臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究從港埠整體規劃的觀點探討港埠運輸系統的供需均衡問題。首先探討多種運量預測模式於台灣地區港埠貨櫃運量的適用性與適用時機。本研究採用時間序列分層相關分析(Time Series Hierarchy Regression;TSHR;改良型時間序列)、修正灰色飽和預測模式(Modify Grey Verhulst; M.G.V.)與傳統常用的迴歸分析、時間序列方法及灰色GM(1,1)預測模式進行比較。由結果發現本研究所提出之改良方法，以台灣地區進出口貨櫃量預測為例，時間序列分層相關分析除了長期進口貨櫃呈現S型曲線變化時預測結果較差外，其餘誤差都在10%以內。修正灰色飽和預測模式則特別適用在長期進口貨櫃呈現S型曲線變化階段，誤差在5%以下。其次，本研究從港埠系統別的觀點分析船舶到達與服務時間分配之特性，經研究結果顯示定期貨櫃航線雖依定期班表營運，惟其可能因船班提前或延誤及觀察系統別的不同.等因素影響造成到達分佈形態有所不同。另外，一個船公司並不只有經營一條航線而己，在所有之航線合併起來以後，經本研究驗證其船舶到港時間分佈會依單一航線→單一碼頭→單一貨櫃中心→全港，順序逐漸演變為隨機到達分佈，並證明船舶到達分佈形態依觀察系統別變化的情形。最後，本研究採用等候理論與系統模擬方法，探討碼頭船席規模與機具設施數的最適配置，以提供決策者進行港埠整體規劃的依據。

In this study we discuss the balance of demand and supply of the port system from the view point of the port planning. Firstly, we focus on comparing the methods for forecasting container throughput, taking the of example for container ports in Taiwan. These methods are Time Series Hierarchy Regression (THSR) model, Modify Grey Verhulst (MGV) model, Regression Analysis (R.A.), Time Series Analysis (TS) and GM(1,1) forecast model. The results show that the THSR model is suitable for forecast container throughput in Taiwan, but not for the import condition throughput. The MGV model is suitable for forecast import container throughput in Taiwan, especially, when the throughput increases according to the S-cure. Inaddition, this study discusses the ship arrival and service distribution. The periodical container liner operates according to a regular schedule, but its distribution may be influenced by factors such as advanced or delayed sailing dates and distinct observation systems. Furthermore, a shipping company may operate more than one shipping line; when all the shipping lines are merged, this study demonstrates that the ship arrival distribution will be shifted from Singular shipping line → Singular berth → Singular container terminal → Entire port accordingly, from approximately k=6 of the Erlang distribution to k=1 of the random arrival distribution; and proves that the ship arrival distribution is affected by distinct observation systems.
Finally, this study classified both ships and berths using actual data and then compared the resultant differences of the scenarios with and without classification with the simulation. The comparison shows that the outcomes with and without the classification of ships and berths are located opposite to the outcomes obtained from the simulation, which was deliberately constructed and rendered sufficiently accurate results. The optimal scale of cranes of container berths is located between the outcomes of the two proposed scenarios. There is no longer a need to establish a complex and tedious simulation model. The method proposed in this study provides a convenient way to determine the optimum number of berths and cranes for container berths.

第一章 緒論 …………………………………… 1
1.1 研究動機與目的 ……………………………………… 1
1.2 研究範圍與限制 …………………………………………… 2
1.3 研究架構與方法 ………………………………………… 3
1.4 研究內容與流程 …………………………………………… 5

第二章 文獻回顧 ……………………………………………… 7
2.1 港埠運量預測相關文獻…………………………………… 7
2.2 港埠系統設施規劃相關文獻………………………………… 17

第三章 港埠貨櫃運量預測…………………………………… 32
3.1港埠運量預測之理念與目的………………………………… 32
3.2台灣地區歷年進出口貨櫃運量與成長趨勢分析…………… 33
3.3各種港埠運量預測方法之比較……………………………… 39
3.4港埠運量預測預測模式的建立……………………………… 44
3.5運量預測結果之比較………………………………………… 71
3.6小結…………………………………………………………… 72

第四章 港埠等候系統特性分析………………………… 74
4.1 港埠系統到達時間分佈驗證………………………………… 74
4.2 港埠系統服務時間分佈驗證………………………………… 84
4.3 港埠系統指標分析…………………………………………… 88
4.4 小結………………………………………………………… 92

第五章 港埠系統設施初始值……………………………… 93
5.1 等候系統設施初始值之探討 ……………………………… 93
5.2 設施初始值於港埠系統之應用……………………………… 96
5.3 設施初始值的求算方法……………………………………… 97
5.4 實例分析……………………………………………………… 107
5.5 小結………………………………………………………… 110

第六章 貨櫃碼頭設施之規劃………………………………… 112
6.1 基隆港貨櫃碼頭設施之現況分析…………………………… 112
6.2 貨櫃碼頭設施規劃之理論解析……………………………… 118
6.3 貨櫃碼頭設施規劃之模擬解析……………………………… 122
6.4 模式設計與驗證…………………………………………… 129
6.5 情境分析……………………………………………………… 129
6.6 模擬結果之分析……………………………………………… 140
6.7 貨櫃碼頭設施規劃理論解析與系統模擬之比較…………… 141
6.8 小結…………………………………………………………… 142

第七章 結論與建議…………………………………………… 143
7.1 結論…………………………………………………………… 143
7.2 建議…………………………………………………………… 145

參考文獻…………………………………………………………… 146

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