臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

亞洲夏季季風的活躍與暫歇受季內振盪（ISO，Intraseasonal Oscillation）的影響很大，因此若能改善ISO的預報，將有助於亞洲季風之預報。本研究採用ECHAM4 T42及T106（European Centre,Hamburg）模式之日降雨值進行ISO評估。分析結果顯示，ECHAM4 T42模擬，無論是氣候模擬或是各年模擬，至五月份相關係數都下降，到了七、八月回升。五月份模擬變差的時間與對流往北移動的時間相符，而運用ECHAM T106模擬後，可使模擬結果變得更好，但五月份的空間相關係數仍較其他月份低。T42模式透過傳統系集平均，可有效增加模擬結果，無論是氣候模擬或是年際變化，十個模擬之傳統系集平均與五個模擬之傳統系集平均結果相差不多；運用系集模擬之後，無論在在訓練時間（training period）及預報時間（forecast period），系集模擬比單一模擬要好，透過統計回歸模擬又較傳統平均系集模擬佳，且透過統計回歸模擬，五月模擬較其他月份差的現象可獲得改善。
五月份30～60天降雨與赤道東太平洋、印度洋SST呈正相關，與熱帶西太平洋SST有呈負相關；模式對SST年際變化之反應與觀測相似，當東太平洋SST偏暖，西太平洋SST偏冷，在西太平洋地區30～60天振盪位置偏南，然而在模擬較差年時，在西太平洋地區30～60天振盪位置，較觀測位置偏北，降雨預報較觀測差；此外無論是模擬較佳年或是模擬較差年，印度洋地區預報均偏北；經過統計回歸方式調整後，對西太平洋地區及印度洋地區預報均有改善。

致謝-----------------------------------------------------------Ⅰ
摘要-----------------------------------------------------------Ⅱ
目錄-----------------------------------------------------------Ⅳ
圖表說明-------------------------------------------------------Ⅵ
一、 前言------------------------------------------------------1
二、 資料研究及方法
2.1資料分析與濾波方法-------------------------------------4
2.2評鑑模式的方法-----------------------------------------5
2.3多重模式系集模擬線性迴歸方法---------------------------6
三、 T42與T106亞洲季風區季內振盪模擬-------------------------10
3.1 30～60天季內振盪的氣候模擬---------------------------10
3.2 30～60天季內振盪的年際模擬--------------------------11
四、 T42系集回歸與T106模擬亞洲季風區之比較-------------------14
4.1 T42傳統系集平均模擬亞洲季風區之預報------------------14
4.1.1 30～60天季內振盪的氣候模擬---------------------14
4.1.2 30～60天季內振盪的年際變化模擬-----------------16
4.2 T42與T106回歸系集模擬亞洲季風區之預報---------------17
4.3小結--------------------------------------------------20
五、 邊界條件SST對30~60天降雨季內振盪之影響------------------22
六、 結論與討論------------------------------------------------27
參考文獻-------------------------------------------------------30
附圖表---------------------------------------------------------38

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