臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

雖然台灣國民所得平均已達一萬六千元美金，符合國際認定為富裕國家的標準，但兒童虐待的事件仍逐年增加，如何事先預測此類暴力事件以預防悲劇發生，是一件相當值得研究的議題。雖然目前有相當多的研究專注在探討兒童虐待本質和所造成其因素的問題，然而甚少研究是著重在兒童事件的偵測及預防機制的建立。本研究將以統計學習方法和類神經網路人工智慧等方法來建立兒童虐待的預測模式，分別以邏輯式迴歸分析、倒傳遞式類神經網路(BPN)和支援向量機(SVM)等三種方法建立的兒童虐待事件的預測模式，先經由五摺交互驗證法來訓練預測模式及驗證預測結果的分類正確率，以Type I(型一)及Type II(型二)誤差分類表來評估模式的預測能力，而後以成對t檢定及ROC曲線面積圖評估三種預測模式之績效以取得最佳的預測模式。最後本研究的分析結果顯示SVM建立的預測模式在預測兒童虐待事件的表現為最佳，本研究將SVM所建立的預測模式，應用ASP、Matlab 7.0.1及LIBSVM for Matlab實作成一個兒童虐待專家預測系統，此有助於兒童虐待事件發生的預測及預防。

Though the GNP of Taiwan has already been up to 16,000 US dollars, it has accorded with the standard that World Bank regards as a rich country, but child abuse incidents increase year by year. It is worth while studying how to predict the occurrence of the child abuse in advance to prevent consequent tragedy. Despite of a lot of researches have discussed the question of child abuse, but few studies probe into the marital violence and the child abuse simultaneously. This study builds a predication model of child abuse caused by marital violence based on sociodemograpghy and marital violence factor, which is analyzed by Logistic Regression, Back-propagation Neural Networks (BPN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) model. The prediction models were verified and assessed via 5-fold cross-validation and paired t-test. The misclassification errors are analyzed in terms of Type I and Type II. In addition, a ROC curve is provided to evaluate the prediction ability. Finally, experimental result of the research showed that the prediction ability of SVM model is the best than the model of Logistic Regression and BPN. We used SVM model to build a child abuse prediction’s expert system, which is useful to predict and prevent child abuse.

誌謝 I
摘要 II
ABSTRACT III
目錄 IV
表索引 VI
圖索引 VII
一、緒論 1
二、兒童虐待的類型及文獻回顧 7
2.1.兒童虐待 7
2.1.1.兒童虐待之定義 7
2.1.2.兒童虐待之類型 7
2.2.文獻回顧 9
三、研究資料的處理分析 12
3.1.樣本之定義 12
3.2.研究變項定義與衡量 13
3.3.因素分析 15
四、研究方法 17
4.1邏輯式迴歸分析 17
4.2.倒傳遞式類神經網路 18
4.3.支援向量機 20
五、預測模式之建立、分析及實作 24
5.1.建立預測模式 24
5.1.1.邏輯式迴歸模式建立及分析 27
5.1.2.倒傳遞式類神經網路模式建立及分析 29
5.1.3.支援向量機的預測模式建立及分析 31
5.2.三種模式效能之評估 35
5.3.系統實作 41
5.3.1.支援向量機軟體工具 41
5.3.2. 網頁技術 41
5.3.3.系統畫面 42
六、結論及研究建議 44
6.1.結論 44
6.2. 研究建議 46
七、參考文獻 47
中文部分 47
英文部分 48

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