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研究生:許惠婷
研究生(外文):Hui-Ting Hsu
論文名稱:選擇開放原始碼或付費軟體?動態擴散研究
論文名稱(外文):To Adopt Open Source or Proprietary Software? The Diffusion Dynamics.
指導教授:陳鴻基陳鴻基引用關係鄭興鄭興引用關係
指導教授(外文):Houn-Gee ChenHsing K. Cheng
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立清華大學
系所名稱:科技管理研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2006
畢業學年度:94
語文別:英文
論文頁數:56
中文關鍵詞:開放原始碼軟體Bass理論與模型產品擴散擁有成本口碑效應
外文關鍵詞:Open Source SoftwareBass ModelProduct DiffusionOwnership CostWord-of-Mouth Effect
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開放原始碼被喻為近年來最有發展前景的軟體技術之一,許多成功的開放原始碼軟體儼然已成為使用者在選擇付費軟體以外的替代方案。過去的開放原始碼軟體研究多半著重於經濟影響、社群的功能與運作、軟體開發者的貢獻動機,以及近期的實際企業建置案例。
本研究為首度提出以Bass理論為架構的軟體擴散模型,並於傳統常見於行銷研究的口碑效應及外部因素之外,進一步整合使用者擁有成本與軟體品質為決策影響要素,以檢視開放原始碼軟體與付費軟體之間的動態競爭情形。本研究並且實際以網頁伺服器軟體—開放原始碼軟體Apache與付費軟體Microsoft IIS—為驗証。
研究結果顯示:(1)軟體品質及使用者擁有成本都無法影響開放原始碼軟體使用者的採用決策。(2)開放原始碼軟體不常見於大眾傳媒,一方面為缺乏資源,一方面為其使用者依靠口碑效應去接收產品訊息,而不習慣於外部刺激。(3)使用者擁有成本及口碑效應對擴散付費軟體有負面影響。(4)付費軟體仰賴大眾傳媒等外部刺激因素去增加使用者對其印象。
因此本研究建議開放原始碼軟體應持續發展社群間的合作與競爭,使開放原始碼軟體專案產生自然淘汰;同時建議付費軟體不宜一味仰賴大眾傳媒工具,亦需注意品質與使用者擁有成本以符合顧客滿意度,否則負面口碑效應將會使潛在使用者卻步。
Open Source Software (OSS), forecasted as one of the most promising technologies, has become an under-budget alternative in addition to costly proprietary software. Extant literature of OSS focuses on community functions, developers’ motivation, economic effects, and recent implementation cases. This thesis is among the first to examine the competition dynamics between OSS and proprietary software by proposing a Generalized Bass Model-based diffusion model. In addition to the traditional innovation and imitation coefficients in marketing, this model integrates software ownership cost and software quality into it. Moreover, this research applies the model to empirically examine the web server software market where Apache and Microsoft IIS compete with each other.
Under the competitive circumstance of software, this research finds that both software quality and ownership cost have no significant impact on users’ choices toward OSS. These users do not feel excited about getting exposed to external marketing factors because the diffusion of OSS is mostly through word-of-mouth effect. Hence this research suggests that OSS promotes the cooperation and competition among OSS communities. Well functioned OSS communities will naturally edge out the unqualified ones and produce decent programs to be widely adopted. This research also shows that proprietary software heavily relies on mass media to impress potential customers. Meanwhile, proprietary software firms suffer negative influence from both word-of-mouth effect and ownership cost. The managerial implication is that proprietary software has to set a reasonable license price and provide overall satisfied products; otherwise, customers’ severe criticism would be widely spread through word-of-mouth effect and discourages potential customers from adoption.
TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Research Background 1
1.2 Research Motivation 3
1.3 Research Problems 4
1.4 Structure of the Thesis 6
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 7
2.1 Open Source Software 7
2.2 Diffusion Model 12
CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH MODEL AND METHODOLOGY 17
3.1 Research Model and Hypotheses 17
3.2 Research Methodology 25
CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH FINDINGS 32
4.1 Empirical results 32
4.2 Fit statistics 41
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION 46
REFRENCES 49




List of Tables

Table 1: Summary of Research Findings 33
Table 2: Empirical Results of Parameter Tests 34
Table 3: Summary of Fit Statistics 42




List of Figures

Figure 1: Monthly Data on Adoption of Apache and IIS 26
Figure 2: The Cumulative Adoption of Web Server Market, Apache, and IIS 27
Figure 3: Monthly Bug Counts of Apache and IIS 30
Figure 4: Monthly Ownership Cost of Apache and IIS 30
Figure 5: The Prediction of OSS 42
Figure 6: The Prediction of Proprietary Software 43
Figure 7: Volume of Web Servers in The Last Decade 43
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