnings management. As a result, in order to aim the purpose of earnings management, the management makes use of discretionary accruals to obtain the objective of smoothing income and big bath. The paper makes use of Modified-Jones Model to estimate the real discretionary accruals. By using continuous operating income and discretionary accruals, we observe the phenomenon of smoothing income in listed companies in Taiwan. Finally, the paper explores the motivations of smoothing income by past, current, future earning, Debt covenant or debt/equity hypothesis and Political process hypothesis.
We find that to achieve the purpose of earnings management, the management in listed firms usually use discretionary accruals to smooth income. In addition, when the management uses discretionary accruals, they also consider past earning, current earning, Debt covenant or debt/equity hypothesis and Political process hypothesis.
目錄
摘要..................................................................................................................................i
Abstract............................................................................................................................ii
誌謝................................................................................................................................iii
目錄................................................................................................................................iv
表目錄..............................................................................................................................v
圖目錄............................................................................................................................vii
壹、緒論..........................................................................................................................1
一、研究動機與目的..............................................................................................1
二、論文架構..........................................................................................................2
貳、文獻探討..................................................................................................................4
一、盈餘管理..........................................................................................................4
二、裁決性應計項目與盈餘管理檢測模型..........................................................7
三、實是性會計理論............................................................................................14
四、盈餘平穩化....................................................................................................16
參、研究方法................................................................................................................18
一、研究流程........................................................................................................18
二、研究假說........................................................................................................19
三、模型建立與變數定義....................................................................................20
四、樣本選取與來源............................................................................................23
肆、實証結果與分析....................................................................................................24
一、 敘述性統計分析....................................................................................24
二、迴歸分析........................................................................................................26
伍、結論與建議............................................................................................................42
一、研究結論........................................................................................................42
二、研究建議........................................................................................................45
參考文獻........................................................................................................................46
v
表目錄
表2 - 1盈餘管理預測模型彙總表...............................................................................12
表3 - 1各產業觀察的樣本數………………………………………………………….23
表4 - 1各產業實質盈餘高低與裁決性應計項目使用之關係探討………………….24
表4 - 2 水泥業模型的所有變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果............................27
表4 - 3水泥業模型的個別變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果...............................27
表4 - 4食品業模型的所有變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果...............................27
表4 - 5食品業模型的個別變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果...............................27
表4 - 6塑膠業模型的所有變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果...............................28
表4 - 7塑膠業模型的個別變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果...............................28
表4 - 8紡織業模型的所有變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果...............................28
表4 - 9紡織業模型的個別變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果...............................28
表4 - 10機電業模型的所有變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................29
表4 - 11機電業模型的個別變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................29
表4 - 12電線電纜業模型的所有變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.....................29
表4 - 13電線電纜業模型的個別變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.....................29
表4 - 14化學業模型的所有變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................30
表4 - 15化學業模型的個別變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................30
表4 - 16玻璃陶瓷業模型的所有變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.....................30
表4 - 17玻璃陶瓷業模型的個別變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.....................30
表4 - 18造紙業模型的所有變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................31
表4 - 19造紙業模型的個別變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................31
表4 - 20鋼鐵業模型的所有變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................31
表4 - 21鋼鐵業模型的個別變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................31
表4 - 22運輸工具業模型的所有變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.....................32
表4 - 23運輸工具業模型的個別變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.....................32
vi
表4 - 24運輸業模型的所有變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................32
表4 - 25運輸業模型的個別變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................32
表4 - 26電子業模型的所有變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................33
表4 - 27電子業模型的個別變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................33
表4 - 28營建業模型的所有變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................33
表4 - 29營建業模型的個別變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................33
表4 - 30輪胎業模型的所有變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................34
表4 - 31輪胎業模型的個別變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................34
表4 - 32觀光業模型的所有變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................34
表4 - 33觀光業模型的個別變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................34
表4 - 34百貨業模型的所有變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................35
表4 - 35百貨業模型的個別變數對裁決性應計項目的影響結果.............................35
表4 - 36各產業變數與裁決性應計項目關係彙總.....................................................41
vii
圖目錄
圖1 - 1研究架構.............................................................................................................3
圖3 - 1研究架構圖……………………………………………………………………18
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